{"id":664058,"date":"2025-04-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/22\/cbe-cuts-rates-for-the-first-time-since-november-2020\/"},"modified":"2025-04-22T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-cuts-rates-for-the-first-time-since-november-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/22\/cbe-cuts-rates-for-the-first-time-since-november-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE cuts rates for the first time since November 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The Cen<\/strong><strong>tral Bank of Egypt cut interest rates by 225 bps in its second meeting of the year <\/strong><strong>on Thursday<\/strong>, the bank said in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/1206.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">statement (pdf)<\/a>. The move marks the Monetary Policy Committee\u2019s (MPC) first change to the policy rates since <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/3135c499-31a4-4ef0-b26f-5009f0430da5\/this-evening:-cbe-floats-the-egp,-goes-for-600-bps-rate-hike\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">March 2024<\/a>, following seven consecutive meetings where rates were <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/33887fd4-82fe-47f2-901d-7377ee97b0df\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">held steady<\/a>. It is also the bank\u2019s first rate cut since November 2020. The decision was supported by cooling inflation in the first quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Where rates currently stand:<\/strong> The overnight deposit rate now stands at 25.0%, the overnight lending rate at 26.0%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 25.5%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Most economists and analysts w<\/strong><strong>e <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f1347317-543b-4d91-921b-af6a6917e45b\/majority-of-analysts-see-the-central-bank-cutting-rates-on-thursday--enterpriseam-poll\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">polled<\/a><\/strong><strong> last w<\/strong><strong>eek saw this coming<\/strong>, with most expecting the MPC to cut rates by at least 200 bps, while others gave a more conservative estimate of a 100 bp cut.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cThe sharp decline in annual headline <\/strong><strong>inflation<\/strong><strong>\u201d in 1Q 2025 created \u201cample room for<\/strong> <strong>commencing the easing cycle,\u201d<\/strong> the MPC said, noting that inflation during the quarter dropped by nearly 9 percentage points. Additionally, inflation is expected to continue to fall throughout this year and 2026, \u201calbeit at a slower pace\u201d than that of 1Q, the committee said. \u201cImprovements in economic indicators despite recent global developments prompted the CBE\u2019s decision, with the bank seeing that it could still meet its goals this year as inflation continues to decline,\u201d Thndr Securities Brokerage\u2019s Chief Equity Strategist Amr El Alfy told EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>However, inflation is still \u201cvulnerable to upside risks\u201d<\/strong> from recent global developments, including the US-China trade war and continued geopolitical tensions, the MPC said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER-<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation hit <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/887b908d-b7c1-4275-8cae-5a88ee5c4cc7\/egypt%e2%80%99s-inflation-picks-up-in-march-to-13.6%25,-snapping-months-long-downward-trend\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">13.6%<\/a> in March, marking a 0.8 percentage point increase from the 12.8% recorded in February and ending a four-month-long downward trend. Food and beverage price inflation drove the increase, with the segment rising 2.9 percentage points to 6.6% in March. On a monthly basis, inflation edged up by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The CBE is slowly changing its tune in response to the economic outlook.<\/strong> \u201cWhat stood out for me was the shift in tone compared to the last meeting, which felt overly cautious at the time. Now, the central bank is clearly acknowledging the disinflationary trend,\u201d economist Mona Bedair told us. \u201cWhile the tone is more balanced this time \u2014 recognizing tighter real rates and easing inflation expectations \u2014 it\u2019s still anchored in risk awareness, particularly around fiscal pass-through, regional geopolitics, and global trade dynamics,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The move was essential for economic growth and investment<\/strong>, Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Esraa Ahmed told EnterpriseAM. \u201cThe decision was a satisfying one \u2014 it stays within the realm of a cautious cut that the current economic situation needs. We believe the bank needed to begin its easing cycle to nourish the economy, lessen investment costs, encourage foreign direct investment, and potentially benefit from the trade war, as it could prompt countries to invest in less affected economies,\u201d Ahmed said. \u201cThis cut isn\u2019t big enough to create much of an impact on its own, but it is an indication that the bank is moving towards the needed easing cycle,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>More and even larger rate cuts could be coming our way.<\/strong> \u201cIf these risks prove to be better contained \u2014 or at least measurable \u2014 we could see a broader easing cycle ahead, Bedair said. \u201cIn my view, there\u2019s room for a cumulative policy cut of more than 600 bps in 2025, depending on how inflation unfolds. This isn\u2019t a pivot to an expansionary stance. It\u2019s a controlled, data-driven recalibration \u2014 one that protects monetary credibility while finally starting to support real growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The central bank believes that economic activity can reach its full potential in the next <\/strong><strong>fiscal <\/strong><strong>year.