{"id":666787,"date":"2025-06-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/15\/what-could-the-escalations-between-israel-and-iran-mean-for-us\/"},"modified":"2025-06-15T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-15T00:00:00","slug":"what-could-the-escalations-between-israel-and-iran-mean-for-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/15\/what-could-the-escalations-between-israel-and-iran-mean-for-us\/","title":{"rendered":"What could the escalations between Israel and Iran mean for us?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As fears of<\/strong> a broader regional war mount following Israel and Iran trading <\/strong>air<\/strong>strikes, we take a look at what it all could mean for Egypt.<\/strong> Could disruptions to energy flows, shipping routes, and tourism inflows put pressure on our external position and macro stability, and could we see foreign investors spook? We take a deep dive into the potential economic consequences for Egypt if the hostilities persist or escalate.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The most dangerous confron<\/strong>tation between Israel and Iran in years:<\/strong> After months of heightened tensions between the two, a war of words quickly escalated into an escalating conflict after Israel struck military and nuclear sites on Friday morning, along with targeted assassinations of senior military figures and nuclear scientists. The two have since exchanged missiles and airstrikes over the weekend and show little signs of looking for an offramp, with Iran vowing revenge and Israel threatening even more devastating strikes to come and hitting at regime change.<\/p>\n

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR EGYPT- <\/p>\n

Exchange rate, inflation, and monetary policy under pressure:<\/strong> HC Securities\u2019 Nemat Choucri told EnterpriseAM that escalations could lead to \u201csupply chain disruptions, which could negatively impact inflation and potentially disrupt the pace of Egypt\u2019s easing cycle.\u201d She added that \u201coil prices have increased, and Egypt\u2019s Oil Ministry announced that it will need to cut its natural gas supply to some industrial activities.\u201d<\/p>\n

What does the rise in oil prices mean for us? <\/strong>Banking expert Hany Abou El Fotouh warned that \u201cwith rising oil prices, the import bill is likely to increase, which could put pressure on the balance of payments in the short term.\u201d He also noted that while the EGP has held steady for now, \u201ccontinued tensions could prompt some foreign investors to hedge, which would increase local demand for USD.\u201d<\/p>\n

We\u2019re trying to secure a strategic energy reserve:<\/strong> Egypt signed a natural gas import agreement over the weekend to build a six-month strategic reserve of petroleum products amid rising geopolitical risks. We have the full story in the news well below.<\/p>\n

BY THE NUMBERS<\/strong>- <\/strong>Brent crude jumped 7.0% on Friday to USD 74.23 a barrel, marking the largest intraday moves since 2022, Reuters<\/a> reports. But despite the sudden rise, prices remain in the red y-o-y and well below their 2022 peaks reached a few years back after Russia launched its war on Ukraine. <\/p>\n

But oil prices could rise further, with Israel now targeting Iranian energy sites: <\/strong>Israel expanded its focus to include Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure yesterday, with a strike on an Iranian natural gas processing facility in the South Pars gas field \u2014 the world\u2019s largest. Although the field\u2019s output is primarily for the domestic market, Israel\u2019s turn towards energy targets could add even more volatility to the international energy market.<\/p>\n

Basic commodity reserves should help the local market stocked and prices in check: <\/strong>The state\u2019s reserve of basic commodities exceeds six months, which should keep products on shelves and at reasonable prices, the Supply Ministry said in a statement<\/a>. The ministry also said it will be extra vigilant to address any price gouging and to ensure the continued supply of products.<\/p>\n

Capital markets could see renewed outflows:<\/strong> \u201cWe may see some panic selling in treasuries and equities by foreign investors as an initial reaction due to the region\u2019s increased geopolitical risk,\u201d Choucri said. Economist Hany Genena similarly told EnterpriseAM that a \u201cpartial exit is likely, which is normal due to fears of FX instability.\u201d However, he dismissed the possibility of a full-blown exit similar to the 2022 hot money crisis, unless key inflows are severely disrupted. \u201cA complete exit is unlikely unless investors start to fear a full halt in tourism revenues, remittances, or other inflows \u2014 which seems highly improbable given that both tourism and capital flows held up during far more turbulent periods over the past two years,\u201d Genena told us.<\/p>\n

Hot money jitters are resurfacing: <\/strong>The current situation has reignited fears of foreign portfolio outflows from Egypt\u2019s local debt market, a government source added. Foreign investors had returned to EGP-denominated local debt last month following a sharp exit in April, supported by the central bank\u2019s easing cycle. The Finance Ministry\u2019s pivot toward longer debt maturities is expected to help mitigate exposure to hot money volatility.<\/p>\n

A rethink of subsidy reform could be in the cards:<\/strong> One potential outcome of the regional escalations could be a shift in the government\u2019s fiscal strategy. Genena said the situation \u201ccould prompt Egypt to submit a request to the IMF to reconsider the current timetable for phasing out fuel and electricity subsidies.\u201d This sentiment was echoed by Abou El Fotouh, who warned that further increases in oil prices \u201ccould require a reassessment of some subsidy items or the pricing of petroleum products.\u201d<\/p>\n

No immediate impact on the Suez Canal but risks remain:<\/strong> While the Suez Canal has not seen disruptions so far, Abou El Fotouh cautioned that \u201cdisruptions in regional maritime security or significant rises in ins. costs could temporarily prompt shipping lines to reconsider their routes.\u201d This would derail efforts to bring back global shipping lines to the waterway. Transit receipts from the Suez Canal dropped 62.3% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn in 1H FY 2024-2025<\/a> on the back of Red Sea disruptions that pushed ships to reroute away from the canal.<\/p>\n

