{"id":666622,"date":"2025-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/11\/deutsche-bank-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-06-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T00:00:00","slug":"deutsche-bank-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/11\/deutsche-bank-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Deutsche Bank sees Egypt\u2019<\/strong><strong>s growth prospects improving amid the Central <\/strong><strong>Bank of Egypt\u2019s ongoing easing cycle<\/strong>, expecting stronger domestic demand and higher investment levels coming as a result of monetary easing, the German investment bank wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Stronger domestic demand and more investments will drive growth over the next two <\/strong><strong>fis<\/strong><strong>cal years<\/strong>, according to the lender. Broadly in line with others, the bank sees growth reaching 3.9% y-o-y in the current fiscal year \u2014 which while representing a recovery, still remains below its long-term average due \u201cweaker manufacturing, disruptions in the Red Sea, and fiscal consolidation.\u201d <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Economic activity posted a strong recovery of 4.3% in the second quarter of FY <\/strong><strong>2024<\/strong><strong>-2025,<\/strong> up 2.0 percentage points from the year prior (vs. 2.3% one year ago). The main sectors that drove growth were tourism (+18.0%), non-oil manufacturing (+17.7%), communication (+10.4%), transportation (+9.4%), and financial intermediation (+11.6%), the bank wrote.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Net exports also made their first positive contribution in over a year during the quarter<\/strong>, adding 1.8 percentage points to real growth during 2Q FY 2024-2025. The period also saw a 0.8% recovery in investments, led by a 35.4% rise in private sector investments that offset a 25.7% drop in public investments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But Suez Canal losses and challenges in the hydrocarbon sector could hinder growth.<\/strong> Shipping tonnage through the Suez Canal fell 70.0% y-o-y to 117.5 mn tons in the second quarter of the current fiscal year. In addition, the mining sector saw a 9.2% contraction in activity y-o-y, which was attributed to \u201clower domestic production amid declining foreign investments in new wells and reduced enhancement of existing wells.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The bank believes that the CBE must proceed carefully with its monetary <\/strong><strong>easing cycle<\/strong>, citing upside risks that extend beyond the rising inflationary pressures, including a \u201cpotential FX pass-through should global and geopolitical uncertainty put additional pressures on the currency\u201d \u2014 which could manifest in something similar to the recent EM sell-off and\/or forgone Suez Canal revenue, the bank wrote. Consequently, the bank expects the CBE to cut rates by an additional 400 bps for the remainder of the year, bringing the policy rate to 20.0% by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Looking ahead, growth is e<\/strong><strong>xpected to strengthen again in FY 2025-2026 to<\/strong><strong> 4.5%<\/strong> on the back of a boost in domestic demand driven by easing inflation and financial conditions, as well as further progress on the state asset sales program, which should boost private sector investment. This puts Deutsche Bank\u2019s forecast for the coming fiscal year <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/067ba81c-e766-415f-b4fd-411d7fd49186\/a-look-into-the-government%25e2%2580%2599s-economic-targets-for-the-next-four-fiscal-years\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">in line<\/a> with the governments\u2019 targets. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Several factors could represent risks to this forecast, however.<\/strong> The German lender cautions that a further slowdown in global demand could lead to lower tourism levels, worsened investor sentiment, higher borrowing costs, or a rise in inflation \u2014 all of which could lower Egypt\u2019s growth levels in the near future. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But there are also positive developments that could change the outlook for the better<\/strong>, including the resumption of Suez Canal traffic sooner than expected and an uptick in the country\u2019s extraction sector. Egypt could also find itself as an unexpected beneficiary of the global trade war, with the country\u2019s textile sector potentially attracting investors looking to bypass much heavier tariffs on textile exporter heavyweights like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Mexico.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bank sees Egypt\u2019s growth prospects improving amid the easing cycle, expecting stronger domestic demand and higher investment levels<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":666623,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[2203,104,72,348],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-666622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dc1abb00-389d-4ff3-b7e7-a42f1979ac72","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/515.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Deutsche Bank gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s economy following CBE\u2019s second rate cut of the year","related_issue":[666612],"teaser":"The bank sees Egypt\u2019s growth prospects improving amid the easing cycle, expecting stronger domestic demand and higher investment levels","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/6\/.ec045fa5-f757-4a93-a7ff-4c1cf1d32601.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Nonetheless, the World Bank maintained its forecast for Egypt\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/1\/2429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/15\/egypts-economy-to-grow-at-a-3-5-clip-in-fy2020-2021-deutsche-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":666622,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at a 3.5% clip in FY2020-2021 -Deutsche Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy could grow at a 3.5% clip this fiscal year, supported by government spending, an expansion in the ICT and energy sectors, and growth in net exports, Deutsche Bank said in a report cited by the local press. Meanwhile, construction and non-oil industries are getting the support they need\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572029,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/09\/world-bank-downgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-forecast-this-fiscal-year-to-3-0\/","url_meta":{"origin":666622,"position":2},"title":"World Bank downgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth forecast this fiscal year to 3.0%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"World Bank downgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth forecast to 3.0% for the fiscal year ending this month: The World Bank expects Egypt\u2019s economy to end the current fiscal year \u2014 which comes to a close on 30 June \u2014 with 3.0% growth, down from the 5.9% the bank had penciled in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/93.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571520,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/14\/ebrd-sees-egypts-economy-growing-3-next-fiscal-year-after-sharp-slowdown-in-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":666622,"position":3},"title":"EBRD sees Egypt\u2019s economy growing 3% next fiscal year after \u201csharp\u201d slowdown in 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD sees Egypt\u2019s economy growing 3% next fiscal year after \u201csharp\u201d slowdown in 2020: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in FY2020-2021 to come in at 3% as disruptions from the pandemic weigh on growth during the first six months of the fiscal year,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/156.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568218,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/22\/citi-bullish-on-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":666622,"position":4},"title":"Citi bullish on Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels next year -Citi: Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow by 4.6% in FY2020-2021 and 5.4% the following year, according to a Citibank report picked up by the local press. It said it expects tourism to continue rebounding in 1H2021 and offset some of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/376.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567855,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/09\/egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone\/","url_meta":{"origin":666622,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone: The coming 12 months will be characterized by solid economic growth, low inflation and strong investor appetite for Egyptian debt, Beltone Financial said in its annual Macro and Strategy research note. Stimulus measures pushed out by the central bank and the Finance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/173.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/666622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=666622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/666622\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/666612"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/666623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=666622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=666622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=666622"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=666622"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=666622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}