{"id":663884,"date":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/16\/emerging-markets-are-rattled-by-tariff-war\/"},"modified":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","slug":"emerging-markets-are-rattled-by-tariff-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/16\/emerging-markets-are-rattled-by-tariff-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging markets are rattled by tariff war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tariffs are fueling investor anxiety across emerging markets (EM)<\/strong>, prompting a shift toward safer assets and adding pressure on currencies and riskier holdings, Bloomberg<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

Wrecking ball:<\/strong> Societe Generale strategists expect most EM currencies to decline, with China\u2019s CNY projected to see a \u201cmodest\u201d depreciation, while South Africa\u2019s ZAR and Latin American currencies could be in for sluggish performance. The \u201cwrecking ball [is] still underway in EM FX, but will slow,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n

Optimism is waning:<\/strong> Despite the MSCI EM Currency Index reaching a five-month high last week, investor sentiment remains largely pessimistic due to the ongoing trade war. The Colombian COP and Indonesian IDR led declines<\/a> among EM currencies last week, while last Monday saw China set its CNY fixing to the weakest level since September 2023 at CNY 7.2038 per USD.<\/p>\n

Even a weaker USD wouldn\u2019t help:<\/strong> Any unwinding of the USD will benefit developed market currencies more than EM, according to Goldman Sachs Group strategists, with investors using the selloff to seek out undervalued assets in the US.<\/p>\n

The risk-off approach is hitting some more than others:<\/strong> Emerging markets with political instability \u2014 such as Turkey, Indonesia, and South Korea \u2014 are adding to investor risk-off sentiment. In Turkey, Morgan Stanley projects a weaker TRY by year-end, estimating a USD 10 bn drop in foreign reserves due to tariff-driven outflows. Local FX demand will be key to the country\u2019s reserves outlook, Morgan Stanley analysts Hande Kucuk and Arnav Gupta told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

Oil woes are also inflicting pain:<\/strong> A steep drop in oil prices \u2014 triggered by the tariffs \u2014 is piling pressure<\/a> on emerging market oil exporters. Brent crude dropped more than 20% in the week following the April 2 tariff announcement, briefly touching below USD 60 per barrel before rebounding. Oil-dependent economies, including Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, are expected to face a hit to hard-currency revenues, while oil-importing countries are set to see some benefits from the falling prices, according to investors cited by the newswire.<\/p>\n

How will EM respond?<\/strong> Trump\u2019s tactics may embolden political leaders to adopt more radical approaches, increasing the likelihood of extreme market swings, said Malin Rosengren, a fund manager at RBC BlueBay. \u201cNo doubt we will be seeing more instances across EM of strong man politics testing the limits of the new world order,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The panic won\u2019t continue for long, though: <\/strong>Rosengren believes that after experiencing volatility for an extended period, investors are likely to fall back on economic fundamentals \u2014 like growth prospects, inflation, and interest rates \u2014 rather than being overly influenced by short-term political drama or instability.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the red this morning<\/strong>, with Hang Seng (Hong Kong) down 1.6%, Japan\u2019s Nikkei down 0.7%, and Shanghai Composite down 0.6%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are inching down after Nvidia announced it will suffer a hefty USD 5.5 bn quarterly charge on its exports to China due to tariffs.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,185<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.01% (YTD: +4.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.92<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.93<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,617<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -3.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9290<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -1.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5078<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: -1.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5397<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8249<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4970<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 64.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3248.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 83,897.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: -10.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 was essentially flat at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.0 bn (11.6% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 4.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>E-finance (+4.3%), Orascom Development (+3.5%), and ADIB (+3.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Credit Agricole (-14.5%), Juhayna (-2.0%), and Rameda (-1.8%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investor sentiment remains largely pessimistic<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663885,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[102,380,984,115,72,164,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-currencies","tag-donald-trump","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-equities","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"37f72d97-9937-4e74-8c10-678a6640f46b","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/801.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Trump\u2019s trade war rattles emerging markets currencies, equities","related_issue":[663863],"teaser":"Investor sentiment remains largely pessimistic","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.a3446aef-721f-4f14-8c95-8cb2ac85f13a.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nEmerging markets are rattled by tariff war - 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EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542742,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/13\/high-real-rates-ward-off-bears-in-em-fx-markets-ksa-plans-equities-splurge\/","url_meta":{"origin":663884,"position":1},"title":"High real rates ward off bears in EM FX markets + KSA plans equities splurge","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Bearish sentiment on emerging-market currencies is lifting as traders u-turn on assumptions that the asset class will be hit when the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates later this year, Bloomberg reports. The MSCI index of EM currencies hit a four-month high last week as rate hikes in developing economies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/12\/how-do-analysts-feel-about-emerging-markets-going-into-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":663884,"position":2},"title":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020? Emerging markets are set to outperform developed markets in 2020, predict 57 global investors, traders and strategists in a Bloomberg survey, with all assets \u2014 currencies, stocks, and bonds \u2014 having rallied this year after 2018\u2019s EM Zombie Apocalypse. Total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/2354.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596783,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/08\/emerging-markets-to-reap-the-benefits-of-a-fed-rate-cut-bloomberg-survey\/","url_meta":{"origin":663884,"position":3},"title":"Emerging markets to reap the benefits of a Fed rate cut -Bloomberg survey","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets to reap the benefits of a Fed rate cut -Bloomberg survey: Emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies will reap the benefits if the world\u2019s major central banks go ahead with expected rate cuts, according to a quarterly poll of 42 fund managers, traders, and strategists conducted by Bloomberg.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/2360.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558989,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/04\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-4-january-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":663884,"position":4},"title":"What the markets are doing on 4 January 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"We may see more caution in early 2021 valuations of emerging market stocks, bonds and currencies amid uneven covid-19 recovery rates in developing economies and suggestions of MSCI exuberance, Bloomberg reports. But with central bank stimulus and vaccines on the horizon, overall investor sentiment remains buoyant, say analysts. EM stocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562151,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/09\/planet-finance-rising-commodity-prices-are-good-news-for-em\/","url_meta":{"origin":663884,"position":5},"title":"Planet Finance: Rising commodity prices are good news for EM","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"SUPERCYCLE WATCH- Copper prices are at all-time highs off of optimism over an economic rebound that has fueled talk of a commodities supercycle amid soaring raw material prices, Bloomberg reports. The surge in prices is raising the prospect of imminent inflation \u2014 despite some analysts suggesting it will be transitory\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663884\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/663863"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663885"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663884"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=663884"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=663884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}