{"id":666689,"date":"2025-06-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/12\/world-bank-keeps-growth-forecasts-steady-despite-tariff-tension-turmoil\/"},"modified":"2025-06-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T00:00:00","slug":"world-bank-keeps-growth-forecasts-steady-despite-tariff-tension-turmoil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/12\/world-bank-keeps-growth-forecasts-steady-despite-tariff-tension-turmoil\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank keeps growth forecasts steady despite tariff tension turmoil"},"content":{"rendered":"

The World B<\/strong>ank sees th<\/strong>e Egyptian economy growing at a 3.8% y-o-y clip for the current <\/strong>fiscal year<\/strong>, keeping its outlook unchanged from its previous forecast in April<\/a>, the international lender said in its latest biannual Global Economic Prospects report (pdf)<\/a>. The bank also kept its growth forecast for the next fiscal year starting next month penciled in at 4.2% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

The decision to keep<\/strong> forecasts<\/strong> stable<\/strong> gives us an insight into the impact of Trump\u2019s refueling <\/strong>of the trade war with his April 2 \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement.<\/strong> Egypt appears to have fared tariff uncertainty much better than some had feared and much better than some of our regional peers \u2014 some of which have also struggled with falling oil prices. Growth forecasts for the current year are 0.3 percentage points above the bank\u2019s pre-trade war January forecast<\/a>, while its forecast for the coming fiscal year has remained steady.<\/p>\n

We also got the World Bank\u2019s first gro<\/strong>wth forecast for FY 2026-2027<\/strong>, which sees the economy accelerating again at a 4.6% y-o-y clip.<\/p>\n

The World <\/strong>Bank\u2019s forecasts are more pessimisic than the Madbouly government\u2019s <\/strong>predictions<\/strong>, which see<\/a>GDP growth coming<\/a>in<\/a>at a 4.0% y-o-y clip<\/a> in FY 2024-2025, before rising to 4.5% in FY 2025-2026 and further to 5.0% in FY 2026-2027. Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI is also more optimistic<\/a>, along with IMF<\/a> and EBRD<\/a>, while S&P Global Ratings is less optimistic than the World Bank.<\/p>\n

The report attributes the three consecutive annual upticks in growth to \u201cstronger private <\/strong>consumption, higher private investment<\/strong> \u2014 spurred by the implementation of the investment deal with the United Arab Emirates and anticipated monetary easing \u2014 and a gradual rebound in manufacturing activity.\u201d Macroeconomic stabilization, calming of political tensions, and tourism sector recovery were also highlighted as reasons why the bank expects growth to continue climbing.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s current account deficit is also expected to narrow in FY 2025-2026<\/strong>, driven by a combination of lower oil and natural gas prices, strong remittances, and a \u201cvibrant tourism sector,\u201d the bank suggests. The non-oil trade deficit is also expected to shrink as \u201cthe effects of clearing import backlogs from FY 2024-2025 subside.\u201d<\/p>\n

But despite a broadly optimistic picture, fiscal deficits in oil importers like Egypt <\/strong>are projected to widen in 2025<\/strong>, which the bank partly attributes to \u201cEgypt\u2019s higher interest payments and decline in non-tax revenues\u201d after a significant one-time increase from the Ras El Hekma agreement<\/a> with the UAE. Deficits are expected to decline slightly in 2026, however, as \u201cfiscal consolidation proceeds in Egypt in FY 2025-2026, by implementing a reduction in energy subsidies and enhancing tax revenue mobilization efforts.\u201d Persistent inflation is also expected to keep poverty levels \u201celevated,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n

The region as a whole, ho<\/strong>wever, has not fared trade tensions and a slump in oil prices as <\/strong>well as Egypt<\/strong>, with the World Bank\u2019s latest forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa coming in at 2.7% y-o-y for the current fiscal year. Despite a marginal 0.1 percentage point upgrade from its April projection on the back of \u201can expansion of oil activity in oil exporters,\u201d forecasts are still 0.7 percentage points below the World Bank\u2019s pre-trade war January forecast and a whole 1.5 percentage points below the bank\u2019s 2025 forecast before that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The international lender also released its first growth forecast for FY 2026-2027<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":666690,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-666689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5dd4e5cf-9165-425d-953f-e3248dfe0e6d","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/608.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"World 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