Egypt has some policy space \u2014 for now:<\/strong> Despite the risks, Genena suggested that Egypt\u2019s macro position remains stable enough to weather short-term turbulence. \u201cThe credit default swap (CDS) spread remains very low at around 5.3%, which gives Egypt room to continue its planned issuances of bonds and sukuk to refinance external debt<\/a> obligations in 2H 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sukuk program still on track:<\/strong> While it's still too early to assess how regional escalations will affect Egypt\u2019s upcoming sukuk issuance, a government official told us that the program is moving forward as planned. A pipeline of projects and investments is currently being assembled under a broader local sukuk framework.<\/p>\n

\n

NUCLEAR SAFETY CONCERNS + EGYPT\u2019S DIPLOMATIC RESPONSE-<\/p>\n

Radiation risks? Not for Egypt, says nuclear watchdog:<\/strong> The Egyptian Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority (ENRRA) said<\/a> that radiation levels remain \u201cunder control\u201d at Iran\u2019s Natanz nuclear facility \u2014 a target site of Israeli airstrikes. \u201cThere are no indicators of any radiation leaks so far,\u201d the authority said, citing coordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency and local authorities. ENRRA added that its early warning and monitoring network continues to track background radiation data to ensure public safety.<\/p>\n

Cairo calls for de-escalation:<\/strong> The Foreign Ministry issued a statement<\/a> on Friday morning strongly condemning Israel\u2019s airstrikes on Iranian territory, calling the attack \u201ca dangerous escalation that represents a blatant violation of International Law, and a direct threat to regional and international peace and security.\u201d Egypt reiterated its long-standing position that \u201cmilitary solutions are no way to address the region\u2019s crises\u201d and called instead for \u201crespecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states\u201d as a basis for peace.<\/p>\n

Abdelatty warns against chaos in a call with Iran\u2019s FM:<\/strong> Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty spoke<\/a> with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Friday to discuss the \u201cdangerous implications\u201d of the Israeli attack. Abdelatty reiterated Egypt\u2019s \u201crejection and condemnation of violations of state sovereignty\u201d and warned of the risks of \u201cdragging the region into full-blown chaos.\u201d<\/p>\n

More calls with regio<\/strong>nal leaders: <\/strong>Abdelatty also spoke with his Qatari, Saudi, and Jordanian foreign ministers, with talks centring around the \u201cgrave consequences\u201d of the Israeli escalations and their repercussions on broader regional stability. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi also spoke<\/a> with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday to jointly emphasise the need for deescalation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts see potential pressure on exchange rate, inflation, and monetary policy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":666788,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,716,89,6984,91],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-666787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-oil-and-gas","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7690ed7c-5751-44cd-beef-7830af20ec40","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/702.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"What could the escalations between Israel and Iran mean for Egypt?","related_issue":[666782],"teaser":"Analysts see potential pressure on exchange rate, inflation, and monetary policy","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/6\/.49c4b8cb-8bf8-4f0f-a590-1b42f30667b4.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nWhat could the escalations between Israel and Iran mean for us? 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On Tuesday, Iran launched over 200 missiles at Israel in response to Tel Aviv\u2019s assassination of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas\u2019 political leader Ismail Haniyeh.(Tap or click\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS"","block_context":{"text":"LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/250.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":611015,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/30\/gaza-ceasefire-set-to-expire-this-morning-with-hamas-israel-no-closer-to-an-agreement\/","url_meta":{"origin":666787,"position":2},"title":"Gaza ceasefire set to expire this morning, with Hamas, Israel no closer to an agreement","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 November 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The truce in Gaza will expire in one hour: There remains little sign of an agreement between Hamas and Israel to extend the temporary ceasefire into a second week, despite Egyptian, Qatari and US negotiators pushing hard for a longer truce. The two sides are reportedly unable to agree on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WAR WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"WAR WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/war-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/11\/1759.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":637128,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/08\/saudi-trying-to-drag-israel-into-war-with-iran-former-us-ambassador-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":666787,"position":3},"title":"Saudi trying to drag Israel into war with Iran, former US ambassador says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"With little of interest from domestic opinion writers this morning, we offer two pieces from the Israeli press on regional issues of interest to many of our readers:Former US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro believes Saad Hariri\u2019s sudden resignation as prime minister of Lebanon is all about Iran, he writes\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "On Deadline: From Israel"","block_context":{"text":"On Deadline: From Israel","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/on-deadline-from-israel\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":667029,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/18\/capital-economics-fitch-provide-insights-over-the-impact-of-the-israel-iran-escalation-on-the-mena-region\/","url_meta":{"origin":666787,"position":4},"title":"Capital Economics, Fitch provide insights over the impact of the Israel-Iran escalation on the MENA region","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 June 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The research units gave different scenarios depending on both the intensity and the duration of the conflict","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/971.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558708,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/23\/lebanon-could-be-getting-a-contentious-fuel-booster-from-iran\/","url_meta":{"origin":666787,"position":5},"title":"Lebanon could be getting a contentious fuel booster from Iran","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Hezbollah appears to be using Lebanon\u2019s worsening fuel shortage to up Iran\u2019s influence on the crisis-hit country: Leader of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah, said a tanker would set off \"soon\u201d from Iran to bring desperately needed fuel supplies to Lebanon, insisting that the group was not trying to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "AROUND THE WORLD"","block_context":{"text":"AROUND THE WORLD","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/around-the-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/666787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=666787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/666787\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/666782"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/666788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=666787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=666787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=666787"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=666787"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=666787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}