{"id":667090,"date":"2025-06-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/19\/madbouly-warns-of-tough-economic-decisions-if-regional-escalations-continue\/"},"modified":"2025-06-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T00:00:00","slug":"madbouly-warns-of-tough-economic-decisions-if-regional-escalations-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/19\/madbouly-warns-of-tough-economic-decisions-if-regional-escalations-continue\/","title":{"rendered":"Madbouly warns of tough economic decisions if regional escalations continue"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, folks.<\/strong> We\u2019re wrapping up a very busy week with another very busy issue. Leading the issue today is the prospect of amendments to the budget in light of continuing regional escalations, a big-ticket Chinese solar manufacturing project, updates to the Old Rent Law, and more.<\/p>\n

PSA-<\/p>\n

WEATHER- The sun is out in force in Cairo today<\/strong>, with a high of 34\u00b0C, a low of 23\u00b0C, and clear blue skies, according to our favorite weather app.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also not a cloud to be seen in Alexandria<\/strong>, with a high of 30\u00b0C and a low of 23\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

And over the weekend<\/strong>, expect to see temperatures inch up a degree in the capital and in Alexandria.<\/p>\n

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover <\/strong>Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/strong> and the <\/strong>UAE<\/a><\/strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n

** Were you forwarded this email?<\/strong> Tap or click here<\/a> to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time \u2014 without charge.<\/p>\n

\n

WATCH THIS SPACE- <\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- The government could roll out tougher austerity measures if the regional war takes a <\/strong>turn for the worse<\/strong>, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during his weekly presser yesterday (w<\/a>atch, runtime: 58:06<\/a>). \u201cWe are able to handle the current conditions, but if new developments arise, additional steps will be announced,\u201d Madbouly said.<\/p>\n

The Supreme Committee for Market Regulation will convene today<\/strong> to monitor price stability and reassure the market, Prime Minister said, stressing the government\u2019s commitment to maintaining price stability and warning against \u201ccreating a crisis out of nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n

All domestic needs of natural gas will be secured by the end of this month<\/strong>, Madbouly said, adding that local production is expected to see a gradual uptick starting in August.<\/p>\n

^^ We have more in this morning\u2019s Budget Watch, below. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

<\/a> #2- Israel may <\/strong>restart natural gas supplies to Egypt as early as today<\/strong>, following a now six-day halt to flows, Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said yesterday, Bloomberg<\/a> reported. Flows will return to Egypt and Jordan only when the country\u2019s military forces say it's safe, Cohen said in separate comments reported by Reuters<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But even if Isr<\/strong>ael turns back on the tap, flows will remain limited at first <\/strong>as Israel will continue to prioritize domestic needs first, the minister said. Gas supplies could also be halted again if Israeli demand pushes it to use coal and mazut for power generation, he added.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Over the weekend, Tel Aviv shuttered the Leviathan and the Karish fields<\/a> in the wake of military strikes on Iranian targets, taking 800 mcf\/d away from the national gas grid. Reduced gas flows from Israel not only mean an increased reliance on significantly more expensive LNG or Mazut<\/a> imports, but also put a significant strain on the country\u2019s efforts to keep the lights on ahead of high-demand summer months.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

#3- The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is staring <\/strong>into<\/strong> USD 98 <\/strong>mn budgetary black h<\/strong>ole in Egypt amidst a rising refugee crisis<\/strong>, according to its May 2025 report (pdf)<\/a>. The UNHCR has so far secured just 29% of its USD 137.7 mn annual financial requirements to support the 982k refugees registered with the UNHCR in Egypt \u2014 over 30k were registered in May alone. <\/p>\n

The breakdown: <\/strong>Of the 982k refugees in Egypt, 73% come from Sudan, 14% from Syria, 5% from South Sudan, and 4% from Eritrea. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

<\/a> #4- The central bank <\/strong>has told banks to<\/strong> audit exporters<\/strong> ahead of the <\/strong>upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 known commonly by its acronym CBAM \u2014 according to a statement (pdf)<\/a> from the bank. To prepare for the carbon tariff on imports into the EU set to launch at the start of 2026 and the UK\u2019s own CBAM a year after, banks are instructed to examine their credit portfolio for companies that will be affected. Data should be collected on the identified companies for the sake of improving risk management ahead of the shake up to carbon-heavy exporting industries.<\/p>\n

The CBE is also requiring banks to submit biannual data reports on these companies <\/strong>starting from 2H 2026.<\/strong> The reports \u2014 due every March and September \u2014 must be submitted to the CBE\u2019s sustainability department. The CBE said lenders must also collect detailed data on these companies\u2019 export activities to better manage risks to international carbon pricing regulations.<\/p>\n

\n
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\n
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Get Enterprise<\/b> daily <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

Subscribe here<\/a> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

EGP WATCH- <\/p>\n

<\/a> Th<\/strong>e EGP weakene<\/strong>d by around EGP 0.40 by the end of trading yesterday<\/strong>, with the USD ending the day being sold for around EGP 50.48-50 and selling for EGP 50.60-50.61 across state and private banks.<\/p>\n

