{"id":663515,"date":"2025-04-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/10\/egx30-loses-more-than-50-ytd-gains-amid-trade-war-jitters\/"},"modified":"2025-04-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T00:00:00","slug":"egx30-loses-more-than-50-ytd-gains-amid-trade-war-jitters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/10\/egx30-loses-more-than-50-ytd-gains-amid-trade-war-jitters\/","title":{"rendered":"EGX30 loses more than 50% YTD gains amid trade war jitters"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning<\/strong>, wonderful people, and welcome to another packed issue of EnterpriseAM Egypt.<\/strong> We here at EnterpriseAM World Headquarters have put our heads together and humbly offer a handful of thoughts in the hope that they might help you clear your heads before we slide into the weekend. The rundown:<\/p>\n

That feeling you\u2019ve got? The one perhaps best described as \u201cwhiplash\u201d? It\u2019s the new <\/strong>normal <\/strong>\u2014 maybe for the next few months, perhaps for the coming 3.7 years of the Trump administration. <\/p>\n

Madbouly summed it up as \u201ca comprehensive trade and economic war, with every<\/strong> possible tool being deployed<\/strong>\u201d in his weekly presser yesterday evening (watch, runtime: 1:08:42<\/a>). \u201cWe are witnessing a new era. The norms we\u2019ve grown up with are being dismantled and replaced with new mechanisms \u2014 breaking up of alliances, and shifting toward bilateral and transactional relationships focused on maximizing national gains,\u201d the prime minister explained.<\/p>\n

Things are so volatile that even watching the VIX will give you motion sickness. <\/strong>The VIX, or the so-called \u201cfear index\u201d that tracks expected 30-day volatility in the S&P 500, broke north of 52 earlier this week. It stayed there through much of yesterday before plunging to the 33 level by the close of trading in New York as traders welcomed Trump\u2019s social media post that most countries (with the exception of China) would face only a new 10% baseline tariff for the next 90 days<\/strong>. Most other \u201creciprocal tariffs\u201d on most countries are now on pause.<\/p>\n

In context: <\/strong>The last time the VIX was this high was during covid, when it hit 65. It was at 70 in October 2018 (at the height of the global financial crisis) and 42 during the dotcom meltdown. <\/p>\n

So, if volatility is the new normal, how should we feel about business, markets, and the <\/strong>EGP <\/strong>in the days and weeks ahead? Here are some thoughts from Dubai, where we\u2019ve spent the week speaking with business leaders from Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia as well as global fund and portfolio managers. <\/p>\n

#1- Get comfortable with being uncomfortable. <\/strong>Volatility could be on the menu for years to come (for at least the duration of the Trump administration). Periods of calm punctuated by a punch to the head could be the new normal. Then again, ours is an adaptable specie: As our friend Mostafa Gad, the global head of IB at EFG Hermes, put it earlier this week, \u201cMarkets adapt faster today than they did in the 1980s or 1990s \u2014 they have a way of equilibrating and accepting change or adapting to crisis really quickly. What would have once taken 18 months to pass through now takes weeks.\u201d <\/p>\n

None of us in this part of the world like volatility. <\/strong>In the GCC, we\u2019re accustomed to pegged exchange rates and (for the most part) slow-but-steady policy formulation. In Egypt, we think of every 1 piaster change in the USD exchange rate as a harbinger of disaster. We need to adapt: Volatility in the USD:EGP exchange rate is a sign the CBE\u2019s FX policy is operating as intended. And a more nimble approach to policymaking in the Gulf will be the order of the day. <\/p>\n

#2- From tech to airlines and beyond, there\u2019s a healthy pipeline of IPOs ready for <\/strong>execution in Saudi and the UAE. <\/strong>Expect most to take a \u201cwait and see\u201d attitude for the coming week or 10 days. If the 90-day pause in tariffs helps stabilize global equities markets, many bankers will want to pull the trigger on transactions before the 1H offering window closes. The (so-far) worst-case scenario: It takes a few months more for markets to accept the new normal. In that case, we\u2019re looking at a really busy fall for new offerings.<\/p>\n

#3- Share-based M&A is very much on the table and it might be a good time for private <\/strong>equity players to close transactions. <\/strong>Some PE players think valuations have been stubbornly high for a while, and the combination of lower comparables after the recent market slump and higher volatility could push serious buyers and sellers to transact *now*. The risk: Some sellers will walk away from prices they think are just too low. Expect share-based M&A to close with fewer hiccups than anything involving the commitment of cash. The wisdom of Warren Buffett\u2019s move to cash earlier this year is now clear to all. <\/strong><\/p>\n

