{"id":662444,"date":"2025-03-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/17\/us-tariffs-will-have-a-limited-impact-on-mena-economies-though-headwinds-may-follow-economists-say\/"},"modified":"2025-03-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T00:00:00","slug":"us-tariffs-will-have-a-limited-impact-on-mena-economies-though-headwinds-may-follow-economists-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/17\/us-tariffs-will-have-a-limited-impact-on-mena-economies-though-headwinds-may-follow-economists-say\/","title":{"rendered":"US tariffs will have a \u201climited\u201d impact on MENA economies, though headwinds may follow, economists say"},"content":{"rendered":"

BMI sees US tariffs having a limited effect on the MENA region:<\/strong> Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI sees MENA countries (and GCC countries in particular) being safe from direct tariffs from the Trump administration due to \u201ceconomic and strategic considerations,\u201d it said in its MENA Monthly Outlook Report (pdf)<\/a>. While exports from the region will not be significantly affected, there could be an impact on oil prices and inflation, with more debt-ridden emerging markets set to feel the brunt of the impacts.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Tariffs on the UAE and Saudi Arabia would be \u201ccounterproductive\u201d:<\/strong> The report argues that the two countries\u2019 investments in the US \u2014 specifically in AI \u2014 along with close relations with US President Donald Trump would make tariffs on both countries \u201ccounterproductive,\u201d especially as Trump looks to \u201cexpand the Abraham Accords and reduce China's influence in the Middle East,\u201d the report reads.<\/p>\n

The impact on the oil market:<\/strong> \u201cThe macro outlook for MENA (Middle East and North Africa) is set to be weighed down by global tariff uncertainty indirectly through oil prices, to the extent that tariff and macro uncertainties continue to be a drag to Brent oil prices,\u201d Standard Chartered MENA Economist Carla Slim told CNBC<\/a>. While tariffs could drive up the price of oil in the short term, providing a boost to oil-exporting economies, a resulting slowdown in global trade could offset tangible benefits, especially for countries like the UAE that are looking to establish themselves as logistics hubs. <\/p>\n

Interest rates to stay higher for longer:<\/strong> A move from the US Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy tight for the remainder of the year would represent a \u201cdilemma\u201d for policymakers in the GCC, \u201cespecially as the inflationary environment is benign\u201d \u2014 but it would also create \u201chead-winds for the non-oil economy\u201d in Gulf countries, according to the report. Tighter monetary policies could trigger a downturn in private sector investment and growth for economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, S&P Global<\/a> said earlier.<\/p>\n

Countries with high foreign debt, like Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon<\/strong>, are at particular economic risk<\/strong>, CNBC said, as the cost of servicing this external debt could rise on the back of a higher valued greenback. <\/p>\n

A stronger USD will lead to depreciatory <\/strong>pr<\/strong>essure on the EGP<\/strong>, as well as several other currencies in the region, the report reads. Egypt will be among the most affected by this, as \u201cit could slow the decline in price growth, hinder the monetary policy easing cycle, and adversely impact economic growth.\u201d Additionally, a subsequent move to keep monetary policy tight in the US could contribute to a general risk-off sentiment for investors, which could cause outflow risk for portfolio investments, according to BMI.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly on the rise<\/strong>, though China\u2019s CSI 300 is flat after China announced it would boost people\u2019s income in a bid to revive consumption. Japan\u2019s Nikkei and South Korea\u2019s Kospi are both up by more than 1%. <\/p>\n

Wall Street futures signal another disappointing open<\/strong>, after a brutal week that saw sell-offs wipe bns of USD in value of US stocks, and sent the S&P 500 into correction territory. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,338<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +5.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.54<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,854<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: -1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,419<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: 0.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,141<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: -0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,639<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.1% (YTD: -4.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,632<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +5.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,404<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +10.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 70.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3,001.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 82,102<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.7% (YTD: -12.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.2% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.8 bn (8.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 5.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> E-finance (+5.6%), Qalaa Holdings (+4.8%), and Beltone Holding (+3.7%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Rameda (-2.8%), Eastern Company (-2.8%), and Ibnsina Pharma (-2.3%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A higher valued greenback would raise debt servicing costs, while oil prices could take a hit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":662445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,182,349,91,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-662444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ffbeb1ec-9aa1-4bd9-9f96-e942c83a7c8a","order":"10","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/469.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"US tariffs will have a \u201climited\u201d impact on MENA economies, though headwinds may follow, economists say","related_issue":[662427],"teaser":"A higher valued greenback would raise debt servicing costs, while oil prices could take a hit","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.4975087f-2098-40ec-8eae-e5ac1ebd4333.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nUS tariffs will have a \u201climited\u201d impact on MENA economies, though headwinds may follow, economists say - 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Analysts now see Argentina, Nigeria, Malawi, Ethiopia and Bangladesh at risk of seeing their currencies tumble on the back of unsustainable debt burdens and FX shortages, Bloombergreports. \u201cAdditional devaluations in some of the fragile frontier markets are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549945,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/09\/word-bank-raises-its-growth-forecast-for-mena-and-praises-egypts-resolve-to-control-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":662444,"position":1},"title":"Word Bank raises its growth forecast for MENA and praises Egypt\u2019s resolve to control inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The World Bank expects Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at a 4.8% clip in FY 2022-2023, according to its October MENA Economic Update (pdf). 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