{"id":663632,"date":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/13\/sp-trims-our-credit-outlook-to-stable-fitch-reaffirms-stable-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","slug":"sp-trims-our-credit-outlook-to-stable-fitch-reaffirms-stable-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/13\/sp-trims-our-credit-outlook-to-stable-fitch-reaffirms-stable-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P trims our credit outlook to stable, Fitch reaffirms stable outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

S&P trimmed Egypt\u2019s credit outlook to stable, bringing the rating agency's forecast in<\/strong> line with Fitch Ratings<\/strong>, which reaffirmed its stable outlook over the weekend. S&P Global Ratings revised Egypt\u2019s outlook to stable from positive and maintained its B-\/B rating \u2014 six notches into junk territory \u2014 for Egypt\u2019s long- and short-term local and foreign currency debt, it said in a disclosure<\/a>. The ratings agency pointed to high debt-servicing costs and a still-vulnerable external position amid heightened global market volatility<\/a> and geopolitical risk<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Fitch Ratings also maintained its stable outlook for the country\u2019s credit rating at B<\/strong> \u2014 five notches into junk territory \u2014citing \u201cweak public finances, including exceptionally high debt interest\/revenue, sizeable external financing needs and volatile commercial financing flows,\u201d it said in a commentary<\/a> over the weekend.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> S&P upgraded our outlook from stable to positive<\/a> in March 2024 shortly following the float of the EGP, citing \u201csignificant steps\u201d taken by authorities to address the country\u2019s macroeconomic imbalances as well as FX inflows. Afterwards, it maintained<\/a> the positive outlook and rating in October. Fitch ratings on the other hand upgraded our credit rating from \u2018B-\u2019 to \u2018B\u2019<\/a> with a stable outlook last November \u2014 for the first time since 2019 \u2014 citing FX inflows from the USD 35 bn<\/a> Ras El Hekma agreement, our expanded USD 8 bn<\/a> IMF program, and the EU\u2019s EUR 7.4 bn<\/a> aid package, alongside better structural reforms. <\/p>\n

What changed:<\/strong> S&P\u2019s revision reflects persistent fiscal and external deficits, elevated borrowing needs, and high debt-sevicing costs \u2014 government interest payments are projected to consume 58% of revenues in the fiscal year 2024-2025, declining only gradually to 45% by FY 2027-28 \u2014 all of which exacerbated by US President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariffs. Although keeping its assessment the same, Fitch echoed the same concern, projecting that \u201cgovernment debt interest\/revenue will peak near 61% in FY26, before falling to 38% in FY29.\u201d<\/p>\n

The concern isn\u2019t just fiscal:<\/strong> S&P flagged a potential pullback by foreign portfolio investors amid tightening global financial conditions, warning that \u201crisk-off positions\u201d could pressure the EGP bond market. <\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/strong>Debt markets saw outflows<\/a> last week after the scope of the Trump tariff war became clear \u2014 as some investors opted to lock in gains and move to cash or other less-risky assets in a time of uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Still, both agencies acknowledged progress on structural reforms: <\/strong>While the global financial context remains turbulent, S&P noted Egypt has pushed ahead with meaningful policy shifts throughout the previous year, saying \u201cthe foreign currency market has largely been driven by market forces, supporting competitiveness and an improvement in economic growth.\u201d Fitch echoed this sentiment, stating that \u201cgreater exchange rate flexibility has been maintained since the March 2024 depreciation of the official rate, with no re-emergence of FX backlogs or a significant differential with the parallel market rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

The two were in agreement that the 10% US tariff on Egyptian exports is unlikely to <\/strong>cause major disruption:<\/strong> \u201cEgypt\u2019s goods export exposure to the US is relatively low,\u201d S&P said, with exports making up \u201cless than 6% of goods exports and less than 0.5% of GDP\u201d in 2023. Similarly, Fitch pointed out that the country \u201chas relatively limited direct exposure to US tariffs and cuts in US economic aid.\u201d The new tariff could affect a narrow band of Egypt\u2019s exports \u2014 including textiles, carpets, iron and steel, vegetables, and glass \u2014 but is expected to have a limited macroeconomic impact.<\/p>\n

