{"id":667029,"date":"2025-06-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/18\/capital-economics-fitch-provide-insights-over-the-impact-of-the-israel-iran-escalation-on-the-mena-region\/"},"modified":"2025-06-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T00:00:00","slug":"capital-economics-fitch-provide-insights-over-the-impact-of-the-israel-iran-escalation-on-the-mena-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/18\/capital-economics-fitch-provide-insights-over-the-impact-of-the-israel-iran-escalation-on-the-mena-region\/","title":{"rendered":"Capital Economics, Fitch provide insights over the impact of the Israel-Iran escalation on the MENA region"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Israel-Iran escalations have created an air of uncertainty over the MENA region\u2019s <\/strong><strong>ec<\/strong><strong>onomic prospects for the year.<\/strong> The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran will have considerable implications for the MENA region and for the global economy at large \u2014 the only question being just how significant the effects will be. Analysts and researchers have said that it is too early to tell just how far the conflict will go, instead giving different scenarios depending on both the intensity and the duration of the war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The oil market could be particularly affected by the conflict,<\/strong> with Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI saying in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM that \u201call options are on the table\u201d both for the conflict and for its impact on oil prices in the near term. BMI laid out a number of possibilities for oil prices by 3Q:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Iran conducts limited attacks and a new nuclear deal is reached<\/strong>, which would lead to crude oil being priced at USD 60-65 per barrel;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Iran's missile programs are weakened and US does not pursue a new nuclear deal<\/strong>, which would lead to crude oil barrels being priced at USD 60-70 per barrel;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Israel and Iran engage in retaliationary strikes before eventual de-escalation<\/strong>, keeping prices elevated at USD 70 per barrel before stabilizing at between USD 60-80;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Retaliatory exchanges between Israel and Iran lead to military confrontation with <\/strong><strong>the US<\/strong>, leading to prices of USD 75-100;<\/li>\n<li><strong>The situation develops into a broader conflict that pits the US directly against Iran<\/strong>, bringing prices up to around USD 100-150 should a closure of the Strait of Hormuz take place.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cSo long as oil exports of producers in the region remain unaffected, the global oil <\/strong><strong>market is set to be well supplied<\/strong> over the next few months on the back of OPEC+\u2019s well-documented pivot towards a faster unwinding of voluntary output cuts,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.capitaleconomics.com\/publications\/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update\/israel-iran-conflict-macro-geopolitical-and\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">r<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.capitaleconomics.com\/publications\/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update\/israel-iran-conflict-macro-geopolitical-and\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">esearch note<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>As things stand, Gulf countries stand to benefit economically \u2014 at least for the time <\/strong><strong>being. <\/strong>\u201cIf anything, the Gulf economies benefit for the time being from higher production and oil prices,\u201d Swanston said. This notion was seconded by Fitch\u2019s Head of MENA Country Risk Ramona Moubarak, who said in the webinar that as long as the conflict remains confined to Iran and Israel, GCC economies will only be affected by the air of uncertainty. But in parallel to that, they will benefit from the higher oil prices. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But the overall impact on the GCC remains difficult to gauge at the moment <\/strong>as \u201crisk concerns may delay investment decisions in the region and increase ins. and other costs,\u201d GCC Economist and Khalij Economics Director Justin Alexander <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/e75af5da-4525-410f-a3f0-c8906234b554\/how-the-israel-iran-escalation-could-impact-the-uae%25e2%2580%2599s-economic-prospects\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">told<\/a> EnterpriseAM previously.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>However, Egypt and other non-oil exporting nations like Jordan will face a \u201cgreater <\/strong><strong>negative impact<\/strong>,\u201d Swanston said. Coming to a similar conclusion, Moubarak pointed to Egypt\u2019s country\u2019s proximity to Israel, resultant swings in investor sentiment, the risk of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e86cdda0-25cc-4483-b3cf-23be9fb53522\/gov%25e2%2580%2599t-form-crisis-committee-to-assess-israel-iran-war-impact\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">capital outflows<\/a>, higher oil prices raising the current account deficit, and the cutting of Israeli gas flows behind her assessment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But the real concern for many is if the Iranians decide to close the Strait of Hormuz,<\/strong> which could lead to the cutting off about 30% of the world\u2019s daily oil supply and 20% of global LNG trade, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/633.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">factsheet (pdf)<\/a> by the International Energy Agency. Closing the strait and cutting off key energy exporters Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE from the global market has the potential to completely disrupt global energy supply chains and violently ramp up energy costs, making Egypt\u2019s increased reliance on imported energy even more costly and increasing the risk of severe energy disruptions to the national grid.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cThe risk of a \u2018closure\u2019 of the Strait of Hormuz is more nuanced than some might <\/strong><strong>sug<\/strong><strong>gest, <\/strong>not least because Iran relies on the strait to export its energy flows,\u201d Swanston argued. \u201cIt seems unlikely to us that Iran would attempt to mine the Strait to cause long-term disruption to the shipping channel, not least because it would not just disrupt the West but<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">also Iran\u2019s allies including China,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The research units gave different scenarios depending on both the intensity and the duration of the conflict<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":667030,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[1433,104,72,3637,6984],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-667029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capital-economics","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-solutions","tag-middle-east-politics","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9357d7b4-de65-44ed-96eb-fd19f62c319d","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/971.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Capital 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will see GDP growth return to pre-covid levels in 2021, buoyed by expectations of a strong rebound in the oil and gas and tourism industries this year, Fitch Solutions analysts said at a webinaryesterday. \u201cThe Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) monetary easing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/198.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576060,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/09\/egyptian-economy-to-grow-4-on-average-each-year-until-2024-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":667029,"position":1},"title":"Egyptian economy to grow 4% on average each year until 2024 -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is on track to grow at an average 4% clip over each of the coming four years, which would 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The sector is projected to grow 9% on average between 2020 and 2024 after a short-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597778,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/05\/egypts-economy-will-continue-to-outperform-its-regional-peers-fitch-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":667029,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy \u201cwill continue to outperform\u201d its regional peers, Fitch says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy \u201cwill continue to outperform\u201d its regional peers in FY2019-20, Fitch said in its Africa Monitor report for April. 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