{"id":662043,"date":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/10\/a-steady-flow-of-inflows-is-one-of-the-main-highlights-of-the-economy-post-float-capital-economics\/"},"modified":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","slug":"a-steady-flow-of-inflows-is-one-of-the-main-highlights-of-the-economy-post-float-capital-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/10\/a-steady-flow-of-inflows-is-one-of-the-main-highlights-of-the-economy-post-float-capital-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"A steady flow of inflows is one of the main highlights of the economy post float -Capital Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Capital Economics gives Egypt a progress report:<\/strong> London-based research outfit Capital Economics\u2019 MENA team hosted a 20-minute briefing (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=dTzn5UqAkeA\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">watch, runtime: 22:51<\/a>) discussing Egypt\u2019s progress on implementing economic reforms and policy one year after the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s decision to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ac569e2c-c6f2-480e-bdaa-3f1cd4f81d05\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">float the EGP<\/a> and adopt a flexible exchange rate regime. The research unit delved into the latest policy decisions and the persisting challenges, before giving its two cents on the big questions that pertain to Egypt\u2019s economy moving forward.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The shift in policy has begun to bear fruit:<\/strong> \u201cWe are starting to see the tides turn. The policy shift has allowed for a steady flow of capital inflows into Egypt, it\u2019s becoming more stably financed by direct investment inflows, we\u2019re seeing news about foreign companies investing more and taking more on in terms of expanding activities, and we\u2019re also starting to see certain exports perform better,\u201d senior economist James Swanston said, \u201cThis has reflected in recent PMI readings as well,\u201d Swanston added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Remember:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s non-oil business activity <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/cfe06eb3-d522-4b81-8124-8ca21a66e994\/egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-non-oil-private-sector-stays-in-expansion-territory-for-second-consecutive-month\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">continued to see expansion<\/a> for the second month running in February \u2014 but at a slower pace \u2014 in what marked the first back-to-back improvement in business conditions in over four years. The data reflects the best opening two months of the year in the survey's history.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But progress on some fronts has stalled due to a number of factors:<\/strong> Loss of Suez Canal revenues has had a strain on Egypt\u2019s balance of payments, and has coincided with the near-term impact of the float of the EGP \u2014 imports became more costly, and the impact of the country\u2019s external capacity for exports haven\u2019t been felt yet. Meanwhile, the tightening of fiscal policy, interest rate hikes, and inflation have caused a slowdown in economic growth. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Thankfully, however, it\u2019s not looking like it will be a repeat of 2016:<\/strong> Egypt \u201cappears to have loosened its grip on its currency, allowing it to move more freely\u201d \u2014 at the same time, fiscal policy has remained tight, \u201cwhich is one area where they have made sustained progress since 2016,\u201d the firm\u2019s deputy chief emerging markets economist Jason Tuvey said. Comparative progress on the privatization program, and apparent attempts at reducing the military\u2019s footprint in the economy are other key factors, he added. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>And this is making investors more confident in Egypt\u2019s economy:<\/strong> The EGP being allowed to move more freely is a key aspect of the government\u2019s new approach that is giving the wider reform agenda credibility at home and abroad, Swanston said. The approach also reassures foreign investors that they can plan investments with the knowledge that the EGP\u2019s exchange rate reflects the actual price you can sell it for and that there shouldn\u2019t be any heavy devaluations down the line.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The forecasted post-devaluation FDI boom didn\u2019t materialize as many had hoped, but the <\/strong><strong>longer term view is positive: <\/strong>\u201cWe expect slow and steady progress on reforms, and we expect FDI to slowly creep up in Egypt. We\u2019ve seen some tentative signs that firms are taking more interest in Egypt,\u201d Tuvey said. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>There\u2019s also no evidence of the EGP being overvalued: <\/strong>Capital Economics sees the currency weakening to EGP 55 against the greenback by the end of this year. However, \u201cwe could be in for a surprise with all the capital inflows. If exports start to perform better, the currency could appreciate,\u201d Swanston added. