{"id":667688,"date":"2025-07-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/01\/usd-bns-of-capital-cross-the-atlantic-as-investor-confidence-in-the-us-wanes\/"},"modified":"2025-07-01T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T00:00:00","slug":"usd-bns-of-capital-cross-the-atlantic-as-investor-confidence-in-the-us-wanes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/01\/usd-bns-of-capital-cross-the-atlantic-as-investor-confidence-in-the-us-wanes\/","title":{"rendered":"USD bns of capital cross the Atlantic as investor confidence in the US wanes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investors are increasingly diverting funds to Europe, viewing it as a more stable market <\/strong>amid the \u201cabsolute uncertainty\u201d of US tariff policies<\/strong> and increased political intervention under President Donald Trump, Reuters<\/a> reported yesterday, citing interviews with over a dozen executives and fund managers. Investors are being pushed from the US by fears that Trump\u2019s tariff policies and tax cuts will harm corporate earnings, increase inflation, and widen the budget deficit. Meanwhile, Europe is pulling investors in with a new era of fiscal stimulus marked by increased government spending on defense and infrastructure \u2014 especially Germany \u2014 and aggressive interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB).<\/p>\n

By the numbers:<\/strong> So far this year, investors have poured over USD 100 bn into European equity funds \u2014 a threefold y-o-y increase \u2014 while US funds recorded outflows of USD 87 bn, according to LSEG data. This shift is echoed in Germany, Europe\u2019s largest economy, where foreign direct investment has more than doubled to EUR 46 bn over January-April 2025, reaching its highest level since 2022, according to Bundesbank data.<\/p>\n

Investors\u2019 rising appetite for European markets comes as a 9 July deadline <\/strong>approaches for a potential trade agreement<\/strong> between Washington and Brussels, with Trump threatening to impose 50% tariffs on all EU goods if no agreement is reached.<\/p>\n

Ending a decade of underperformance, European markets dramatically outpaced the US<\/strong> in 1H 2025<\/strong>, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index\u2019s returns hitting 16% \u2014 outperforming \u201cUS peers by the biggest margin on record in USD terms during the first half,\u201d Bloomberg<\/a> reports. The EUR gained 13% y-o-y against the USD in 1H and is forecasted to reach USD 1.20 by year-end, up from USD 1.04 in 2024.<\/p>\n

Investors are now overweight European equities (net 34%) and underweight US stocks<\/strong> (net 36%)<\/strong>, a Bank of America survey shows. Meanwhile, European equity funds have seen a USD 46 bn inflow so far this year, compared to a USD 66 bn outflow last year. For fixed income, European bond funds have attracted over USD 42 bn, far outpacing the USD 5.6 bn flowing into US funds.<\/p>\n

Despite the rally, European stocks remain attractively valued<\/strong>, trading at a 35% markdown to their US peers. They also offer higher dividends and comparable buyback yields, which Goldman Sachs\u2019 Peter Oppenheimer expects to gain momentum. \u201cWhile [earnings] growth in Europe may not be as strong as in the US, the valuation gap remains very big,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Analysts are split on Europe\u2019s long-term outlook<\/strong>, with some cautioning that Europe\u2019s prospectus window is temporary, with KfW's Stefan Wintels warning, \u201cThis sentiment can quickly turn again.\u201d A potential US rebound hinges on tech strength and Fed rate cuts, though structural changes in Europe\u2019s fiscal policy provide a compelling long-term growth story.<\/p>\n

Others see a more permanent shift<\/strong>, with UBS forecasting a EUR 1.2 tn (USD 1.4 tn) of capital rotation to European equities from the US in the next five years.<\/p>\n

Not all sunshine and rainbows in the Eurozone: <\/strong>Despite rate cuts by the ECB, lending growth to Eurozone businesses stalled at 2.5% in May from 2.6% in April, as trade uncertainty and weak economic growth weighed on investment, Reuters<\/a> reports, citing ECB data. The monthly flow of new business loans turned negative for the first time in over a year. While household lending growth edged up slightly to 2.0%, the M3 money supply indicator held steady at 3.9%, signaling a continued but anemic economic activity dominated by uncertainty.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific markets are looking like a mixed bag in early trading today.<\/strong> Investors are once again fretting over US President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff policies as a 90-day pause on higher tariffs \u2014 which came into effect in April to grant time for negotiations \u2014 is scheduled to expire next week, according to CNBC<\/a>. Japan\u2019s Nikkei and the Hang Seng Index are both in the red, while South Korea\u2019s Kospi and China\u2019s Shanghai index are each trading up so far. Meanwhile on Wall Street, futures suggest that markets will open just barely in the green.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

32,858<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: +10.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.53<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.65<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,164<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,958<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,706<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +10.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,205<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +5.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,761<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +7.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,303<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 67.61<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.46<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3,316<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 107,282<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +14.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

878.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +13.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

145.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.73<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.5% (YTD: -3.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 1.1% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 5.9 bn (21.6% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 10.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Beltone Holding (+2.2%), Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+1.5%), and Egypt Kuwait Holding -USD (+1.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>ADIB (-4.0%), Fawry (-3.4%), and EFG Holding (-3.0%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Outflows from US equity funds have doubled YTD, while inflows in Europe hit USD 100 bn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":667689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[82,102,984,104,72,297,119,122,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-667688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-bonds","tag-capital-markets","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-europe","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d349ccfd-cee1-4dd7-97df-80239711aa71","order":"14","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/1720.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"USD 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