{"id":665637,"date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/21\/cbe-expects-inflation-to-decelerate-growth-to-accelerate-in-latest-monetary-policy-report\/"},"modified":"2025-05-21T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-expects-inflation-to-decelerate-growth-to-accelerate-in-latest-monetary-policy-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/21\/cbe-expects-inflation-to-decelerate-growth-to-accelerate-in-latest-monetary-policy-report\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE expects inflation to decelerate, growth to accelerate in latest Monetary Policy Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Centra<\/strong>l Bank of Egypt (CBE) is out with its latest <\/strong>Monetary Policy Report (pdf)<\/a><\/strong>, in which it provides a deep dive into Egypt\u2019s economic trajectory and its position within global economic developments while offering its insights and predictions on the country\u2019s economic performance ahead. Below are some of the key takeaways from the 1Q 2025 report.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> The CBE cut interest rates by 225 bps<\/a> in its second meeting of the year in April, in a move that marked the Monetary Policy Committee\u2019s first change to policy rates since March 2024. This move provided context for the bank\u2019s predictions in the report, tying its decision to some of the key indicators of Egypt\u2019s economy over the last quarter. And of course, the report comes just ahead of the central bank meeting once again tomorrow to decide whether to continue or hit pause on its monetary easing cycle.<\/p>\n

The ba<\/strong>nk expects inflation to continue declining for the remainder of this year and <\/strong>through 2026 <\/strong>\u2014 albeit at a slower pace than what we saw in 1Q 2025, with the CBE forecasting the inflation level to reach its targeted average of 7% \u00b12 percentage points by 4Q 2026. This is attributed to the \u201cimplemented and planned fiscal consolidation measures across the forecast horizon, in addition to the relative persistence of non-food inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Driving the decline in inflation<\/strong> is a combination of \u201ceasing supply-chain bottlenecks, global trade flow normalization, and the impact of tight global monetary policy which effectively curbed aggregate demand,\u201d the bank wrote.<\/p>\n

The inflation outlook faces some risks:<\/strong> The CBE stated that its inflation outlook remains subject to risks emanating from \u201chigher-than-expected passthrough of fiscal measures\u201d as well as global risks that include \u201cthe resurgence of trade protectionism, rising geopolitical tensions, and widening global imbalances.\u201d<\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/strong>Annual headline urban inflation rose for the second month running in April<\/a> to hit 13.9%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the 13.6% recorded in March. On a monthly basis, inflation eased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%. Despite the rise, headline inflation is a far cry from the 24.0% recorded in January, with the figure remaining relatively stable since February\u2019s 11.2 percentage point drop<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Growth rates in 2025 so far have been positive<\/strong>, with economic activity in 1Q 2025 expected to have grown at a faster pace from 4Q 2024, the CBE stated. This comes on the back of expanding growth in EGP-denominated loans to the private sector since Q3 2024, which came following six consecutive quarters of negative real growth rates in local currency loans, the CBE added.<\/p>\n

And real GDP growth is expected to continue to climb<\/strong>, forecast at 4.3% in the current fiscal year and 4.8% in the following fiscal year, up from 2.4% in FY 2023-24. This would mark a gradual recovery from the \u201csubdued spell of economic activity during the past two fiscal years,\u201d the bank said. The recovery in growth was largely attributed to increased contributions of real net exports and gross domestic investments \u2014 both of which were aided by the exchange rate unification that came with the CBE\u2019s decision to float the EGP back in March 2024. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe expected recovery is mainly due to the rebound of manufacturing economic activity<\/strong> as shown by leading indicators, reflecting the positive impact of the unification of the foreign exchange markets on the ability of firms to import requisite raw materials and intermediate goods for the production processes,\u201d the CBE wrote. The bank added that \u201cgrowth will be supported by an expected improvement in the contribution of the extractions sector, as various successful onshore and offshore discoveries are projected to revive Egypt\u2019s production of crude oil and natural gas.\u201d<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s ability to finance its external funding needs is also in good shape<\/strong>, with the narrowing current account deficit helping drive a surplus in our balance of payments, which reflected Egypt\u2019s ability to finance its external funding needs, according to the CBE. Surging remittances helped Egypt finance its external funding needs, along with the narrowing of the net investment income deficit, which helped offset the effects of a widening trade deficit and a declining services surplus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bank expects inflation to continue declining for the remainder of this year and through 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":665638,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-665637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c610db2d-5b81-4404-9cd0-e1ad5ff91b1c","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/2177.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBE expects inflation to decelerate, growth to accelerate in latest Monetary Policy Report","related_issue":[665623],"teaser":"The bank expects inflation to continue declining for the remainder of this year and through 2026","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/5\/.9b746497-b29f-4b0e-96c3-d33de1bd04ec.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCBE expects inflation to decelerate, growth to accelerate in latest Monetary Policy Report - 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Meanwhile, construction and non-oil industries are getting the support they need\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594268,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/central-bank-of-egypt-expected-to-begin-orchestrated-unfolding-of-liquidity-economists-say\/","url_meta":{"origin":665637,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt expected to begin \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity, economists say","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the CBE about to begin an \u201corchestrated unfolding\u201d of liquidity to boost credit growth, private investment? CI Capital and Sigma Capital think so. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could kick off a liquidity cycle over the remainder of the year and into 1Q2020 by scaling back its requirements\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/797.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556550,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/31\/egypt-leaves-rates-on-hold-as-cbe-eyes-fed-taper-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":665637,"position":3},"title":"Egypt leaves rates on hold as CBE eyes Fed taper, inflation,","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for an eighth consecutive meeting on Thursday amid rising global inflation and expectations the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus program by the end of the year. The Monetary Policy Committee left overnight deposit and lending rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/320.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571553,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":665637,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves rates unchanged in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE decides to keep a bullet in its chamber, leaving rates on hold at MPC meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for the second consecutive month when it met on Thursday, the central bank said in a statement(pdf). The bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":665637,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/665637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=665637"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/665637\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/665623"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/665638"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=665637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=665637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=665637"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=665637"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=665637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}