#4- Appetite for Egypt may be coming back. <\/strong>The central bank proved this week to both foreign investors and the domestic business community that the float of the EGP was real. Egyptian companies at the One on One reported more demand for meetings yesterday than expected. Investors looking to buy into Egyptian debt on Tuesday and Wednesday found it harder than usual to build a position because of rising demand. <\/p>\n

#5- The UAE looks better than ever. <\/strong>Businesses in the UAE have quietly trimmed staff and other expenses in recent weeks to optimize their cost base in a year in which they expect volatility. But the economy\u2019s fundamentals are strong and have been bolstered by regulatory reforms brought in post-covid. That real estate correction we\u2019ve been expecting for two years now? Yeah, there's a lot of new inventory coming onto the market this fall, but we feel a little like we\u2019ve been waiting for Godot on that front\u2026<\/p>\n

#6- Everyone will be watching the price of oil<\/strong> \u2014 the Saudis and Emiratis from a state revenues perspective, the Egyptians from the expenses side of the ledger. The emerging consensus is that even if Trump cools it on tariffs, we\u2019re looking at a slowdown in trade and a bit less demand for oil than forecast at the start of 2025. Oil in the 40s? Probably not. But something in the 50s? Possible \u2014 and with it, questions about financing the deficit and the pace of gigaprojects in KSA in particular. <\/p>\n

#7- It\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess what the Central Bank of Egypt will do next week. <\/strong>On the face of it, the CBE has room to cut. And that would be the ballsy position to take amid all that\u2019s happening now. But with this much uncertainty in the wind, we\u2019ve never been less certain of what the MPC might decide heading into a meeting. The bank will next meet a week from today. <\/p>\n

#8- Diversification of trade ties is going to be key for Mideast governments. <\/strong>From Egypt to the UAE and Saudi, all of us would have faced a 10% rate at the same time as others faced much sharper US tariffs, signalling we\u2019re in good stead with The Donald. Regardless of what happens with tariffs 90 days from now, deeper integration with a wider variety of trading partners will be the order of the day. Egypt\u2019s vast network of interlocking trade agreements (the Gulf, the EU, COMESA, the QIZ with the US, etc) will stand it in particularly good stead provided it can continue to offer a floating FX regime and improve the business climate. Madbouly also pressed on this point, stressing the need for deeper integration with a wider pool of trade partners and prioritizing the security of strategic goods and energy supplies.<\/p>\n

THE WILDCARD- The Donald is inbound to the Gulf in about a month\u2019s time. <\/strong>US Energy Secretary Christopher Wright is on a nearly two-week visit to our corner of the world, laying the groundwork for Trump to land in the UAE, Saudi, and Qatar some time in mid-May. (Dates for the visit, which hasn\u2019t been confirmed, are still uncertain.)<\/p>\n

SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT-<\/p>\n

Egypt has not yet inked a five-year agreement with Germany to lease an LNG <\/strong>regasification <\/strong>vessel<\/strong>, contrary to our report<\/a> of yesterday. A source with first-hand knowledge of the transaction now tells us that while talks are very much still ongoing, they are yet to conclude. Other parties are in talks to lease the same vessel, we\u2019re told. We\u2019ll be keeping our eye on the story in the weeks to come and will report back with more.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>Egypt is set to resume LNG imports as early as this month<\/a> to ensure we have the feedstock we need to generate electricity during peak summertime demand. <\/p>\n

\n

EGX WATCH-<\/p>\n

<\/a> The EGX<\/strong>30 has now shed more than 50% of its YTD gains, closing down 1.86% at <\/strong>yesterday\u2019s close. <\/strong>The market is now up just 1.1% since the start of the year thanks to this week\u2019s volatility in the wake of the Trump tariffs. <\/p>\n

Turnover was high yesterday<\/strong> at nearly 19% above the trailing 90-day average. Some EGP 4.3 bn worth of shares changed hands. Domestic investors were the sole net buyers in the market. <\/p>\n

\n

HAPPENING TODAY- <\/p>\n

<\/a> It's inflation day:<\/strong> We\u2019ll find out whether inflation continued to cool in March when state statistics agency Capmas releases its latest inflation data later today. Annual urban inflation eased significantly in February<\/a>, falling to 12.8% \u2014 a two-year low \u2014 after dropping 11.2 percentage points thanks to a favorable base effect and easing food prices. But with the impact of Ramadan and other potential pressures in play, it\u2019s not clear whether March brought more of the same.<\/p>\n