Some think we could even stand to gain from it: <\/strong>Sources we spoke to believe the tariffs could present an unexpected chance for Egypt\u2019s industrial base, particularly in manufacturing, as firms seek to sidestep higher duties by relocating operations to lower-tariff countries like Egypt. We have more on this in last week\u2019s Inside Industry, which you can check out here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The bigger concern is global contagion:<\/strong> \u201cSecondary effects of tariff barriers on other countries globally, alongside market volatility, will likely have a downward impact on global financing conditions, as well as those in emerging markets like Egypt,\u201d S&P warned. A dip in global energy prices should provide some relief though, given Egypt\u2019s position as a net energy importer.<\/p>\n

An upgrade could still be in the cards:<\/strong> S&P said it could raise Egypt\u2019s rating if \u201cnet government or external debt positions improve faster than we currently expect,\u201d naming higher FDI, state asset sales, and robust growth as some of the ways the Madbouly government could improve its debt position. Fitch also said it could upgrade our rating if there is \u201cfurther reduction in external vulnerabilities\u201d and \u201clower debt issuance costs and fiscal consolidation.\u201d<\/p>\n

A downgrade is also very much possible if reform momentum slips:<\/strong> Both agencies warned that any sign the government is backtracking on macroeconomic reforms \u2014 especially exchange rate flexibility \u2014 or allowing foreign currency shortages to re-emerge could trigger a negative rating action. S&P also flagged debt distress as a risk, noting a downgrade could happen \u201cif the elevated interest costs prompt the government to undertake a debt exchange that we consider to be distressed.\u201d Meanwhile, Fitch flagged \u201cfurther escalation of regional conflict\u2026 with a larger negative spill-over impact on tourism, Suez Canal receipts, investor sentiment,\u201d as potential negative triggers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S&P also affirmed its B-\/B rating for Egypt\u2019s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit, inline with Fitch Ratings reaffirmed B stable outlook<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663633,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,905,2234,1631],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-sp-global-ratings","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a1322082-e719-4661-a043-49be4654c164","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1034.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"S&P trims Egypt\u2019s credit outlook to stable, Fitch reaffirms stable outlook","related_issue":[663622],"teaser":"S&P also affirmed its B-\/B rating for Egypt\u2019s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit, inline with Fitch Ratings reaffirmed B stable outlook","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.720ffd28-692e-49e7-822a-4921963df322.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nS&P trims our credit outlook to stable, Fitch reaffirms stable outlook - 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The rating is supported by Egypt\u2019s \u201crecent track record of fiscal and economic reforms,\u201d coupled with its large economy, which has remained stable and resilient through the global health crisis, as \u201ccontinued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574688,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/17\/fitch-affirms-nbe-credit-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":663632,"position":2},"title":"Fitch affirms NBE credit rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default Rating for the National Bank of Egypt at 'B+' with a stable outlook, it said on Wednesday. The ratings agency also removed it from its rating watch negative list, reflecting its view of diminishing near-term risks to its credit profile, especially its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking + Finance"","block_context":{"text":"Banking + Finance","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/banking-finance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/26\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":663632,"position":3},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The agency said that Egypt\u2019s rating affirmation is supported by \u201ca recent track record of economic and fiscal reforms, and improvements to macroeconomic stability and external finances.\u201d On the flipside, Egypt\u2019s \u201cstill large fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573294,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/28\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-rating-at-b-outlook-stable\/","url_meta":{"origin":663632,"position":4},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer rating at B+; outlook stable","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed yesterday Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The ratings agency said that Egypt\u2019s \u201crecent track record of fiscal and economic reforms, policy commitment to furthering the reform program and ready availability of fiscal and external financing in the face of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/224.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564979,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/fitch-gives-long-term-fx-debt-outlook-a-%f0%9f%91%8d\/","url_meta":{"origin":663632,"position":5},"title":"Fitch gives long-term FX debt outlook a ?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The outlook is supported by the country\u2019s track record of fiscal and economic reforms, which authorities continued to enact, and a large economy, \u201cwhich has demonstrated stability and resilience through the global health crisis,\u201d the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/440.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663632\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/663622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663632"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=663632"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=663632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}