{"id":664240,"date":"2025-04-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/27\/world-bank-upgrades-growth-forecast-to-3-8-for-current-fiscal-year\/"},"modified":"2025-04-27T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-27T00:00:00","slug":"world-bank-upgrades-growth-forecast-to-3-8-for-current-fiscal-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/27\/world-bank-upgrades-growth-forecast-to-3-8-for-current-fiscal-year\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank upgrades growth forecast to 3.8% for current fiscal year"},"content":{"rendered":"

World Ban<\/strong>k (finally) raises our growth outlook for FY 2024-25: <\/strong>The World Bank sees the Egyptian economy growing at a 3.8% y-o-y clip during the fiscal year 2024-2025, raising its outlook 0.3 percentage points from its 3.5%<\/a>forecast<\/a>in October<\/a>, the international lender said in its semi-annual MENA economic update \u2014 Shifting Gears: The private sector as an engine of growth in the Middle East and North Africa (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The rationale: <\/strong>The World Bank attributes the improved outlook to expectations of strengthening private consumption as inflationary pressures gradually subside. The lender sees Egypt\u2019s inflation averaging 20.9% in the current fiscal year, down from 33.6% in FY 2023-24, supported by exchange rate adjustments earlier last year and elevated policy rates, with \u201cfavorable base effects will continue to play a role in the year-on-year drop in inflation.\u201d The lender sees inflation hitting 15.5% in the upcoming fiscal year. <\/p>\n

The World Bank noted Egypt\u2019s growth<\/strong> slowed to 2.4% in FY 2023-24<\/strong> \u2014 down 0.1 percentage points from its October estimate \u2014 due to weak manufacturing performance, subdued Suez Canal revenues, and import restrictions. <\/p>\n

Suez Canal <\/strong>revenues <\/strong>remain under pressure<\/strong>: <\/strong>Suez Canal receipts are expected to fall to USD 3.7 bn this fiscal year \u2014 USD 5.1 bn below pre-Gaza war levels \u2014 as ships continue rerouting. As of February, traffic through the canal was still 54% below pre-October 2023 averages, the report read. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation rose in March<\/a> to 13.6%, ending a four-month decline and marking a 0.8 percentage point increase from February\u2019s 12.8%. Analysts expect a modest further uptick in April as Ramadan-related food price pressures linger, but the broader outlook remains tilted toward easing as core inflation continues to cool.<\/p>\n

Despite the uncertainties, growth is on a stable trajectory: <\/strong>The lender maintained its FY 2025-26 growth outlook at 4.2% \u2014 unchanged from its October forecast and 0.3 percentage points shy of the Madbouly government\u2019s 4.5% projection<\/a> for the fiscal year.<\/p>\n

REGIONALLY-<\/strong> The lender sees the MENA region\u2019s growth reaching 2.6% this year, up from 1.9% in 2024, with GCC economies expected to grow 3.2% in 2025. Meanwhile, developing oil exporters are forecast to lag at 0.8%, and oil importers \u2014 including Egypt \u2014 are projected to expand by 3.4%. The rebound will be driven by higher oil output as OPEC+ accelerates rollback plans in May, alongside non-oil growth in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman.<\/p>\n

There are multiple caveats to the improved regional outlook:<\/strong> Weather shocks, oil market volatility, regional fragility, and a potential global slowdown could all weigh on MENA\u2019s recovery, the World Bank warned. For oil exporters, weaker demand and price swings could hit fiscal and external balances. Oil importers could benefit from cheaper oil but face risks from lower remittances, shaky consumer sentiment, and possible capital outflows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The forecast is 0.3 percentage points above the 3.5% forecast in October<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":664241,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-664240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fe066ae1-7fba-4b02-aff2-5d58dc2c6105","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1292.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"World 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576359,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/22\/govt-revises-fy2020-21-gdp-forecast-upwards-to-3-8\/","url_meta":{"origin":664240,"position":3},"title":"Gov\u2019t revises FY2020\/21 GDP forecast upwards to 3.8%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Gov\u2019t GDP forecast revised upwards:The government expects the economy to grow at a 3.5-3.8% clip in the current fiscal year, Deputy Planning Minister Ahmed Kamaly said on the sidelines of an energy conference yesterday. 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