<\/strong> \u201cEstimates for the output gap indicate that actual economic activity remains below its full potential \u2026 but is projected to reach full potential\u201d by the end of FY 2025-26, the bank said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The rate cuts are good news for Egypt\u2019s debt servicing costs, which could now fall by <\/strong><strong>over EGP 100 bn<\/strong>, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM, noting that every 100 bp reduction saves around EGP 50 bn in interest payments. Interest spending is set to make up the majority of the government\u2019s total expenses in its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/34ccc1e0-b104-4cf1-a9f7-903d3403cd70\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">newly drafted FY 2025-26 budget<\/a> with some 50.2% of its total spending, equivalent to EGP 2.3 tn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But the easing cycle may take time to filter through the budget<\/strong>, the source added. But in the longer term, the central bank\u2019s anticipated monetary easing cycle \u2014 alongside the new budget\u2019s assumption of a 16% average rate \u2014 should help ease the state\u2019s debt burden over time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>We should also see the launch of alternative debt instruments soon following the cuts<\/strong>, as the Finance Ministry had been waiting for the bank to move before issuing <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/b6b41452-184e-4beb-b7f7-95a2a922a329\/government-plans-on-issuing-usd-2-bn-in%253cmark%253e-sukuk%253c%2Fmark%253e-in-2025-through-multiple-offerings,-kouchouk-says\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Islamic sukuk<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/af43b682-4ee2-4d27-b5c4-946a6d79b04a\/egypt-post-to-issue-upcoming%253cmark%253e-retail-bonds%253c%2Fmark%253e\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">retail bonds<\/a>, and other products, which are now much easier to price fairly in a more moderate interest rate environment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Banks are already gearing up to cut rates on savings accounts<\/strong>, with CIB announcing in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/1270.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">note (pdf)<\/a> to customers that it will cut interest rates on its savings accounts and its certificates of deposits (CDs) by 225 bps, starting today. Other banks could follow suit, including the National Bank of Egypt, which is set to soon hold a meeting to review interest rates on CDs in line with the CBE\u2019s new rates, CEO Mohamed El Etreby said. However, some banks may choose not to cut their rates the whole 225 bps as they have become an important source of funding that banks may want to maintain \u2014 even if it means having to shoulder narrower margins and increasing costs, banking expert Hany Abou El Fotouh told us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Banks had already been cutting rates in preparation for the CBE\u2019s decision.<\/strong> Banque Misr, CIB, and QNB Alahli \u2014 to name a few \u2014 all <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/009d7157-6591-4b66-9874-678672086127\/how-egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-commercial-banks-are-bracing-for-a-potential-rate-cut\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">slashed rates<\/a> on their certificates in recent months in preparation for the CBE\u2019s easing cycle. But even with reduced rates, \u201ccertificates will remain the safest bank savings instruments available,\u201d banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Lenders are also expected to turn to bonds to lock in the highest possible yield<\/strong> and could move to issue variable-yield certificates of deposit instead of fixed-rate ones during the CBE\u2019s easing cycle, a senior banking executive told EnterpriseAM previously. To main profitability, banks could also turn towards the high-demand SME sector, reduce costs by digitizing services, and by \u201cdiversifying revenues through service fees and investing in government debt instruments,\u201d Abou El Fotouh said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The international press also reported the rate cut<\/strong>: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/rates-bonds\/egypt-cuts-interest-rates-first-time-since-2020-2025-04-17\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a> | <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-04-17\/egypt-makes-first-rate-cut-since-2020-with-inflation-tamed\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The CBE indicated that the \u201csharp decline in annual headline inflation\u201d in 1Q 2025 created \u201cample room for commencing the easing cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":664059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,240,104,72,349,248],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-664058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-cib","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-national-bank-of-egypt","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"030e8a7e-a0f6-48c5-bf6c-794c43555671","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/178.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBE cuts rates for the first time since November 2020","related_issue":[664050],"teaser":"The CBE indicated that the \u201csharp decline in annual headline inflation\u201d in 1Q 2025 created \u201cample room for commencing the easing cycle.\u201d","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.15fe7227-e5f3-4d5f-9676-c5851613ad54.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Prices fell 0.3% on a monthly basis compared to 1% growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/1406.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":664058,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/15\/egypts-economy-to-grow-at-a-3-5-clip-in-fy2020-2021-deutsche-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":664058,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at a 3.5% clip in FY2020-2021 -Deutsche Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy could grow at a 3.5% clip this fiscal year, supported by government spending, an expansion in the ICT and energy sectors, and growth in net exports, Deutsche Bank said in a report cited by the local press. 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The data vendor arm of the ratings agency said that easing inflation and the two consecutive rate cuts in the US will encourage the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568327,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/27\/you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":664058,"position":4},"title":"You called it: CBE leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold in its policy meeting on Thursday, citing higher inflation and muted economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). 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