{"id":663364,"date":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/08\/its-day-two-of-the-efg-hermes-one-on-one-in-dubai\/"},"modified":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","slug":"its-day-two-of-the-efg-hermes-one-on-one-in-dubai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/08\/its-day-two-of-the-efg-hermes-one-on-one-in-dubai\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s day two of the EFG Hermes One on One in Dubai"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good<\/strong> m<\/strong>orning, <\/strong>wonderful people. We have an absolutely packed issue for you this <\/strong>morning<\/strong> in which the big story remains the impact on the EGP of the Trump administration\u2019s tariff war. <\/p>\n

The message from the Central Bank of Egypt is clear: The floating FX regime is here to <\/strong>stay<\/strong> and we won\u2019t be burning reserves to defend the EGP. CBE Deputy Governor Ramy Aboul Naga made that clear here in Dubai in on-stage remarks to an audience of hundreds of global fund and portfolio managers at the EFG Hermes One on One. <\/p>\n

A floating currency is a \u201cshock absorber\u201d for the economy<\/strong>, Aboul Naga correctly said \u2014 one that prevents the buildup of imbalances of the type that eventually lead to crash devaluations.<\/p>\n

The overall sentiment here among fund and portfolio managers, analysts, and <\/strong>corporates: <\/strong>What we\u2019re seeing now with the EGP is natural and \u2014 yes \u2014 healthy. We should be worried when the dynamics *don\u2019t* make sense. Had the EGP not weakened in response to what\u2019s going on, it would have been a sign we were heading back to the \u201cbad old days\u201d before last year\u2019s devaluation.<\/p>\n

What should we expect next? <\/strong>Sentiment here at the One on One is that we\u2019re looking at a period of adjustment, after which 10% tariffs (like those Egypt, the UAE, Saudi, and other major Mideast economies now face) are the \u201cnew 0%.\u201d Businesses adapt, and we all move on. <\/p>\n

How long will that adjustment period last? <\/strong>That\u2019s the wildcard. In a dozen conversations yesterday, the answers ranged from \u201ca couple of weeks, at least\u201d to \u201cup to six months.\u201d Regional and global markets recover from crises (the global financial crisis, Covid-19, the invasion of Ukraine) recover and move on much, much faster than they did a generation ago.<\/p>\n

And nobody is talking about \u201clost IPOs\u201d just yet. <\/strong>There\u2019s optimism that anything postponed from the spring window will be back on deck for execution this fall.<\/p>\n

How bad is all of this for Egypt? Probably not at all. <\/strong>Two things factor into that thinking, folks here say:<\/p>\n