An uptick in foreign outflows from local debt was driven by fears of regional escalation<\/strong>, as Trump teased the US\u2019 possible intervention in the war, a source in the banking sector told EnterpriseAM. Interbank USD transactions jumped to around USD 500 mn yesterday, our source added.<\/p>\n

However, an uptick in yields this week has pushed some foreign investors to buy up USD <\/strong>300 mn of local debt<\/strong>, in what is an indication of the attractiveness of the Egyptian market as one of the key destinations for debt instrument investors, we were told.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

On day six of the war between Israel and Iran, concern is rising that the US is preparing <\/strong>to join the war.<\/strong> Adding to the speculation, US President Donald Trump said that he had not made a final decision on whether he will strike the country, telling reporters, \u201cI may do it, I may not.\u201d Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first appearance since Friday to respond to an increasingly hawkish Trump, warning the US president that their involvement in the conflict would \u201cundoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.\u201d (Financial Times<\/a> | Associated Press<\/a> | New York Times<\/a>)<\/p>\n

While over in the business press, all eyes were on the US Federal Reserve<\/strong>, which decided to hold interest rates steady for the fourth meeting running despite increasing pressure from the Trump administration to change course. Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on the reserve\u2019s position that they will wait to assess the full impact of the tariffs on US imports before \u201cconsidering any adjustments to our policy stance.\u201d Despite the decision to hold, the Fed still sees two interest rates to come before the end of year. We have more on the Fed\u2019s decision in this morning\u2019s Planet Finance section, below.<\/strong> (Bloomberg<\/a> | Financial Times<\/a> | Wall Street Journal<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning, folks. We\u2019re wrapping up a very busy week with another very busy issue. Leading the issue today is the prospect of amendments to the budget in light of continuing regional escalations, a big-ticket Chinese solar manufacturing project, updates to the Old Rent Law, and more. PSA- WEATHER- The sun is out in force […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":667091,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[72,6984,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-667090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"368392c8-ba4c-4408-8f31-57bb3da8a613","order":"2","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/1086.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Madbouly warns of tough economic decisions if regional escalations continue","related_issue":[667088],"teaser":"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/6\/.a709b84c-7a7a-4e96-a332-d00c720c42d1.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nMadbouly warns of tough economic decisions if regional escalations continue - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/19\/madbouly-warns-of-tough-economic-decisions-if-regional-escalations-continue\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Madbouly warns of tough economic decisions if regional escalations continue\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good morning, folks. 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The newscycle remains dominated by the ongoing escalations between Israel and Iran and their impact on local, regional, and global markets. THE BIG STORY TODAY- The EGP and EGX see sharp declines on the back of regional escalations: After\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/119.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":657896,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/29\/regional-escalations-has-cost-egypt-some-usd-7-bn-in-suez-canal-revenues\/","url_meta":{"origin":667090,"position":1},"title":"Regional escalations has cost Egypt some USD 7 bn in Suez Canal revenues","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 December 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, all, and welcome to the very last Sunday of the year. We are taking these last few days of the year to reflect back on the year that has passed \u2014 and what a year it has been. We have recaps of what went down on the macro\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/2402.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":644651,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/30\/ongoing-geopolitical-tensions-continue-to-hurt-suez-canal-revenues\/","url_meta":{"origin":667090,"position":2},"title":"Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to hurt Suez Canal revenues","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 September 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, all. We have a brisk issue for you this morning as the news flow slows down after a particularly busy weekend. BUT BEFORE WE DIVE IN- We have a long weekend ahead: Public and private sector workers will have Sunday, 6 October off in observance of Armed Forces\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/2222.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":667242,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/22\/egp-continues-to-weaken-against-the-greenback\/","url_meta":{"origin":667090,"position":3},"title":"EGP continues to weaken against the greenback","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 June 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Good afternoon, all and welcome to the start of another workweek. The newscycle remains dominated by the ongoing escalations between Israel and Iran and the latest US strikes on Iran and their local and regional impact.THE BIG STORY TODAY- The EGP continued to weaken against the greenback today, with the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/1239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591965,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-monday-23-december-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":667090,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on Monday, 23 December 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The long-awaited cabinet shuffle materialized yesterday, bringing six new faces to the cabinet table and a handful of surprises, including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly being tapped to drum up investment in all of its flavors. We have chapter and verse in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below. We also have a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":640382,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/08\/25\/israel-strikes-lebanon-as-hezbollah-looks-to-retaliate-against-assassination-of-commander\/","url_meta":{"origin":667090,"position":5},"title":"Israel strikes Lebanon as Hezbollah looks to retaliate against assassination of commander","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Good afternoon, friends. We are kicking off the week with all eyes on the region following a major fire exchange between Israel and Hezbollah. THE BIG STORY TODAY- Israel and Hezbollah exchange heavy fire in \u201cthe biggest exchange of fire between them since they fought a 34-day war in 2006.\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/8\/2125.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=667090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667090\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/667088"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/667091"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=667090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=667090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=667090"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=667090"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=667090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}