{"id":663297,"date":"2025-04-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/07\/analysts-split-on-whether-inflation-slowdown-will-continue-into-march-enterpriseam-poll\/"},"modified":"2025-04-07T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T00:00:00","slug":"analysts-split-on-whether-inflation-slowdown-will-continue-into-march-enterpriseam-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/07\/analysts-split-on-whether-inflation-slowdown-will-continue-into-march-enterpriseam-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts split on whether inflation slowdown will continue into March -EnterpriseAM poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deflation nation? Not everyone is so sure. <\/strong>Ten analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM on whether soon-to-be-released inflation data March will show annual urban inflation slowing or accelerating are split. While half of the respondents saw inflation inching down by as much as 0.4 percentage points from 12.8% in February, the other half saw inflation picking up slightly or even up to 18%. The median forecast of the ten analysts we polled saw staying put at 12.8%.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s monetary policy committee meets on 17 April <\/strong>to review interest rates. Two factors that will weigh heavily in their decision on whether to cut or not: the global macro environment (roiled by Trump turmoil) and domestic inflation.<\/p>\n

Inflation fell in each of the last four months<\/strong> and most recently plunged 11.2<\/a>percentage points in February<\/a> to reach 12.8%. The slowdown marked the nation\u2019s lowest inflation reading since March 2022<\/a>, which most attributed to a favorable base year effect. On a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%.<\/p>\n

The more optimistic of the bunch pointed to an expected stabilization of food and <\/strong>beverage prices<\/strong>, including Economist Mona Bedair, who told EnterpriseAM that they expect inflation to come in at 12.4% as food and beverage price stabilization helps offset a \u201cpossible increase in the prices of other non-food baskets including the prices of clothing and restaurants.\u201d This was seconded by HC Securities\u2019 Heba Monir, who also predicted inflation coming in at 12.4% due to the \u201crelative stability in most commodities prices.\u201d <\/p>\n

However, our disinflationary path ahead is not set in stone<\/strong>, some of the analysts emphasized in comments to us. Economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us that despite his assessment that the \u201cgradual decline in global prices, exchange rate stability, and controlled government spending\u201d would slow inflation, any new subsidy cuts and energy price hikes \u201ccould impact the inflation trajectory and potentially slow the targeted decline.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some think that seasonal factors associated with the holy month of Ramadan could <\/strong>see the headline figure inch up<\/strong>, with added inflationary pressures partially offsetting the decline in price inflation of some seasonal vegetables, CI Capital\u2019s Sara Saada told us. <\/p>\n

At the higher end of the spectrum was banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal, who <\/strong>penciled in inflation coming in at 16-18% for March and April<\/strong>, provided that economic and geopolitical conditions remain unchanged, he told EnterpriseAM. This rate would be the \"preferred rate for countries with economic and monetary conditions similar to ours when beginning the transition from monetary tightening to monetary easing,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Many of the analysts said the inflation reading could prompt the central bank to begin its<\/strong> monetary easing cycle at the next MPC meeting<\/strong>, as the significant drop in inflation in February and the expected stability of March\u2019s reading are likely to give the CBE the confidence to begin cutting rates. \u201cThe outlook is for a gradual rate cut, considering that the U.S. has kept rates steady multiple times recently,\u201d one source told us.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> The MPC decided<\/a> to keep interest rates unchanged when it held its first meeting of the year in February, in what was expected by some to be the beginning of its long-awaited monetary easing cycle. The MPC deemed that \u201cthe current policy rates are appropriate to maintain a sufficiently tight monetary stance. This will ensure the realization of the projected disinflation path, and firmly anchor inflation expectations. Accordingly, the Committee\u2019s decisions regarding the appropriate time for beginning the accommodative cycle will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis.\u201d<\/p>\n

When do we get March\u2019s inflation figures?<\/strong> State statistics agency Capmas is expected to release March\u2019s inflation data on Thursday, 10 April.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Half of the respondents saw inflation inching down by up to 0.4 percentage points<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":663298,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-663297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"94b524da-f9e2-43e7-8db0-65b46f8f3060","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/806.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Analysts split on whether inflation slowdown will continue into March -EnterpriseAM poll","related_issue":[663284],"teaser":"Half of the respondents saw inflation inching down by up to 0.4 percentage points","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.edb1f6f5-b7a0-46d5-85f1-ad8dd1ca32ef.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nAnalysts split on whether inflation slowdown will continue into March -EnterpriseAM poll - 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A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542992,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/30\/central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-despite-fed-tightening\/","url_meta":{"origin":663297,"position":1},"title":"Central bank to leave rates on hold despite Fed tightening","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave interest rates on hold when it meets this Thursday despite forecasts for rising inflation at home and higher interest rates abroad. All eight analysts and economists we polled expect the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the benchmark rate at 8.25%, telling us\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "ANALYST POLL"","block_context":{"text":"ANALYST POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/analyst-poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/356.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589289,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":663297,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBE is adopting a wait-and-see approach while previous rate hikes take effect","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1218.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571553,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":663297,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves rates unchanged in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE decides to keep a bullet in its chamber, leaving rates on hold at MPC meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for the second consecutive month when it met on Thursday, the central bank said in a statement(pdf). The bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":581490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/12\/food-prices-hit-record-high-on-january-devaluation\/","url_meta":{"origin":663297,"position":4},"title":"Food prices hit record high on January devaluation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation hit a fresh five-year high in January on the back of a record increase in food prices due to the devaluation of the EGP. Figures released on Thursday by state statistics agency Capmas showed that annual urban inflation jumped to 25.8% y-o-y in January, up from 21.3% the month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/Market-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596913,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/11\/egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":663297,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation rate in single digits for first time since March 2016, CBE still expected to hold rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation hits lowest levels in over three years, but mind the subsidy cuts in next month\u2019s reading: Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in June from 14.1% in May, the first time the reading has come in single digits since March 2016, the CBE said (pdf) in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1946.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663297\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/663284"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663298"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663297"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=663297"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=663297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}