{"id":663448,"date":"2025-04-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/09\/govt-lowers-its-forecast-for-oil-prices-in-fy-2025-26-amid-global-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2025-04-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T00:00:00","slug":"govt-lowers-its-forecast-for-oil-prices-in-fy-2025-26-amid-global-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/09\/govt-lowers-its-forecast-for-oil-prices-in-fy-2025-26-amid-global-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Gov\u2019t lowers its forecast for oil prices in FY 2025-26 amid global uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Finance Ministry now <\/strong>sees<\/strong> Brent crude prices averaging USD 77 per barrel from <\/strong>July 2025 through June 2026<\/strong>, down from its previous forecast of USD 82 a barrel in the FY 2024-25 budget, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The estimated price could be higher than actual oil price levels during the year, our source suggested, saying that indicators are pointing towards a global dip in oil prices at large. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a tough week for oil in the markets this week<\/strong>, most recently with Brent crude falling 19.0% this month already, with the all-important commodity now trading at USD 62.82 a barrel. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate has faced an even tougher month, now down 19.0% in just nine days to sit at USD 57.66 a barrel . The two are currently trading at their lowest levels since early 2021 \u2014 a far cry from the USD 100 a barrel forecasts that popped up in the international business press throughout 2024.<\/p>\n

The government is looking to hedge against future uncertainties by renewing its annual <\/strong>hedging contracts with investment banks<\/strong>, with current global conditions as among the most difficult to date, our source added. The state has also been deploying a bit more hard currency than usual, looking to take advantage of the sharp decline in global commodity prices \u2014 including oil \u2014 by securing strategic contracts, a government source told<\/a> EnterpriseAM earlier this week.<\/p>\n

But on the plus side, l<\/strong>ower global o<\/strong>il prices<\/strong> will benefit <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s external balances given its <\/strong>position as a net im<\/strong>porter <\/strong>in recent months and until the Zohr gas field\u2019s production levels recover, EFG Hermes\u2019 Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us on the sidelines of EFG Hermes\u2019 annual One on One in Dubai.<\/p>\n

The current decline in prices and renewed tariff-induced inflation concerns could also <\/strong>prompt the government to consider temporarily postponing fuel<\/strong> price hikes<\/strong> \u2014 especially as the average selling price inches closer to the break-even point of USD 57 a barrel without government subsidies, a source from the oil sector told EnterpriseAM. The move would give the government the flexibility to maintain current prices temporarily until the global outlook becomes clearer, while still reducing the amount it pays out in subsidies. Alternatively, the government could move to raise prices at a slower pace than previously planned, which would help support the state\u2019s economic and social efforts, the source added.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t expect the price of gas to fall<\/strong>, economist Mona Bedair told EnterpriseAM. She explained that \u201ceven with favorable oil market dynamics, the catch-up mechanism, the drive toward cost recovery, and the need to fund diesel subsidies all point to a likely increase in retail fuel prices \u2014 not a reduction.\u201d Doing this \u201chelps the government balance between fiscal responsibility and social protection, while maintaining credibility with its IMF reform commitments,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The government\u2019s estimated price could be higher than actual oil price levels during the year, our source suggested<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7413],"tags":[279,93,72,91],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-budget-watch","tag-budget-watch","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-oil-and-gas","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"941a5e5b-3c89-45e6-9173-76afe0dbe377","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/2143.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egyptian government lowers its forecast for oil prices in FY 2025-26 amid global uncertainty","related_issue":[663438],"teaser":"The government\u2019s estimated price could be higher than actual oil price levels during the year, our source suggested","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.06039948-1bce-4f81-9823-9a177fb80d50.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGov\u2019t lowers its forecast for oil prices in FY 2025-26 amid global uncertainty - 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The lender expects the economy to grow at a 3.1% clip this year,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WAR WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"WAR WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/war-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/82.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546226,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/09\/oil-wheat-spend-to-rise-fy-2022-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":663448,"position":2},"title":"Oil + wheat spend to rise FY 2022-2023","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Finance Ministry will set oil prices at USD 80 a barrel in the FY 2022-2023 budget, according to a document seen by Bloomberg Asharq, coming in at the bottom range of the USD 80-85 a barrel range signaled by Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk last month.This is significantly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "BUDGET WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"BUDGET WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/budget-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/100.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":605643,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/04\/a-new-oil-hedge\/","url_meta":{"origin":663448,"position":3},"title":"A new oil hedge","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The price of Brent has risen more than 20% so far this fiscal year on tightening supply","rel":"","context":"In "Energy"","block_context":{"text":"Energy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/energy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/9\/101.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602626,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/04\/02\/govt-revises-oil-price-forecast-to-usd-70-per-barrel-in-2019-20-budget-draft\/","url_meta":{"origin":663448,"position":4},"title":"Gov\u2019t revises oil price forecast to USD 70 per barrel in 2019-20 budget draft","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The government has revised downwards its oil price forecast for FY2019-20 to USD 70 per barrel, down from USD 74 per barrel, according to a Finance Ministry document (pdf) published earlier this week. 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