{"id":668162,"date":"2025-07-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/10\/inflation-unexpectedly-falls-to-14-9-in-june\/"},"modified":"2025-07-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-unexpectedly-falls-to-14-9-in-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/10\/inflation-unexpectedly-falls-to-14-9-in-june\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation unexpectedly falls to 14.9% in June"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual headline urban inflation fell to 14.9% in June<\/strong>, from 16.8% in May<\/a>, ending an upward trend that extended over three consecutive months, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.1% compared to an increase of 1.9% in the previous month.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Driving the trend: <\/strong>The decrease is mainly attributed to an easing in food and beverages prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 which rose 6.9% y-o-y in June, compared to 11.0% in May. On a monthly basis, food and beverages inflation dipped by 1.2%.<\/p>\n

Fruit inflation saw a 64.9% y-o-y increase during the month<\/strong>, marking an acceleration from May\u2019s 61.8% y-o-y jump. Electricity, gas and fuel materials also accelerated 38.1% y-o-y in June, compared to a y-o-y increase of 33.7% a month earlier.<\/p>\n

Much weaker than anticipated: <\/strong>\u201cJune inflation came significantly lower than our estimate of 16.6% y-o-y and lower than Reuters' median poll estimates of 16.2% y-o-y,\u201d HC Securities\u2019 Heba Monir told EnterpriseAM, adding that Capmas data showed \u201ca noticeable decline in the food and beverages segment versus our estimate of a 2.1% m-o-m increase.\u201d Capital Economics\u2019s James Swanston agreed with Monir, saying that \u201cJune\u2019s outturn was much weaker than both we (16.0%) and the consensus (16.2%) had expected,\u201d according to a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

What about core inflation? <\/strong>Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 fell to 11.4% in June from 13.1% in May, according to data<\/a> from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation fell 0.2% in June, compared to rising 1.6% in May. <\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures eased amid regional de-escalation: <\/strong>\u201cThis decline is due to the absence of significant or sustained new inflationary pressures,\u201d banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal told us, adding \u201cwe maintain our view that inflation rate appears to be heading towards a downward trend, especially with concerns over increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, having diminished following the Iran-Israel ceasefire.\u201d<\/p>\n

A pick up is expected ahead? <\/strong>\u201cInflation declined on an annual and monthly basis, but we are still anticipating an increase in electricity and gas prices among other items,\u201d Ahly Pharos\u2019 Head of Research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. This will come in addition to the impact of expected cigarette price hike due to the recently-approved VAT amendments<\/a>, which will be reflected in July\u2019s inflation figures, Genena noted.<\/p>\n

Cooling inflation: <\/strong>What does it mean<\/strong> for the MPC's meeting today? <\/strong>The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting today to review interest rates. Five of the experts we spoke<\/a> to see the committee pausing its easing cycle today, while three others expect a cut between 100-175 bps. \u201cI still lean towards holding interest rates steady,\u201d Genena told us yesterday. The CBE has significant room to maneuver, if the MPC decides to cut rates this month, it will be by a maximum of 100 bps, Genena noted. \u201cHowever, should no rate cuts occur this month, [the MPC] is expected to cut rates by 200 bps in August,\" Genena added. Abdel Aal reiterated his prediction of a cut ranging between 100-175 bps. <\/p>\n

\u201cEven before June\u2019s downside surprise reading to inflation, we had pencilled in a 100 <\/strong>bps red<\/strong>uction in the CBE\u2019s interest rates for Thursday\u2019s meeting<\/strong> \u2014 of the 17 analysts polled, only seven (including ourselves) expect a cut, all of whom predict a 100 bps move,\u201d Swanston wrote, predicting that the CBE is unlikely to make aggressive cuts today, given that \u201cthe headline inflation rate remains above the target range of 7 \u00b12% and the backdrop of Trump\u2019s expiring tariff deadlines.\u201d However, if disinflation accelerates as they expect, \u201cchunkier moves are likely further down the line,\u201d Swanston noted.<\/p>\n

Outlooks for upcoming cuts ahead: <\/strong>Genena is forecasting a total of 400 bps in interest rate cuts during the remainder of the year, while Swanston foresees a \u201cfurther 500 bps of reductions this year,\u201d which he said \u201c is more dovish than other analysts expect.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The retreat is mainly attributed to an easing in food and beverages prices<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":668163,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-668162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0040931e-a260-4849-b4fb-ccac7de3294a","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/806.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation dips below expectations in June to hit 14.9%","related_issue":[668154],"teaser":"The retreat is mainly attributed to an easing in food and beverages prices","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/7\/.b21964ad-c2ec-4b6d-926e-fde9268cd3b9.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation unexpectedly falls to 14.9% in June - 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It\u2019s a calm day on the news front, and at home, we\u2019re celebrating a cooling inflation rate. THE BIG STORY TODAY- Annual headline urban inflation cooled further for the second consecutive month to hit 13.9% in July, down from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/833.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":668162,"position":2},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":673366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/12\/inflation-cools-for-fourth-straight-month-in-september-to-11-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":668162,"position":3},"title":"Inflation cools for fourth straight month in September to 11.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Analysts had been expecting a much greater fall in inflation","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/833.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542436,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/11\/inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":668162,"position":4},"title":"Inflation inches down in November, defying expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 December 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation fell to 12.3% in November","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556077,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/inflation-hits-20-month-high-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":668162,"position":5},"title":"Inflation hits 20-month high in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation continued its upward trend in September, hitting a 20-month high on the back of increasing food, healthcare and education costs, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. Headline urban inflation jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 5.7% in August. This is the highest annual inflation rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=668162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/668162\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/668154"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/668163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=668162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=668162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=668162"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=668162"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=668162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}