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation targets may also soon be in reach: <\/strong>Capital Economics also expects inflation to slow down to the CBE\u2019s target of an average of 7% \u00b12 percentage points over the coming months, and hover around that range over the course of the year, according to Swanston. Lower inflation will then prompt the CBE to begin its loosening cycle in April, he added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Slowing inflation will have a big role to play in the next Monetary Policy Committee <\/strong><strong>meeting:<\/strong> \u201cPrevious statements by the CBE have pointed at wanting to see a sharper and sustained fall in the headline inflation rate, and with earlier falls in the EGP now falling out of the annual price comparison, we suspect that February and March's inflation data will provide policymakers with the evidence to loosen monetary policy,\u201d Swanston previously told EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A loose exchange rate regime and tight fiscal policy are steps in the right direction<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":662044,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-662043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"44cd84f7-79a3-4f53-9fdf-d5de723ee837","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/370.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A steady flow of inflows is one of the main highlights of Egypt\u2019s economy post float -Capital Economics","related_issue":[662038],"teaser":"A loose exchange rate regime and tight fiscal policy are steps in the right direction","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.3b9f9ac5-5b0c-4072-8835-a6bd2cb4f951.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Emerging market central banks are indirectly intervening in currency markets to contain inflation, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agust\u00edn Carstens said in a speech earlier this month at the London School of Economics.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601440,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/egypt-economic-growth-to-beat-expectations-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":662043,"position":1},"title":"Egypt economic growth to beat expectations- Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth will beat expectations as sovereign bond yields fall and the government\u2019s austerity program draws to a close, according to a report by Capital Economics. The country\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio has also begun to fall back as the primary budget balance enters a surplus for the first time in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/276.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548705,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/foreign-exchange-policy-will-be-job-1-for-amers-successor-as-calls-for-devaluation-mount\/","url_meta":{"origin":662043,"position":2},"title":"Foreign exchange policy will be job #1 for Amer\u2019s successor as calls for devaluation mount","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Tarek Amer left the central bank at a crucial time for the economy: A perfect storm of heightened commodity prices, rising interest rates, and global volatility (including both an economic slowdown and volatility in global capital markets) is putting the Egyptian economy and the EGP in a tight spot. Speculation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":604958,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/18\/egypt-paving-the-way-for-a-weaker-egp-with-simplified-fx-policy-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":662043,"position":3},"title":"Egypt \u201cpaving the way\u201d for a weaker EGP with simplified FX policy -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 December 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt \u201cpaving the way\u201d for a weaker EGP with simplified FX policy, says Capital Economics: The EGP will likely weaken by end-2019 as policymakers work to \u201csimplify the country\u2019s exchange rate setup,\u201d Capital Economics said in a research note out yesterday. Recent moves by the Finance Ministry and CBE including\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":642256,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/08\/09\/egypts-experience-causing-concerns-for-moroccos-plan-to-float-currency-bloomberg\/","url_meta":{"origin":662043,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s experience causing concerns for Morocco\u2019s plan to float currency -Bloomberg","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 August 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Morocco is postponing a decision to float its currency after concerns arose following Egypt\u2019s currency flotation, Ahmed Namatalla and Ahmed Feteha write for Bloomberg. \u201cThe move to a more flexible exchange rate regime, not a float, is still in the cards but the rollout will take place at the appropriate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;EGYPT IN THE NEWS&quot;","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570311,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/26\/covid-19-could-cause-egypts-gdp-to-shrink-1-3-this-year-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":662043,"position":5},"title":"Covid-19 could cause Egypt\u2019s GDP to shrink 1.3% this year -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Covid-19 could cause Egypt\u2019s GDP to shrink 1.3% this year, before bouncing back in 2021, says Capital Economics: Egypt could see its economy contract 1.3% in 2020 on the back of the covid-19 outbreak, said Jason Tuvey, senior EM economist at Capital Economics. 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