{"id":663712,"date":"2025-04-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/14\/majority-of-analysts-see-the-central-bank-cutting-rates-on-thursday-enterpriseam-poll\/"},"modified":"2025-04-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T00:00:00","slug":"majority-of-analysts-see-the-central-bank-cutting-rates-on-thursday-enterpriseam-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/14\/majority-of-analysts-see-the-central-bank-cutting-rates-on-thursday-enterpriseam-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Majority of analysts see the central bank cutting rates on Thursday -EnterpriseAM poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Most an<\/strong>a<\/strong>lysts see the MPC beginning its easing cycle this week: <\/strong>Almost all analysts surveyed by EnterpriseAM expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to cut interest rates when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on Thursday. <\/p>\n

The only real question: The size of the cut.<\/strong> Most of the analysts we spoke to predict the MPC to cut rates by at least 200 bps, while others gave a more conservative estimate of a 100 bp cut as the CBE continues to monitor inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

Where rates currently stand:<\/strong> The overnight deposit rate stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and disc. rate at 27.75%. Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike following a surprise monetary policy meeting in March 2024, which was accompanied by the float of the EGP and the approval of a larger loan package from the IMF.<\/p>\n

The central bank has left interest rates on hold since its March 2024 rate hike<\/strong> \u2014 leaving them untouched at seven consecutive meetings.<\/p>\n

Annual inflation ticked up slightly last month:<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation hit 13.6%<\/a> in March, marking an 0.8 percentage point increase from the 12.8% recorded in February, ending a four-month-long downward trend. \u201cThis came on the back of rises in bread and cereals, vegetables, and in particular fruits inflation which surged to a record high of 88.0% y-o-y,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote. EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha, economists Hany Abou El Fotouh and Mona Bedair, as well as HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir similarly highlighted fruit prices during Ramadan as a driver of the increase. On a monthly basis, inflation edged up by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.<\/p>\n

The easing cycle is expected to come despite the rise in inflation last month:<\/strong> \u201cDespite the pick-up in inflation reading for March, and given US President Donald Trump\u2019s decision to freeze the tariffs for 90 days (except for the Sino side), something that might give a breather for the markets, we still believe the CBE has the room to ease by up to 200 bps in its upcoming meeting on 17 April,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Esraa Ahmed tells us. <\/p>\n

This sentiment <\/strong>was echoed by HC Securities\u2019 Heba Monir<\/strong>, who said that Egypt\u2019s \u201ccarry trade is still attractive, and there is a noticeable improvement in the NFA position of the banking sector, allowing the smooth recent exit of some foreign investors from our treasuries market,\u201d she told EnterpriseAM, penciling in a 150 bps cut. \u201cMarch inflation uptick was very mild and should not prompt the authorities to delay the easing cycle anymore,\u201d Thndr Securities Brokerage\u2019s Amr El Alfy told us.<\/p>\n

The specific factors behind last month\u2019s inflation figures shouldn\u2019t be cause for concern <\/strong>for<\/strong> the MPC:<\/strong> Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston expects policymakers to \u201clook through the increase in inflation in March given it was driven by food prices.\u201d However, \u201cthe backdrop of global uncertainty created by the US-China trade war means that there\u2019s a risk officials move more slowly with monetary easing than we currently anticipate,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Real interest rates could push the MPC to cut rates:<\/strong> \u201cInflation should oscillate around the 13.5% y-o-y level in the near term. Real interest rates are close to 14%, providing scope<\/p>\n

for the interest rate easing cycle to commence,\u201d Oxford Economics wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. However, it could lead to a less significant cut, economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told EnterpriseAM, explaining that \u201cthe high real interest rate supports a limited cut without affecting the attractiveness of investment in local debt instruments.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fuel price hikes make matters more difficult for the committee:<\/strong> The recent increase in fuel prices<\/a> at the pumps by 11.8-14.8% \u201cis expected to lead to higher inflation rates in the coming months, which may push the central bank to adopt a more conservative approach and be cautious in cutting interest rates, even if it currently has some room to maneuver. The central bank may prefer to wait and assess the actual impact of the fuel price hike on inflation before taking any steps to ease monetary policy,\u201d Abou El Fotouh said. <\/p>\n

The impact of the fuel price hikes on the inflation trajectory could be minimal in the <\/strong>longer term:<\/strong> The decision to raise fuel prices will \u201cundoubtedly have a direct and indirect impact on raising the general inflation rate in the coming period by a range of 1.5-2%. This means the annual general inflation rate could potentially rise to around 15.5%.\u201d banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal told us. However, he added that he sees inflation continuing \u201con a downward trend provided that global and regional geopolitical conditions remain stable.\u201d <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, EFG Hermes\u2019 M<\/strong>ohamed Abou Basha told us that the fuel price hikes won\u2019t <\/strong>change the overall inflation trajectory. <\/strong>\u201cThe hike is almost identical to that in October, coming pretty much in line with our projection; hence, it confirms our view that headline inflation would end the year at 12-13%,\u201d he said, penciling in a hike of 200-300 bps.<\/p>\n

A decision to hold rates could signal uncertainty over the macro outlook:<\/strong> \u201cShould the CBE choose to delay action out of excessive caution, it could unintentionally raise questions about the perceived visibility of risks or confidence in the macro outlook. In the current environment, credibility is reinforced by clarity \u2014 not hesitation,\u201d Bedair said. <\/p>\n

However, some see the MPC once again holding rates: <\/strong>Economic analyst Dina El Wakkad told us that she sees the MPC moving to hold rates during its next meeting due to persisting inflationary pressures, the instability of the EGP, and the instability in the global economy, she said, adding that she doesn\u2019t rule out a 100 bp cut. London-based IBIS Consultancy economist Ali Metwally was similarly uncertain on the matter, telling us that \u201cfollowing the recent US decisions regarding tariffs and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, the uncertainty for the CBE has increased,\u201d adding that projections are 50\/50 over the possibility of a cut.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead:<\/strong> In the long term, credit ratings agency Fitch Solutions sees rates being \u201ccut to a level consistent with a real rate of near 4% by end-FY 26, underpinning a rapid fall in debt interest costs (given the average maturity of domestic debt is under two years),\u201d it said in a commentary<\/a> over the weekend. Meanwhile, Capital Economics sees \u201cfurther loosening over the rest of this year, taking the policy rate to 17.25% by year-end,\u201d Swanston wrote. Abou Basha gave a more conservative estimate, telling us that he sees the CBE cutting rates by a range of 5-6% percentage points over the course of 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For many analysts, the question isn\u2019t if \u2014 but by how 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/1944.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":663712,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). 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