{"id":664569,"date":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/04\/gaza-spillovers-reform-delays-weigh-on-egypts-growth-outlook-say-imf\/"},"modified":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","slug":"gaza-spillovers-reform-delays-weigh-on-egypts-growth-outlook-say-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/04\/gaza-spillovers-reform-delays-weigh-on-egypts-growth-outlook-say-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"Gaza spillovers, reform delays weigh on Egypt\u2019s growth outlook, say IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

A s<\/strong>lower ref<\/strong>or<\/strong>m momentum and a strained geopolitical environment have dampened the <\/strong>IMF\u2019s outlook for Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth prospects<\/strong>, the Fund said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook (pdf)<\/a>, adding that \u201ceconomic activity is expected to pick up but remain modest\u201d this year. The cascading effects of the war on Gaza and a heavier debt service burden have further \u201ccomplicated\u201d Egypt\u2019s post-pandemic fiscal consolidation efforts, the report noted.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The IMF has revised up its growth forecast for Egypt<\/a> this fiscal year to 3.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from its January outlook. The fund\u2019s projection for the coming fiscal year also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3%.<\/p>\n

Regional spillovers produced an unfortunate twin deficit. <\/strong>A pronounced slowdown in Suez Canal receipts \u2014 driven by regional geopolitical tensions \u2014 significantly impacted the state\u2019s fiscal revenues. The same tensions also contributed to suppressing exports, which widened the current account deficit, which has been partially offset by the landmark, one-off USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- <\/strong>Egypt lost around USD 7 bn<\/a> (c. EGP 350 bn) in Suez Canal revenues in 2024, contributing to a drop in non-tax revenues. Receipts from the vital trade route are expected to partially recover to USD 6.3 bn<\/a> in FY 2025-26 in the draft budget \u2014 up from an estimated USD 3.7 bn this year.<\/p>\n

Investor confidence was further dented by contractionary monetary policy and a <\/strong>persistent FX crunch<\/strong>, the report said. At the same time, soaring debt service costs \u2014 exceeding 9% of GDP \u2014 widened the fiscal deficit, while tighter spending controls helped deliver a higher primary surplus; the figure, nonetheless, fell short of projections.<\/p>\n

Egypt is among a group of countries that will likely need to refinance maturing debt at <\/strong>higher yields<\/strong>, alongside Tunisia, Jordan, and Pakistan, the Fund warned. Gross public financing needs across the region for emerging markets and middle-income countries (plus Pakistan) are set to rise to USD 263 bn in 2025 \u2014 up from USD 249 bn in 2024 \u2014 and balloon to USD 303 bn by 2029. The IMF flagged this as a key debt sustainability risk, particularly in light of heightened global uncertainty and investor sensitivity.<\/p>\n

So, what is to be done?<\/strong> The IMF wants Egypt to move faster on fiscal reforms, meaning broaden the tax base and rein in state-owned enterprise risks. On the monetary front, it recommends keeping the rates high until inflation is clearly under control while continuing to lay the groundwork for inflation targeting.<\/p>\n

But the Fund also had some optimistic forecasts<\/strong>, singling out Egypt as a potential beneficiary of an improved regional security environment over the medium term. A gradual recovery in exports, Suez Canal activity, and tourism inflows is expected to help narrow the country\u2019s current account deficit, the IMF said.<\/p>\n

ON A REGIONAL BASIS- <\/strong>The Fund notes strengthened economic activity across the region, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated in October of last year<\/a> \u2014 amid spillovers from escalating global trade tensions, prolonged regional conflicts, and a more gradual recovery in oil production. Regional growth is now projected at 2.6% in 2025, sharply down from the 4.0% forecast in October, and at 3.4% in 2026. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IMF downgraded the MENA region's growth outlook to 2.6% for 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":664570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,272,182,6984],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-664569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-middle-east-politics","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bb226ad0-682e-49d6-97a2-353f20cea3c4","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1412.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Gaza spillovers, reform delays weigh on Egypt\u2019s growth outlook, say IMF","related_issue":[664564],"teaser":"The IMF downgraded the MENA region's growth outlook to 2.6% for 2025","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/5\/.4e97f9af-6b45-49bf-9f35-23ac055bf8eb.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGaza spillovers, reform delays weigh on Egypt\u2019s growth outlook, say IMF - 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An IMF delegation was (virtually) in townover the past two weeks for the second review of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/229.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":585192,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/12\/rising-rates-risk-global-growth-imf-warns\/","url_meta":{"origin":664569,"position":3},"title":"Rising rates risk global growth, IMF warns","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cChances of a hard landing have risen sharply,\u201d IMF warns","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/519.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548131,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":664569,"position":4},"title":"IMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562463,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/25\/last-nights-talk-shows-biden-and-el-sisis-call-imfs-mohieldin-on-covid-19-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":664569,"position":5},"title":"Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows: Biden and El Sisi\u2019s call + IMF\u2019s Mohieldin on covid-19 outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and US President Joe Biden\u2019s phone call yesterday on reinforcing the Palestine-Israel ceasefire and reviving the peace process was in the limelight on last night\u2019s talk shows. Ala Mas\u2019ouleety\u2019s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 5:35) and Masaa DMC\u2019s Jasmine Zaky (watch, runtime: 3:58) had cut-and-dry coverage,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664569\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/664564"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/664570"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664569"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=664569"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=664569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}