{"id":664131,"date":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/23\/imf-raises-our-growth-forecast-despite-regional-downgrade\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","slug":"imf-raises-our-growth-forecast-despite-regional-downgrade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/23\/imf-raises-our-growth-forecast-despite-regional-downgrade\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF raises our growth forecast, despite regional downgrade"},"content":{"rendered":"

The International Monetary Fund now sees Egypt\u2019s growth coming in at a <\/strong>3.8% y-o-y clip this fiscal year<\/strong>, up 0.2 percentage points from its January forecast<\/a>, according to the fund\u2019s World Economic Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>. Its projection for the coming fiscal year was also up, likewise coming in 0.2 percentage points higher from its previous projection to 4.3% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

The upgrade is a vote of confidence in Egypt\u2019s post-float reforms<\/strong>, Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat said. \u201cDespite global risks stemming from trade wars and protectionist policies, Egypt\u2019s push for structural transformation and sustainable growth \u2014 led by the private sector \u2014 enables it to maintain positive growth rates,\u201d she said. Al Mashat also reiterated her ministry\u2019s forecast that the economy will grow quicker than the Fund expects, coming in at 4.0% y-o-y clip for the fiscal year.<\/p>\n

The shift from a non-tradeable to a more tradeable economy has helped push the scales<\/strong>, which has already been reflected in strong 2Q FY 2023-24 figures showing growth of 2.1 percentage points y-o-y to 4.3%, Al Mashat added. The minister also pointed to a reduction in public investment spending that has helped shore up macro stability and improve the business climate. The uptick came with a rebound in tourism, growing ICT industry, and the logistics sector, despite a continued decline in Suez Canal revenues.<\/p>\n

However, t<\/strong>he region<\/strong>al outlook was not as promising<\/strong>, with the fund seeing growth across the MENA region reaching 2.6% y-o-y in 2025, down a whole 0.9 percentage points as Trump\u2019s trade war and the downturn in oil prices takes its toll. Its regional outlook for 2026 was also scaled back, slowing 0.5 percentage points to 3.4% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still too early to tell what impact tariffs will have on Egypt, but the state is monitoring <\/strong>developments <\/strong>and is ready to revise forecasts if needed, Al Mashat added. The minister also pointed to ongoing reforms and a more tradable economy as helping bolster the country\u2019s resilience to external shocks.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The IMF also sees inflation continuing to dip this fiscal year<\/strong>, pencilling in a monthly average of 19.7% y-o-y. This a decent step up from the 9M monthly average of 22.8% y-o-y, according to EnterpriseAM calculations using data from state statistics agency Capmas. The projection also indicates that \u2014 in contrast to an expected 4Q uptick by some analysts \u2014 inflation will continue to fall from the 13.6% recorded in March<\/a> for the coming three months. <\/p>\n

Inflation is seen slowing again in the coming fiscal year to a 12.5% clip<\/strong>, bringing the country closer to the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s inflation target<\/a> of 7% (\u00b12 percentage points) inflation for 4Q 2026.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s not all good news, with the current account deficit expected to widen to 5.8% of<\/strong> GDP in the current fiscal year<\/strong>, up from 5.4% last year, before tightening to 3.7% in 2026, the report reads. Unemployment is also expected to edge up from 7.4% in the last fiscal year to 7.7% this FY and the next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IMF now sees the economy growing at 3.8% and 4.3% in 2025 and 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":664132,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,272],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-664131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7b7f68cd-d32b-440a-b117-5b9b1a97b5fe","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/2880.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF raises Egypt growth forecast, despite regional downgrade","related_issue":[664126],"teaser":"The IMF now sees the economy growing at 3.8% and 4.3% in 2025 and 2026","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.f46ef242-8c48-444c-aac3-c9574f43f081.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIMF raises our growth forecast, despite regional downgrade - 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