{"id":668562,"date":"2025-07-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/17\/key-takeaways-from-the-imfs-fourth-loan-review\/"},"modified":"2025-07-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T00:00:00","slug":"key-takeaways-from-the-imfs-fourth-loan-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/17\/key-takeaways-from-the-imfs-fourth-loan-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Key takeaways from the IMF\u2019s fourth loan review"},"content":{"rendered":"

The IMF sees Egypt facing a financing gap of USD 5.8 bn in FY 2025-26<\/strong>, compared to USD 11.4 bn in FY 2024-25, the IMF said in its country staff report (pdf)<\/a> for the fourth review of our USD 8 bn loan program. The figure is the fund\u2019s projection for our financing gap after accounting for disbursals from the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) as bridging part of the gap. Here are the takeaways from the report:<\/p>\n

The government has secured financing commitments for the next 12 months from<\/strong> international partners<\/strong>, which, together with other sources of revenue, will completely close the country\u2019s financing gap, according to the report. This includes financing related to the sale of \u201cdevelopment rights or direct real estate sales to external partners of at least USD 3 bn,\u201d the IMF noted. Arab countries have also provided \u201cassurances\u201d they will maintain their deposits \u2014 collectively worth USD 18.3 bn \u2014 at the Central Bank of Egypt until the end of our EFF arrangement in October 2026, unless they are used for the purchase of equities, according to the report.<\/p>\n

Our external financing needs are projected to reach USD 30.4 bn during this fiscal year<\/strong>, before declining to USD 27.5 bn in the FY 2026-27. This marks an increase from the IMF\u2019s third review, when it projected our external financing needs at USD 25.9 bn for FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27. <\/p>\n

IMF now sees Egypt reeling in USD 26.4 bn in external financing during FY 2025-26<\/strong>, compared to USD 24.1 bn projected in its third review. External financing projections for the next fiscal year were revised down to USD 25.9 bn, down from USD 26.0 bn in the third review.<\/p>\n

Net FDI will be the biggest contributor among external financing sources<\/strong>, which the IMF expects to reach USD 15.6 bn during the current fiscal year, before inching up to USD 16.9 bn during 2026-27. Both projections have been revised upwards from the IMF\u2019s previous review. The fund estimates that net FDI inflows recorded USD 13.2 bn in FY 2024-25, up from USD 10.8 bn in the third review. Portfolio investments, meanwhile, are anticipated to record USD 7.3 bn in the current fiscal year before falling to USD 5.0 bn in FY 2026-27. <\/p>\n

We\u2019re targeting USD 3 bn in asset sales this fiscal year: <\/strong>The government expects to receive USD 3 bn in inflows from asset sales during the current fiscal year, up from USD 600 mn last fiscal year. For FY 2026-27, the figure is expected to hit USD 2.1 bn, which is higher than those presented at the third review. This ramp-up aims to account for the shortfalls in both FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, \u201cto maintain the overall divestment envelope the authorities agreed at program approval,\u201d the IMF noted.<\/p>\n

Our sources are a little more optimistic:<\/strong> A government source told<\/a> us earlier this week that the government aims to drum up USD 5-6 bn in fresh investments by offering stakes in six companies \u2014 including Banque du Caire, Safi, and Wataneya \u2014 on the EGX before 1Q 2026.<\/p>\n

\n

THE MACRO PICTURE-<\/p>\n

GDP growth outlook:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s real GDP is expected to grow by 4.1% during this fiscal year, before accelerating to 4.6% growth in 2026-27, the IMF noted. The fund seems slightly less optimistic than the Madbouly government, which sees the economy growing 4.5% in FY 2025-26<\/a>, before rising further to 5.0% in FY 2026-27. <\/p>\n

Inflation outlook:<\/strong> The IMF sees inflation in Egypt reaching 15.3% on average during FY 2025-26, before cooling down to 10.7% on average in the upcoming fiscal year.<\/p>\n

The targeted primary surplus for the current fiscal year has been revised down to 4% of GD<\/strong>P<\/strong>, which is 0.5% of GDP less than initially committed in the program. However, for FY 2026-27, the primary surplus is projected to increase to 5% of GDP, bringing it in line with prior program commitments.<\/p>\n

E<\/strong>xternal debt forecasts:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s external debt is projected to record 46.6% of GDP, reaching USD 180.6 bn during FY 2025-26, before falling to 43.3% of GDP, hitting USD 186.6 bn in FY 2026-27. Our external debt service is expected to register USD 46.6 bn during the current fiscal year, before dropping to USD 45 bn in the upcoming fiscal year.<\/p>\n

