{"id":662128,"date":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/11\/us-trade-war-could-trigger-more-expansionary-monetary-and-fiscal-policies-globally\/"},"modified":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","slug":"us-trade-war-could-trigger-more-expansionary-monetary-and-fiscal-policies-globally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/11\/us-trade-war-could-trigger-more-expansionary-monetary-and-fiscal-policies-globally\/","title":{"rendered":"US trade war could trigger more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies globally"},"content":{"rendered":"

The<\/strong> ongoing US trade war might push global economies to tweak their monetary and <\/strong>fiscal policies to account for tariff shocks<\/strong>, Fitch Solutions<\/a> said. Last week, US President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs<\/a> on Canada and Mexico and doubled tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%. He also announced plans to apply 25% tariffs on EU imports, and plans to place additional 25% tariffs<\/a> on all steel and aluminum imports starting this week.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about inflation and interest rates:<\/strong> To counteract economic slowdowns caused by tariffs, central banks may consider lowering interest rates, but their ability to do so varies across countries. The flexibility of monetary policy depends on how closely inflation aligns with targets and whether interest rates have room for adjustment compared to pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n

Where do developed economies stand?<\/strong> The European Central Bank and central banks in Australia and Canada may have more capacity to cut rates due to inflation remaining near target. The US and UK stand in a middle position, with some ability to adjust rates but with inflation concerns potentially limiting aggressive reductions. Japan, facing an inflation rate of 4% \u2014 double its target \u2014 and a minimal policy rate spread, has little room for monetary easing. Meanwhile, China\u2019s policy rate is already far below its 2015\u20132019 average, significantly reducing its ability to introduce further cuts. <\/p>\n

For emerging markets, monetary policy flexibility is closely tied to economic stability. <\/strong>Countries with strong current account balances can lower interest rates with fewer concerns about currency depreciation or capital outflows. However, nations such as Brazil, Romania, and Poland face challenges due to above-target inflation and weaker external conditions, making interest rate cuts more difficult.<\/p>\n

Governments looking to respond through fiscal measures such as increased spending or tax cuts face significant limitations<\/strong>. Resources have been strained by recovery efforts following the covid-19 pandemic and the surge in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Countries such as Germany, South Korea, and Australia, with relatively lower debt and manageable deficits, have more room to implement fiscal stimulus. In contrast, nations like France, Italy, Japan, and the UK, which are burdened with high government debt and fiscal deficits, have little flexibility to maneuver.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

The sell-off on Wall Street extended to Asian markets<\/strong>, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei falling 1.7%, while Topix fell 2%, and South Korea\u2019s Kospi is down 1.5%. China was not spared, with the CSI 3000 falling 0.2% and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng index down 0.9% in early trade. <\/p>\n

Wall Street futures indicate a lower open later today<\/strong>, as concerns over a potential recession continue to drag down stocks. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,137<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +4.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.54<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.65<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,746<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: -2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,393<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: -0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,136<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.7% (YTD: -0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,615<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.7% (YTD: -4.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,600<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +5.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,387<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.5% (YTD: +10.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 69.23<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.46<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,892<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 79,442<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: -15.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30<\/strong> was flat at <\/strong>yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.5 bn (0.5% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 4.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Emaar Misr (+3.5%), Mopco (+2.5%), and TMG Holding (+1.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Beltone Holding (-3.6%), Telecom Egypt (-3.3%), and Rameda Pharma (-3.0%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Central banks can slash interest rates to boost economic activity and combat tariffs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":662129,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,1318,349,724,122,132],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-662128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-planet-finance","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6d097022-4a84-46ed-8c48-cf201eca9828","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/805.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"US trade war could trigger more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies globally","related_issue":[662109],"teaser":"Central banks can slash interest rates to boost economic activity and combat tariffs","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.e71d401d-c6b6-4dd0-bb4f-42d9f6270e02.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nUS trade war could trigger more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies globally - 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The Tracking Index for the Global Economic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2447.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594085,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/20\/all-options-are-on-the-table-to-support-growth-say-finance-chiefs\/","url_meta":{"origin":662128,"position":1},"title":"All options are on the table to support growth, say finance chiefs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stopping the global slowdown: Global central bankers and finance ministers pledged in a statement to use \u201call appropriate policy tools\u201d to stem the slowdown in global growth at the annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington yesterday. Didn\u2019t the IMF just last week warn about the harmful effects of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1149.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595501,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/ems-need-not-worry-too-much-about-slower-world-growth-analyst-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":662128,"position":2},"title":"EMs need not worry too much about slower world growth, analyst says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Are EMs in a better position than developed markets to withstand slower world growth? Positive real interest rates and smaller fiscal deficits are providing emerging market policymakers a range of policy tools with which to combat the global economic slowdown, argues the Financial Times (paywall). In a time where developed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/2275.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599519,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/02\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-at-final-mpc-meeting-of-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":662128,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged at final MPC meeting of 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, citing global monetary policy tightening, trade wars and volatility in the oil market. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545327,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/21\/we-explain-the-unholy-trinity-of-macroeconomics\/","url_meta":{"origin":662128,"position":4},"title":"We explain the Unholy Trinity of Macroeconomics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"How the policy move today is rooted in macroeconomic reality: ECON 101 teaches us that it is impossible for a government to pursue fundamental policy to simultaneously (1) maintain the freeflow of capital, (2) hold fixed FX rates, and (2) maintain an independent monetary policy \u2014 what known as the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise explains"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise explains","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/enterprise-explains\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/532.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544714,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/17\/imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":662128,"position":5},"title":"IMF program + rate hikes in the cards as Ukraine war pressures budget -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch sees new IMF program, rate hike as Ukraine conflict raises pressure on gov\u2019t finances: Lower tourism inflows, higher food prices and tighter financial conditions driven by the war in Ukraine will put pressure on Egypt\u2019s fiscal position, increasing the likelihood of Egypt taking on new funding from the International\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/662128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=662128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/662128\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/662109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/662129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=662128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=662128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=662128"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=662128"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=662128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}