{"id":666866,"date":"2025-06-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/16\/imf-considers-easing-fifth-review-conditions-in-light-of-israel-iran-war\/"},"modified":"2025-06-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T00:00:00","slug":"imf-considers-easing-fifth-review-conditions-in-light-of-israel-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/16\/imf-considers-easing-fifth-review-conditions-in-light-of-israel-iran-war\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF considers easing fifth review conditions in light of Israel-Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"

To keep the International Monetary Fund\u2019s fifth loan disbursed on schedule <\/strong>in early July, the fund is open to relaxing some of its conditions<\/strong>, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM. With the international lender\u2019s conditions for Egypt to pass its fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement agreed way before the war between Israel and Iran, they are considering easing certain requirements in light of a more unpredictable and challenging economic climate for us to unlock the USD 1.3 bn tranche.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>An IMF mission wrapped up a two-week visit to Egypt<\/a> last month by stating that the country had made \u201cgood progress on the assessment of economic performance and implementation of policy commitments.\u201d The two-sides have since continued their discussions regarding policies and reforms virtually, paving the way for the completion of the fifth review later down the line.<\/p>\n

Our source told us that the rising cost of fuel imports could affect petroleum subsidies in <\/strong>both the current and upcoming fiscal budgets. <\/strong>They noted that it is still too early to predict the implications of the Israel-Iran escalations on the Middle East, but oil prices will undoubtedly have repercussions on the global economy as a whole. We may see oil prices surge to around USD 100 per barrel \u2014 which could drive petroleum subsidy allocations beyond the EGP 154 bn allocated in the government budget, possibly exceeding EGP 200 bn by the end of the fiscal year \u2014 especially with the added pressure of currency fluctuations, the source added. <\/p>\n

The government has two options on the table to address rising energy prices<\/strong>, by either increasing petroleum product prices to help close the widening price parity gap between market prices and subsidized prices for consumers, or it will have to extend the timeline for phasing out subsidies \u2014 a scenario the IMF might oppose, the source said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere should be room to be flexible \u201cas long as the program's fundamentals are adhered <\/strong>to<\/strong>,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 head of research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. \u201cCurrent events may support a potential Egyptian government negotiation with the International Monetary Fund to establish a more gradual schedule for raising gasoline, dollar, gas, and electricity prices,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

But previous falls in oil prices could help cushion the blow<\/strong>, with Brent crude still just about in the red both YTD and over the past 12-month period, the senior government source told us. This has bolstered expectations that any price hikes by the end of 2025 will remain limited.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s timeline for its privatization<\/strong> program <\/strong>could also fall victim to regional <\/strong>escalations. <\/strong>Our source told us that they expect the Finance Ministry's plan to list 11 companies under the government\u2019s privatization program<\/a> to 2Q 2025 if regional escalations continue on the back of the effect it will have on investor sentiment \u2014 particularly from outside the country.<\/p>\n

The crisis<\/strong> could also push up interest rates<\/strong> \u2014 and consequently public debt servicing costs, the government official added. If interest rates rise and foreign investors partially exit the domestic debt market, the state budget would come under further strain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The relaxed conditions should enable the loan to be disbursed on schedule<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":666867,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,587],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-666866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-state-privatization-program","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5d9d7778-5871-485e-a12f-e5fbb02eac8d","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/737.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF considers easing fifth review conditions for Egypt in light of Israel-Iran war","related_issue":[666856],"teaser":"The relaxed conditions should enable the loan to be disbursed on schedule","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/6\/.ad0c145b-56d7-4596-9cb4-9342d468cc69.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIMF considers easing fifth review conditions in light of Israel-Iran war - 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An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit in November to conduct a fourth review of the economic reform agenda ahead\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":667414,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/25\/govt-working-to-wrap-up-fifth-review-with-imf-before-the-end-of-the-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":666866,"position":1},"title":"Gov\u2019t working to wrap up fifth review with IMF before the end of the month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The macroeconomic setting we have found ourselves in should strengthen our hand in negotiations, a government official told EnterpriseAM","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/1247.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":605177,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/24\/egypt-is-not-receiving-fifth-imf-tranche-this-month-but-reforms-arent-delayed\/","url_meta":{"origin":666866,"position":2},"title":"Egypt is not receiving fifth IMF tranche this month, but reforms aren\u2019t delayed","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 December 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- Egypt won\u2019t be receiving the fifth tranche of its IMF facility this month \u2014 but reforms aren\u2019t being delayed, either: The Madbouly government is not in talks with the IMF to delay any part of its reform agenda, a senior government official tells Enterprise, denying a report in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed 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