\n

OTHER TAKEAWAYS-<\/p>\n

Suez Canal receipts are expected to reach USD 6.3 bn in the current fiscal year<\/strong>, before recovering to USD 8.2 bn in FY 2026-27, bringing them back to roughly the same levels recorded during FY 2022-2023 before the disruptions in the Red Sea since December 2023, reducing foreign exchange inflows from the vital waterway by USD 6 bn in 2024. <\/p>\n

Tourism revenues<\/strong> are also expected to recover during the current fiscal year, reaching USD 17.1 bn, before jumping to USD 19.2 bn in the FY 2026-27.<\/p>\n

On the monetary policy front, the IMF reiterated that we <\/strong>still need to maintain a liberalized and fle<\/strong>xible exchange rate system.<\/strong> \u201cEgypt is exposed to fundamental shocks, such as commodity price and productivity shocks, which require the use of the exchange rate as a shock absorber,\u201d the IMF noted. \u201cThe limited variability in the exchange rate despite the numerous shocks that have impacted Egypt warrants further analysis, including on interbank market dynamics to ensure that the reform is sustained,\u201d the IMF wrote, adding that \u201cthe perceived stability of the exchange rate is a source of risk in the near term, particularly with<\/p>\n

respect to its impact on portfolio flows.\u201d<\/p>\n

WHAT\u2019S NEXT- The I<\/strong>MF is set to hold its combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt\u2019s USD 8 bn EFF ar<\/strong>rangement on 15 September<\/strong>, it noted in its report. Earlier this month, the IMF decided<\/a> to combine the fifth and sixth reviews, stating that \u201cmore time is needed\u201d to make progress on the state withdrawing itself from the economy and the broader reform agenda. The seventh review is scheduled for 15 March, 2026, and the eighth review is set for 15 September, 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Net FDI is projected to reach USD 15.6 bn during the current fiscal year, up from USD 13.2 in FY 2024-25<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":668563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,12188,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-668562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-extended-fund-facility","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"786d4667-139a-4b10-982f-e98deca20819","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/1115.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Key takeaways from the IMF\u2019s fourth review of Egypt\u2019s USD 8 bn loan program","related_issue":[668557],"teaser":"Net FDI is projected to reach USD 15.6 bn during the current fiscal year, up from USD 13.2 in FY 2024-25","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/7\/.9c708c14-fc9b-4034-9d0f-24fe8ee94707.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nKey takeaways from the IMF\u2019s fourth loan review - 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At home, we\u2019re celebrating a narrowing financing gap \u2014 and manifesting a long weekend next week. THE BIG STORY TODAY- Financing gap narrows by half in current fiscal year: The IMF sees Egypt facing a financing gap of USD 5.8 bn in FY 2025-26,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/148.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577170,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/13\/egypt-can-cover-usd-16-bn-financing-gap-says-maait\/","url_meta":{"origin":668562,"position":1},"title":"Egypt can cover USD 16 bn financing gap, says Maait","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"More funding, investments coming in \u201cdays, weeks, months\u201d -Maait: Egypt expects to see more FDI and more funding inflows, including from the Gulf and \u201cother sources,\u201d after reaching a staff-level agreement with the IMF for a USD 3 bn, 46-month loan, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg on Thursday (watch,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/195.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578704,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/11\/imf-breaks-down-the-details-on-our-usd-3-bn-loan\/","url_meta":{"origin":668562,"position":2},"title":"IMF breaks down the details on our USD 3 bn loan","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF releases breakdown, timing + conditions of our USD 3 bn facility: The IMFyesterday published a package of documents (pdf) on our USD 3 bn loan agreement, shedding light on the disbursal timeline as well as separate external financing it expects us to receive on the back of the program\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/162.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562169,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/10\/its-report-card-season\/","url_meta":{"origin":668562,"position":3},"title":"It\u2019s report card season","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF is expected to wrap its second and final review of its year-long USD 5.2bn standby loan program by the end of June, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg Asharq. A positive review would unlock the final USD 1.6 bn tranche; Egypt received an initial USD 2 bn in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/93.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593709,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/08\/imf-accused-of-reckless-lending-to-high-debt-countries-including-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":668562,"position":4},"title":"IMF accused of \u201creckless lending\u201d to high-debt countries, including Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF accused of \u201creckless lending\u201d to high-debt countries, including Egypt: The IMF has disbursed some USD 93 bn in financing to a number of governments that are classified as having \u201cvery high debt,\u201d including Egypt, without requiring a debt restructuring program, making the lending \u201creckless,\u201d UK-based Jubilee Debt Campaign said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2363.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":619153,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/28\/egypt-could-receive-another-usd-820-mn-tranche-in-june\/","url_meta":{"origin":668562,"position":5},"title":"Egypt could receive another USD 820 mn tranche in June","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 April 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The country has met 7 out of 15 structural reform targets set by the fund","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/4\/1881.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=668562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668562\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/668557"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/668563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=668562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=668562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=668562"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=668562"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=668562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}