{"id":663384,"date":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/08\/banks-brace-for-recession-expect-earlier-fed-cuts-as-tariffs-continue-to-shock-markets\/"},"modified":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","slug":"banks-brace-for-recession-expect-earlier-fed-cuts-as-tariffs-continue-to-shock-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/08\/banks-brace-for-recession-expect-earlier-fed-cuts-as-tariffs-continue-to-shock-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession in the US economy to <\/strong>45%<\/strong>, up from the 35% it penciled in just last week, Reuters<\/a> reports. The second adjustment came after the sharper-than-expected tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump<\/a> triggered a major sell-off in global markets.<\/p>\n

The outlook is turning bearish across the board<\/strong>: Other major investment banks have also revised their recession forecasts in the wake of the tariff-induced market turmoil, the newswire<\/a> reported separately. JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of a US recession by year-end. HSBC isn\u2019t far behind, putting the odds at 40%, while S&P Global pegs the probability at 30-35%.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had <\/strong>added to the panic<\/a><\/strong> earlier, labeling Trump\u2019s tariffs as \u201clarger than expected\u201d and warning it could put the brakes on growth. He also flagged a \u201chighly uncertain outlook,\u201d noting the risk of both higher unemployment and price pressures.<\/p>\n

Rate cuts to come sooner? <\/strong>Goldman now expects the Fed\u2019s three interest rate cuts \u2014 by 25 basis points each \u2014 to start in June, revised from July. JPMorgan seconds the notion, while expecting the benchmark rate to fall to 3% by January of the next year.<\/p>\n

T<\/strong>raders went all in on rate cuts in yesterday\u2019s session<\/strong>, expecting the Fed to cut rates by an average of 116 basis points this year over four of the five remaining meetings, Reuters reported, citing data compiled by LSEG. The wager on \u201cemergency\u201d meetings \u2014 where rates are going to be cut further \u2014 remains far-fetched for now, with the unusual measures last used during the pandemic. Still, it remains to be seen how far the impact of the trade war on inflation will be, as stagflation is currently the best-case scenario for the US economy, Bill Dudley, former New York Fed president, told Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are opening higher today<\/strong>, recouping some of yesterday\u2019s steep losses. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is up 6.2%, while Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is inching up 2.2%, and Korea\u2019s Kospi is up 1.6%. Wall Street futures also indicate a slight recovery on market open.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,454<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.47<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,194<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: -7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8949<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.6% (YTD: -5.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4799<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.1% (YTD: -7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5062<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -13.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7702<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.4% (YTD: -5.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4656<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.6% (YTD: -4.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 64.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2973.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 79,239.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% (YTD: -15.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.6% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.7 bn (6.4% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 2.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+4.5%), Rameda (+3.6%), and Ibnsina Pharma (+2.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Juhayna (-3.8%), TMG Holding (-3.2%) and Fawry (-2.9%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Edita F<\/strong>ood Industries will distribute a dividend of EGP 1.14 per share for its 2024 <\/strong>earnings<\/strong>, after its general assembly approved the move, according to a disclosure to the EGX (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Traders went all in on rate cuts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663385,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,260,490,182,349,262,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-hsbc","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-jpmorgan","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"596e370f-7dc0-406b-bdab-58cae1c22e4e","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/251.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Banks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets","related_issue":[663362],"teaser":"Traders went all in on rate cuts","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.34e65bdb-ac26-4588-b987-8be991135d56.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nBanks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets - 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