{"id":662117,"date":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/11\/inflation-slips-to-its-lowest-level-in-nearly-3-years-in-february\/"},"modified":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-slips-to-its-lowest-level-in-nearly-3-years-in-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/11\/inflation-slips-to-its-lowest-level-in-nearly-3-years-in-february\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation slips to its lowest level in nearly 3 years in February"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual headline urban inflation plunged to 12.8% in February,<\/strong> marking an 11.2 percentage point drop from the 24.0% recorded in January<\/a>, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. This figure marks the nation\u2019s lowest inflation reading since March 2022<\/a> when inflation recorded 10.49% and has stayed above single digits since. On a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%.<\/p>\n

F&B price inflation saw a significant drop: <\/strong>Food and beverage price inflation \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 fell by 17.1 percentage points to 3.7% in February \u2014 its weakest pace since June 2021, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. \u201cMeanwhile, our measure of non-food inflation declined to a two-year low of 17.3% y-o-y with the largest falls recorded in health, recreation and culture, furnishings, and restaurants and hotels,\u201d the note reads. On a monthly basis, food and beverages prices were up by 0.2%, marking the second consecutive monthly rise in prices. <\/p>\n

Annual core inflatio<\/strong>n \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 dropped by <\/strong>12.6 <\/strong>percentage points <\/strong>from January\u2019s 22.6% to record 10.0%, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt<\/a>. On a monthly basis, core inflation stood at 1.6% in February, compared to 1.7% in January.<\/p>\n

Everyone expected inflation to fall \u2014 the question was by how much:<\/strong> Analysts polled by EnterpriseAM were only divided over just how far the month\u2019s annual headline urban inflation reading will fall, with some having correctly predicted that the figure could inch close to a single digit on the back of a favorable base effect. The median forecast of the ten analysts we polled<\/a> last week was for annual headline urban inflation to fall to 14.3%. Meanwhile, a Reuters<\/a> poll showed a similar median prediction of inflation falling to 14.5%. <\/p>\n

Driving the drop:<\/strong> \u201cFirst of all, the significant base year effect will be one of the driving factors to making inflation fall below 20%, and it will come despite seasonal pressures related to food inflation, with goods including poultry seeing an increase in prices with the beginning of Ramadan. Other factors include possible changes in the education and healthcare baskets, which could also influence the reading,\u201d economist Mona Bedeir told EnterpriseAM last week.<\/p>\n

The favorable base effect played a big role: <\/strong>\u201cFebruary inflation reading enjoyed a particularly strong base effect coinciding with a comparable period that was exceptionally cruel with respect to monthly inflation reading. February 2024 recorded more than 11% m-o-m, which was the highest increase for a single month on our records,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed told us. <\/p>\n

Analysts react:<\/strong> \u201cFebruary inflation came lower than our estimate of 14.5% y-o-y and 2.9% m-o-m. We attribute the significant y-o-y drop to the favorable base year effect and the availability of lower-priced goods at government outlets in preparation for Ramadan,\u201d HC Securities\u2019 Heba Monir told EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

Moving forward:<\/strong> \u201cOver the coming months, we expect the headline rate will continue to slow and fall back within the CBE\u2019s inflation target range of 7\u00b12%<\/a> in 2Q, where it is likely to hover for much of this year,\u201d Swanston said.<\/p>\n

\n

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR INTEREST RATES-<\/p>\n

Slowing inflation will have a big role to play in the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) <\/strong>meeting:<\/strong> Previous statements by the CBE have pointed at wanting to see a sharper and sustained fall in the headline inflation rate, and with earlier falls in the EGP now falling out of the annual price comparison, we suspect that February and March's inflation data will provide policymakers with the evidence to loosen monetary policy, Swanston told us.<\/p>\n

A cut is not set in ston<\/strong>e, however:<\/strong> Some of the analysts who spoke to EnterpriseAM indicated that the MPC could adopt a more cautious approach and keep interest rates unchanged temporarily to monitor conditions before initiating a gradual reduction later in the year. \u201cWe believe the CBE might prefer a relatively gradual easing path, maybe starting with a 200-bps cut in its coming meeting, with its eyes wide open given some expected inflationary pressures during some months and, equally importantly, global adverse factors including high uncertainties pertaining to Trump II policies as well as the surrounding geopolitics.\u201d Ahmed said.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> The MPC decided<\/a> to keep interest rates unchanged when it held its first meeting of the year in February, in what was expected by some to be the beginning of its long-awaited monetary easing cycle. The MPC deemed that \u201cthe current policy rates are appropriate to maintain a sufficiently tight monetary stance. This will ensure the realization of the projected disinflation path, and firmly anchor inflation expectations. Accordingly, the Committee\u2019s decisions regarding the appropriate time for beginning the accommodative cycle will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual headline urban inflation plunged to 12.8% in February<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":662118,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-662117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f1e5afc1-03a1-4322-8aeb-8e6d57650068","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/788.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation slips to its lowest level in nearly 3 years in February","related_issue":[662109],"teaser":"Annual headline urban inflation plunged to 12.8% in February","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.656e79b9-b148-485f-bee9-7c1da35065b6.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation slips to its lowest level in nearly 3 years in February - 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That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":658449,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/12\/inflation-falls-to-its-lowest-level-in-two-years\/","url_meta":{"origin":662117,"position":2},"title":"Inflation falls to its lowest level in two years","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation dropped to 24.1% in December","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/260.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556077,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/inflation-hits-20-month-high-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":662117,"position":3},"title":"Inflation hits 20-month high in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation continued its upward trend in September, hitting a 20-month high on the back of increasing food, healthcare and education costs, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. Headline urban inflation jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 5.7% in August. This is the highest annual inflation rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564976,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":662117,"position":4},"title":"Inflation edges up in February as education, tobacco costs rise","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February, up from 4.3% the previous month, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. The increase came after a drop in January, when the headline rate fell from 5.4%, and in December, when it slowed down from November\u2019s five-month high of 5.7%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":662079,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/10\/annual-urban-headline-inflation-falls-to-12-8-in-february\/","url_meta":{"origin":662117,"position":5},"title":"Annual urban headline inflation falls to 12.8% in February","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Good afternoon, friends, and happy Monday. Amid a general slowdown in the international and domestic presses this month, we have all the latest for you \u2014 including Capmas\u2019 inflation figures for February and tidings of the potential collapse of Elon Musk\u2019s business empire.THE BIG STORY TODAY Annual headline urban inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT"","block_context":{"text":"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TONIGHT","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-tonight\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/761.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/662117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=662117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/662117\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/662109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/662118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=662117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=662117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=662117"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=662117"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=662117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}