{"id":661543,"date":"2025-03-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/02\/ebrd-trims-egypts-2025-growth-forecast\/"},"modified":"2025-03-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-02T00:00:00","slug":"ebrd-trims-egypts-2025-growth-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/03\/02\/ebrd-trims-egypts-2025-growth-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD trims Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

EBRD <\/strong>trims Egypt\u2019s growth forecast: <\/strong>The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered Egypt\u2019s growth forecast for 2025 to 4.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from its previous estimates in September<\/a>, according to its latest Regional Economic Prospects report (pdf)<\/a>. The lender also trimmed its forecast for the fiscal year ending June 2025 to 3.6%, a 0.4 percentage-point downgrade from its previous estimate.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The EBRD sees a brighter 2026: <\/strong>The EBRD shared its first forecast for next year, projecting GDP growth to accelerate to 4.7% in 2026 and to reach 4.6% in the fiscal year 2025-2026 as investor confidence strengthens and reforms gain traction. <\/p>\n

What about last year\u2019s performance? <\/strong>According to its preliminary estimates, the multilateral lender expects Egypt\u2019s economy to have grown 2.9% last year, a 0.3 percentage-point downgrade from its September forecast. <\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s economic recovery picked up pace in the first quarter of FY 24-25<\/strong>, following a period of macroeconomic instability and currency volatility, the EBRD said. Growth this fiscal year is expected to be led by \u201ccommunications, accommodation and food, transportation, and storage (excluding the Suez Canal) and financial services,\u201d alongside the manufacturing sector which is showing signs of recovery after last year\u2019s contraction. <\/p>\n

The multilateral lender expects prices to cool down a bit in the coming period:<\/strong> \u201cPrices will likely continue to fall due to base effects and tight monetary policy, despite necessary future adjustments to fuel prices,\u201d the report said, pointing January\u2019s<\/a> inflation easing to 24%, the country\u2019s lowest inflation reading since December 2022.<\/p>\n

Our external position looks promising, but risks remain:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s external position has strengthened in the wake of the Ras El Hekma agreement, however, \u201cvulnerabilities remain,\u201d the report noted. <\/p>\n

Despite improvements, debt concerns remain front and center: <\/strong>The country\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 85% in FY 2024-2025, down from 96% the previous year. However, the burden of debt servicing remains high, according to the lender, with deb payments expected to take up 50-60% of government spending in the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n

THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK-<\/strong> Economic growth in the SEMED region stalled in 2024, dragged down by war-driven contraction in Lebanon and broader geopolitical instability. A late-year rebound is fueling optimism, with growth expected to pick up in 2025. The region\u2019s growth is forecast to hit 3.7% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, though risks \u2014 from geopolitical flare-ups to climate shocks \u2014 remain high.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The EBRD now sees the economy growing at a 4.2% clip in 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":661544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[571,104,72,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-661543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-ebrd","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9550b68a-eb4d-48d8-8648-4c748b2792c3","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1239.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EBRD trims Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth forecast","related_issue":[661538],"teaser":"The EBRD now sees the economy growing at a 4.2% clip in 2025","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.57979cf6-2c2e-48ad-82d5-22054427874f.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nEBRD trims Egypt\u2019s 2025 growth forecast - 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This is an upwards revision of 0.4 percentage points from the bank\u2019s June\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/345.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566601,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/29\/ebrd-is-a-bit-more-optimistic-about-our-growth-prospects\/","url_meta":{"origin":661543,"position":3},"title":"EBRD is a bit more optimistic about our growth prospects","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 4.5% in FY2021-2022, says EBRD in June update: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) sees economic growth in Egypt slowing down to 2.5% in the state\u2019s ongoing fiscal year, which ends on 1 July, before recovering to 4.5% in FY2021-2022, the bank said in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":644574,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/29\/ebrd-revises-egypts-gdp-growth-for-2025-upward\/","url_meta":{"origin":661543,"position":4},"title":"EBRD revises Egypt\u2019s GDP growth for 2025 upward","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The EBRD now sees the country growing at a 4.5% clip in 2025","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/2141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":620141,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/16\/ebrd-once-again-slashes-our-growth-forecast-for-2024\/","url_meta":{"origin":661543,"position":5},"title":"EBRD once again slashes our growth forecast for 2024","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 May 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The EBRD cut our growth forecast for 2024 to 3.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from its September forecast","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1271.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/661543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=661543"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/661543\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/661538"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/661544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=661543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=661543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=661543"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=661543"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=661543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}