{"id":663950,"date":"2025-04-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/17\/oxford-economics-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-04-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T00:00:00","slug":"oxford-economics-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/17\/oxford-economics-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Oxford Economics gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff plan, coupled with lingering geopolitical tensions in <\/strong>the region, has contributed to a feeling of uncertainty over Egypt\u2019s economic prospects<\/strong>, Oxford Economics wrote in a report seen by EnterpriseAM. The report assesses the impact of recent global developments on Egypt\u2019s economy on the short and long terms and their implications on Egypt\u2019s macroeconomic indicators for the year.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s tariffs could (indirectly) slow down Egypt\u2019s economic growth.<\/strong> \u201cEgypt escaped relatively unscathed, with only a 10% baseline tariff on goods exported to the US. However, Cairo should still feel the effect of harsher tariffs on other countries as it is expected to result in lower global economic growth,\u201d the report reads. This will also push down investment from the private sector, which the report describes as \u201cparticularly concerning for Egypt given the government\u2019s divestment drive.\u201d <\/p>\n

The global trade war and fears of lower global economic growth pushed Oxford <\/strong>Economics to cut its growth forecast for Egypt by 0.1 percentage point.<\/strong> Oxford Economics now sees real GDP growth coming in at 4.1% in 2025 \u2014 a 1.0 percentage point jump from 2024 \u2014 before accelerating further to 4.7% over the next two years.<\/p>\n

Egypt should do comparatively better than much of the globe<\/strong>, as \u201cthe effect of the trade tariffs on the Egyptian economy will likely pale in comparison to the anticipated slowdown in global economic growth and a subdued investment climate,\u201d the report reads. However, the impact of the trade war \u2014 as well as the spillover effects from regional tensions \u2014 will put a fiscal squeeze on the government as Suez Canal revenues continue to remain well below normal levels.<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics is also ringing the bell for more budget cuts<\/strong>, describing the 18% rise in the public sector wage bill in the draft budget for the next fiscal year as \u201cconcerning,\u201d given that inflation is forecast at 12% y-o-y over the same period. Despite the criticism, the advisory firm described the proposed budget as \u201csensible\u201d and said that \u201cthe 18% increase in fiscal expenditure is not that significant.\u201d<\/p>\n

Forecasts of a significant downturn in inflation were also pushed back<\/strong>, with inflation expected to hover around 13.5% until the last quarter of the year on the back of a strengthening USD. Despite the expectation of sticky inflation over the months to come, the firm expects the central bank to cut rates by 300 bps this Thursday \u2014 putting their interest rate forecast at the upper-end of predictions we\u2019ve heard from analysts<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s tariffs could \u2014 albeit indirectly \u2014 slow down Egypt\u2019s economic growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663951,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,348,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fb22c334-377e-4818-8fbb-3cd3ec8818f3","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/861.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Oxford Economics gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s economy amid trade war, geopolitical tensions","related_issue":[663937],"teaser":"Trump\u2019s tariffs could \u2014 albeit indirectly \u2014 slow down Egypt\u2019s economic growth","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.1da3def9-1137-4281-bf7b-aafdf905b682.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nOxford Economics gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s economy - 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The Solar Energy Development Association (SEDA) has sent a letter to Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker requesting that the ministry cancel the duty, warning that the new levy will hurt the industry. \u201cEgypt\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Green economy"","block_context":{"text":"Green economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/green-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567053,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/12\/egypts-economy-to-grow-5-9-this-year-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":663950,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 5.9% this year -World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 5.9% this year -World Bank: Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 5.9% clip in FY2020-2021, with the growth rate set to accelerate to 6% in FY2021-2022 and remain at that level throughout the following fiscal year, according to the World Bank\u2019s Global Economic Prospects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/567.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598872,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/11\/standard-chartered-gives-thumbs-up-to-egypts-economic-reform-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":663950,"position":4},"title":"Standard Chartered gives thumbs up to Egypt\u2019s economic reform program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Standard Chartered gives thumbs up to Egypt\u2019s economic reform program: Egypt will be the only oil-importing Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) economy to see accelerating economic growth in the coming years, Standard Chartered has said in a report. The British bank predicts anaemic growth in other MENAP oil-importers,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1541.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566058,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/25\/egypts-post-covid-growth-will-need-increased-private-sector-involvement-european-commission\/","url_meta":{"origin":663950,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s post-covid growth will need increased private sector involvement \u2013European Commission","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt needs to involve the non-oil private sector in its sustainable covid recovery plan, according to an economic brief by the European Commission. The removal of non-tariff barriers and the levelling of the playing field between public and private companies should activate the private sector\u2019s potential for job creation and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663950\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/663937"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663950"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=663950"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=663950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}