{"id":665219,"date":"2025-05-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/14\/ebrd-further-trims-egypts-2025-2026-growth-forecast\/"},"modified":"2025-05-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T00:00:00","slug":"ebrd-further-trims-egypts-2025-2026-growth-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/14\/ebrd-further-trims-egypts-2025-2026-growth-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD further trims Egypt\u2019s 2025, 2026 growth forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

EBRD slashes its forecast for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth: <\/strong>The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) cut its forecast for Egypt\u2019s real GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points from its February<\/a> forecast, the bank wrote in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report (pdf)<\/a>. The multilateral lender now sees the economy growing 4.0% this year and 4.5% in 2026 \u2014 the figures mark an improvement from last year, when the economy grew 3.1%. <\/p>\n

What about the fiscal year? <\/strong>The EBRD now sees the economy growing 3.8% in the current fiscal year \u2014 up 0.2 percentage points from previous predictions \u2014 and 4.4% in the fiscal year 2025-26 \u2014 down 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts. <\/p>\n

Driving the growth:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s GDP growth rose to 3.9% y-o-y in the first half of the fiscal year 2024-25, compared with 2.4% in the same period last fiscal year, which the multilateral lender said was driven by \u201cexpansion in manufacturing, transportation and wholesale and retail trade.\u201d<\/p>\n

How this prediction compares to others: <\/strong>The International Monetary Fund recently upgraded<\/a> Egypt\u2019s growth forecast for the current FY to 3.8%. The forecast was later echoed by analysts and economists polled by Reuters, who tri<\/a>mmed<\/a> the country\u2019s growth forecast for the current FY to 3.8%. As for the coming FY, the IMF sees the economy growing 4.3% y-o-y, while the Reuters poll pencils in 4.6% growth for the FY 25-26. <\/p>\n

Inflation is expected to continue falling throughout the year<\/strong>, reflecting the central bank\u2019s tight monetary policy stance, the bank said. \u201c Rising fuel prices<\/a>, as part of the government\u2019s commitment to reach cost recovery by the end of the year under the IMF-supported program, may put upwards pressure on consumer prices,\u201d the report reads.<\/p>\n

But some think the IMF may agree to slow the pace of energy reform<\/strong>, including Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed, who previously told us<\/a> that getting fuel prices up to cost recovery levels by end of the year would cause \u201cdrastic and rapid movements\u201d in inflation.<\/p>\n

Inflation aside, Egypt also faces high fiscal vulnerabilities compared to other EBRD <\/strong>c<\/strong>ountries:<\/strong> EBRD economies face \u201csignificant fiscal vulnerabilities\u201d that include high government interest payments as a percentage of GDP or a high public debt to GDP ratio, which the bank said is expected to be highest in Egypt. The country faces interest payments of 13% of GDP, according to the report. <\/p>\n

The growth outlook is dependent on a number of factors:<\/strong> For EBRD, Egypt\u2019s growth outlook will largely depend on its implementation of structural reforms \u2014 especially ones that pertain to the state\u2019s presence in the economy, as well as its \u201creduction of debt levels and associated service costs.\u201d Meanwhile, the lender sees risks to the country\u2019s overall outlook, which it says is driven by international trade policy uncertainty as well as Egypt\u2019s \u201ccontinued reliance on portfolio investment from abroad as a source of external financing,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The multilateral lender now sees the economy growing 4.0% this year and 4.5% in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":665220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[571,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-665219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-ebrd","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5e5c9dcc-4815-4d67-8c4a-fa86e71cbc29","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1239.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EBRD 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