{"id":664147,"date":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/23\/imf-cuts-growth-forecasts-as-tariffs-hit-global-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","slug":"imf-cuts-growth-forecasts-as-tariffs-hit-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/23\/imf-cuts-growth-forecasts-as-tariffs-hit-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF cuts growth forecasts as tariffs hit global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

IMF forecasts lower global growth this year:<\/strong> The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to log 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from previous estimates, it said in its World Economic Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>. Growth is expected to edge up to 3.0% in 2026, though this remains below the IMF\u2019s earlier projections at 3.3%.<\/p>\n

We all know the culprit: <\/strong>The revision is a direct consequence of \u201cnew trade measures and their indirect effects through trade linkage spillovers, heightened uncertainty, and deteriorating sentiment.\u201d <\/p>\n

Major economies projected to take a hit:<\/strong> The US is now expected to grow 1.8% in 2025, down nearly one percentage point from the previous forecast, as \u201cgreater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and a softer demand outlook\u201d weigh down on consumption. Meanwhile, Japan\u2019s growth was cut by 0.5 points to 0.6%, with tariff concerns expected to offset gains in private consumption and disposable income. The Fund also downgraded its forecast for Canada\u2019s growth by 0.6 percentage points, and for the UK by half a point.<\/p>\n

China and India will bear the brunt too: <\/strong>China\u2019s 2025 outlook was cut by 0.6 points to 4.0%, as trade restrictions \u201coffset the stronger carryover from 2024 and fiscal expansion in the budget.\u201d The following year comes with a similar downward revision and growth forecast. Meanwhile, India\u2019s growth was trimmed by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2%.<\/p>\n

Across the Atlantic:<\/strong> Growth in the Eurozone is expected to decline \u201cslightly\u201d to 0.8% this year. Still, the IMF projects a stronger growth of 1.2% next year, driven by stronger consumption and rising wages as \u201cdebt brake\u201d reforms in Germany spur growth.<\/p>\n

Spain is a rare bright spot in the Fund\u2019s updated forecasts<\/strong>, with an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points, leaving 2025 growth forecast at 2.5%. This reflects \u201ca large carryover from better-than-expected outturns in 2024 and reconstruction activity following floods,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n

Tariff clouds may turn into showers:<\/strong> Recent waves of US tariffs and the resulting retaliatory measures by China, Canada, and the EU have created \u201cunprecedented\u201d policy uncertainty. This is dragging down global trade volumes, which are now expected to grow just 1.7% in 2025 \u2014 a full 1.5 percentage points lower than previous expectations.<\/p>\n

A new era: <\/strong>\u201cThe increased uncertainty and tightening of financial conditions could well dominate the short term, weighing on economic activity, as reflected in the sharp decline in oil prices,\u201d IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog post<\/a>. Growth prospects could see immediate improvement, however, if countries managed to move past differences and forge new trade agreements, Gourinchas added.<\/p>\n

The inflation outlook <\/strong>Global inflation is expected to decline the next two years, hovering at around 4.3% in 2025 (revised slightly upwards) and at 3.6% in 2026.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are in the green this morning<\/strong>, after comments from the Donald sparked hopes for tariff de-escalation. Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is leading gains with a 1.8% increase, followed by Japan\u2019s Nikkei at 1.7%. Wall Street futures are also inching up<\/strong> following strong gains yesterday, after Trump denied plans to remove the Fed chief.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,844<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.97<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.99<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,586<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9257<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5134<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -0.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5288<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.5% (YTD: -10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8329<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +1.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4961<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +1.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 67.94<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.05<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3348.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 92,859.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+6.5% (YTD: -0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 2.8 bn (30.5% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 3.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Emaar Misr (+2.4%), Madinet Masr (+1.5%), and Edita (+1.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Eipico (-4.4%), Telecom Egypt (-3.1%), and Eastern Company (-2.3%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

Madinet Masr has purchased 1.5 mn shares as part of a treasury stock buyback <\/strong>program<\/strong>, the company said in a disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The real estate company last week<\/a> bought back 42.7 mn shares \u2014 around 2% of its capital. The total program aims to buy back up to 4% of the company\u2019s total capital (around 85.4 mn shares) through open market transactions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fund cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":664148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-664147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0a6429fa-e007-4e6f-934c-4468c39d651b","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/1461.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF cuts growth forecasts as tariffs hit global economy","related_issue":[664126],"teaser":"The Fund cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.4bb8be7b-a224-4151-a811-954b8de8cbf7.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIMF cuts growth forecasts as tariffs hit global economy - 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This is a downwards revision from the 3.3% growth economists predicted in the last poll the newswire conducted in October. The forecast sits at the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s most recent GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/343.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579278,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/01\/imf-trims-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":664147,"position":1},"title":"IMF trims Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Egypt, saying it sees GDP growing 4.0% this year, a 0.4 percentage point trim from its previous forecast in October, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released yesterday (here and here, pdf). That\u2019s in line with forecasts from the Madbouly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/3.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575410,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/14\/imf-warns-of-long-protracted-recovery-as-it-eases-global-recession-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":664147,"position":2},"title":"IMF warns of long, protracted recovery as it eases global recession forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF warns of long, slow recovery as it eases global recession forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees the world\u2019s GDP contracting at a 4.4% pace \u2014 an improvement from the 4.9% it projected in its June outlook \u2014 after economies coming out of lockdown showed improved trade, retail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/143.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542966,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/26\/egypt-bucks-the-trend-as-imf-downgrades-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":664147,"position":3},"title":"Egypt bucks the trend as IMF downgrades global growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF downgraded its projection for global growth in 2022 to 4.4% in its World Economic Outlook update, down 0.5 percentage points from its last outlook report in October. The lender sees growth slowing to 3.8% in 2023, noting that, although this forecast is 0.2 percentage points higher than its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/340.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572457,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/25\/imf-forecasts-deeper-recession-slower-recovery-as-virus-fears-linger\/","url_meta":{"origin":664147,"position":4},"title":"IMF forecasts deeper recession, slower recovery as virus fears linger","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"YOUR DAILY DOSE OF GLOOM- IMF forecasts deeper global recession, slower recovery as virus fears linger: The global economy will suffer a deeper recession than previously expected as the pandemic continues to intensify in some parts of the world, and businesses and consumers continue to reel from the effects of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/272.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":585192,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/12\/rising-rates-risk-global-growth-imf-warns\/","url_meta":{"origin":664147,"position":5},"title":"Rising rates risk global growth, IMF warns","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cChances of a hard landing have risen sharply,\u201d IMF warns","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/519.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664147\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/664126"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/664148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664147"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=664147"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=664147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}