Our latest poll found analysts split:<\/strong> Half of the ten respondents expect annual inflation to dip slightly \u2014 by as much as 0.4 percentage points<\/a> \u2014 while the other half anticipate a modest uptick, with some forecasting a rebound to as high as 18%. The median forecast sees inflation remaining unchanged at 12.8%. <\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

Global investors are getting whiplash after US President Donald Trump\u2019s decision<\/strong> to freeze reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days triggered a historic market rally<\/strong>, helping Wall Street stocks recover tns of USDs in losses. <\/p>\n

<\/a> Trump paused (<\/strong>most of) his reciprocal<\/strong> tariffs on <\/strong>(most)<\/strong> countries and hiked China\u2019s tariff to 125%<\/strong>, up from 104%, after Beijing had pushed ahead with a retaliatory tariff of 84% on US goods. The blanket 10% tariff on most countries, which came in effect over the weekend, still applies, as do steel and aluminum and automaker levies.<\/strong> The reprieve came in response to over 75 countries reaching out for negotiations with the US, according to Trump. <\/p>\n

The Nasdaq notched its best day in 24 years, while the S&P 500 soared nearly 10%. <\/strong>Trump had taken to Truth earlier in the day to say it\u2019s \u201cA GREAT TIME TO BUY,\u201d in reference to the stock market. US Treasuries also gained more than 4% as traders pared expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, after a pullback had sent longer-term yields soaring. <\/p>\n

Oil prices also gained 4%<\/strong>, climbing from a four-year low earlier, with Brent futures up to USD 65.48 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures up nearly 5% at USD 62.35. (Reuters<\/a>) <\/p>\n

The about-turn and the market rally are getting coverage everywhere:<\/strong> Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> | Financial Times<\/a> | WSJ<\/a> | CNBC<\/a> <\/p>\n

\n

PSA-<\/p>\n

WEATHER- It\u2019s going to be an unusually cool and cloudy day in Cairo today<\/strong>, with a high of 23\u00b0C, a low of 13\u00b0C \u2014 and even the chance of light rain, according to our favorite weather app.<\/p>\n

The unseasonal weather has also spread to Alexandria<\/strong>, with our friends on the coast in store for a high of 19\u00b0C, a low of 12\u00b0C, and a chance of light rain.<\/p>\n

And over the weekend, <\/strong>expect to see the cool weather sticking around in the capital and in Alexandria, before picking back up starting Sunday.<\/p>\n

\n
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We\u2019re taking this as a chance to enroll in remedial math classes. We\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598116,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/what-were-tracking-on-15-may-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":663515,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 15 May 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends \u2014 take heart, it is nearly the weekend. Still, we have plenty of interesting news for you this morning, so there\u2019s that. Investors are still getting their collective head around the odds (and implications) of a protracted US-China trade war, the talking heads tell us. Wall Street\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598206,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/19\/what-were-tracking-on-19-may-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":663515,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 19 May 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Will the EGP break the psychologically important 17.00 barrier this week? The EGP continued to appreciate against the USD last week, reaching 17.0983 on Thursday from 17.1778 on Sunday, according to central bank data. The CBE\u2019s buying price, meanwhile, slipped below EGP 17 on Wednesday. Analysts have suggested the EGP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572181,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/15\/egypts-airports-reopening-tops-talking-heads-agendas\/","url_meta":{"origin":663515,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s airports reopening tops talking heads\u2019 agendas","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The reopening of Egypt\u2019s airports to regularly scheduled international commercial flights next month stole the spotlight on last night\u2019s talk shows. Tourism and Antiquities Minister Khaled El Enany and Civil Aviation Minister Mohamed Manar both blanketed the airwaves to fill in the nation\u2019s talking heads on the details of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571433,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/12\/last-nights-talk-shows-for-12-may-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":663515,"position":5},"title":"Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows for 12 May 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"It was a quiet night on the airwaves with only Lamees El Hadidi being of note as the other talking heads marinated in konafa during their Ramadan hiatus. We note Lamees\u2019 segments about the odds of a pre-Ramadan lockdown and her interview with the Finance Ministry\u2019s Ahmed Kouchouk in What\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663515\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/663513"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663515"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=663515"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=663515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}