{"id":663630,"date":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/13\/inflation-picks-up-in-march-snapping-months-long-downward-trend\/"},"modified":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-picks-up-in-march-snapping-months-long-downward-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/13\/inflation-picks-up-in-march-snapping-months-long-downward-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation picks up in March, snapping months-long downward trend"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual he<\/strong>a<\/strong>dline urban inflation reversed it<\/strong>s downward trajectory to hit <\/strong>13.6% in March<\/strong>, marking an 0.8 percentage point increase from the 12.8% recorded in February<\/a>, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. This figure ends a four month-long downward trend. On a monthly basis, inflation edged up by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.<\/p>\n

Food and beverage price inflation drove the trend<\/strong>, with segment \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 rising 2.9 percentage points to 6.6% in March. \u201cThis came on the back of rises in bread and cereals, vegetables, and in particular fruits inflation which surged to a record high of 88.0% y-o-y,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote<\/a>. Economist Hany Abou El Fotouh, economist Mona Bedair, and HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir similarly highlighted fruit prices during Ramadan as a driver of the increase in comments to EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

While headline inflation was up, annual core inflation fell in March<\/strong>, with the reading \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 dropping 0.8 percentage points from the month before to 9.4% y-o-y, according to data<\/a> from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation stood at 0.9%, down from 1.6% the month before.<\/p>\n

The fall in core inflation gives \u201chope that these pressures are temporary<\/strong>,\u201d Abou El Fotouh told us. Bedair also highlighted the importance of the dip in core inflation, telling us that the core inflation dipping below 10% for the first time since February 2022 is \u201ca clear signal that underlying pressures are moderating.\u201d<\/p>\n

Most analysts told us that they expect inflation to continue rising modestly into April<\/strong>, including Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed, who pencilled a provisional 14.5% headline rate for the month, while others were yet to settle on a number they were willing to share. <\/p>\n

Zooming out, inflation still seems to be on a broadly downward trajectory<\/strong>, with upcoming mild inflationary pressures ahead \u2014 be it fuel price hikes or related to currency exchange depreciation \u2014 not able to \u201covershadow the broader trend of easing domestic inflation,\u201d Bedair said. \u201cHowever, global fluctuations remain a gateway to inflationary risks and currency fluctuations,\u201d Ahmed and other analysts warned.<\/p>\n

So, what does this mean for interest rates? <\/strong>With the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meeting to decide interest rates set to take place this week, economists, analysts and members of the business community are trying to get a read on how March\u2019s inflation data could influence their decision. Analysts and economists we\u2019ve spoken to so far still mostly see the bank cutting \u2014 albeit with a more conservative approach as it assesses the mild uptick in inflation, the effect of recently announced fuel price hikes, and what Trump\u2019s unpredictable trade war may have in store for Egypt. We\u2019ll have more insights from analysts and economists later in the week in our interest rate poll \u2014 watch this space.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Some corners of the global press also picked up the story:<\/strong> Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual headline urban inflation fell 0.8 percentage points from the month before<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"887b908d-b7c1-4275-8cae-5a88ee5c4cc7","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/663.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation picks up in March to 13.6%, snapping months-long downward trend","related_issue":[663622],"teaser":"Annual headline urban inflation fell 0.8 percentage points from the month before","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.9604aafa-3a37-4b59-92fc-ef17cbe09731.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation picks up in March, snapping months-long downward trend - 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On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542436,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/12\/11\/inflation-inches-down-in-november-defying-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":663630,"position":2},"title":"Inflation inches down in November, defying expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 December 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation fell to 12.3% in November","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570695,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/12\/egypts-inflation-dips-slightly-in-march-to-5-1\/","url_meta":{"origin":663630,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation dips slightly in March to 5.1%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation dips slightly in March to 5.1%: Annual urban inflation cooled to 5.1% in March from 5.3% in February, according to Capmas data out on Thursday. Price growth increased 0.6% on a monthly basis compared to 0.8% during the same month last year, and zero in February. This is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":660382,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/11\/egypts-inflation-slowdown-loses-some-momentum-in-january\/","url_meta":{"origin":663630,"position":4},"title":"Egypt's inflation slowdown loses some momentum in January","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation dropped slightly to 24% in January","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":671665,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/09\/11\/inflation-eases-for-third-straight-month-to-12-0-in-august-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":663630,"position":5},"title":"Inflation eases for third straight month to 12.0% in August","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation is at its lowest since March 2022","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/634.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663630\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/663622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663630"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=663630"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=663630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}