{"id":669093,"date":"2025-07-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/28\/structural-reforms-fuelling-growth-in-egypt-deutsche-bank-says\/"},"modified":"2025-07-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T00:00:00","slug":"structural-reforms-fuelling-growth-in-egypt-deutsche-bank-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/28\/structural-reforms-fuelling-growth-in-egypt-deutsche-bank-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Structural reforms fuelling growth in Egypt, Deutsche Bank says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Macrostructural reforms power 3Q growth: <\/strong>The economy expanded by 4.8% in the 3Q FY 2024-2025, marking the highest growth rate in three years, thanks to ongoing macrostructural reforms, Deutsche Bank said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. Most of the figures published in the note matched the government\u2019s data released<\/a> in late June.<\/p>\n

The growth momentum is primarily fueled by the continued recovery of the non-oil <\/strong>sect<\/strong>or<\/strong>, which saw a 16% y-o-y growth, a sharp rebound from a 4% contraction recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year. The sector contributed 1.9 percentage points to the overall GDP. Strong expansion was also seen across other sectors, including telecoms (14.7% from 13.9%) and tourism (23%, from 7.1%), with both contributing a cumulative of 1 percentage point to the overall GDP.<\/p>\n

Hydrocarbon + Suez Canal poised for recovery: <\/strong>Despite continued underperformance, with the hydrocarbon sector falling 10.4% y-o-y and the Suez Canal revenues dropping 23% y-o-y during the quarter, Deutsche Bank expects a gradual improvement in their contributions. This anticipated rebound stems from two key factors: renewed investments in the extractive sector \u2014 following the government\u2019s efforts to settle the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation\u2019s debt to foreign oil companies \u2014 and a potential return of Red Sea shipping activity to pre-disruption levels, the German investment bank noted.<\/p>\n

On the back of this stronger-than-expected growth<\/strong>, Deutsche Bank has slightly revised up its growth forecast for the fiscal year 2024-2025 to 4.3%. This projection is slightly higher than the government\u2019s 4.0% target, though the government itself also expects the growth to exceed this goal.<\/p>\n

Growth outlook brightens for FY 2025-2026:<\/strong> GDP growth is forecast to expand 4.8% this fiscal year, on the back of a continued improvement in domestic demand, as the CBE moves forward with its monetary easing cycle amid declining inflation, the bank noted. This is slightly above the IMF\u2019s projection<\/a> of 4.1%.<\/p>\n

Inflation outlook:<\/strong> Deutsche Bank sees headline inflation in Egypt averaging 15-16% in 2025, before declining to 10% in 2026. \u201cIn terms of the remaining upward pressures, we expect 3Q to be mainly about the interactive impact of the fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented on inflation,\u201d the bank wrote.<\/p>\n

However, 4Q 2025 is expected to bring further increases in fuel prices around the <\/strong>c<\/strong>ompletion of<\/strong>the fifth and sixth reviews<\/a><\/strong> of our USD 8 bn IMF loan program<\/strong>, as the government moves to align local fuel prices with global ones, the investment bank said. Additionally, a 12% increase in tobacco prices is also expected in November.<\/p>\n

This is relatively close to the IMF forecast<\/strong>, as it sees inflation reaching 15.3% on average during FY 2025-2026, before cooling down to 10.7% on average in the upcoming fiscal year. Annual headline urban inflation fell<\/a> to 14.9% in June, from 16.8% in May, ending an upward trend that extended over three consecutive months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The hydrocarbon sector and the Suez Canal are poised for recovery, says the German bank<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":669094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[2203,104,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-669093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a462a981-d025-4b24-9788-40562feac75c","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1412.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Structural reforms are fuelling growth in Egypt, Deutsche Bank says","related_issue":[669080],"teaser":"The hydrocarbon sector and the Suez Canal are poised for recovery, says the German bank","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/7\/.81637f81-740a-4920-a4c5-fdd9178213a0.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nStructural reforms fuelling growth in Egypt, Deutsche Bank says - 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Meanwhile, construction and non-oil industries are getting the support they need\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543602,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/09\/tourism-recovery-gas-exports-driving-5-5-growth-this-fiscal-year-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":669093,"position":2},"title":"Tourism recovery + gas exports driving 5.5% growth this fiscal year -World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"World Bank says tourism rebound, gas exports driving strong growth in Egypt: The World Bank has laid out the drivers for its January prediction that our economy will grow5.5% in FY2021-2022, pointing to a recovery in the tourism sector and rising gas exports. \u201cA gradual return of tourists, continued growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/116.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593860,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/13\/egypts-economy-to-grow-at-5-8-clip-in-fy-2019-2020-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":669093,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at 5.8% clip in FY 2019-2020- World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The World Bank has maintained its expectations that Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 5.8% clip this fiscal year and accelerate to 6% in FY 2020-2021 \u2014 assuming that macroeconomic reforms continue and the business environment improves, it says in its latest economic update (pdf). This is slightly lower than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567053,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/12\/egypts-economy-to-grow-5-9-this-year-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":669093,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 5.9% this year -World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 5.9% this year -World Bank: Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 5.9% clip in FY2020-2021, with the growth rate set to accelerate to 6% in FY2021-2022 and remain at that level throughout the following fiscal year, according to the World Bank\u2019s Global Economic Prospects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/567.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568585,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/28\/heres-where-international-organizations-see-the-egyptian-economy-heading-and-how-it-can-improve\/","url_meta":{"origin":669093,"position":5},"title":"Here\u2019s where international organizations see the Egyptian economy heading \u2014 and how it can improve","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Here\u2019s where international organizations see the Egyptian economy heading \u2014 and how it can improve: The local press was out with a series of interviews with international organizations and finance institutions on their outlook for Egypt\u2019s economy and where they see the country\u2019s reform priorities should be moving forward. Highlights\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=669093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669093\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/669080"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/669094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=669093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=669093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=669093"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=669093"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=669093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}