{"id":660983,"date":"2025-02-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/20\/bnp-paribas-two-cents-on-egypts-economic-outlook-over-the-next-two-years\/"},"modified":"2025-02-20T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T00:00:00","slug":"bnp-paribas-two-cents-on-egypts-economic-outlook-over-the-next-two-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/20\/bnp-paribas-two-cents-on-egypts-economic-outlook-over-the-next-two-years\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP Paribas\u2019 two cents on Egypt\u2019s economic outlook over the next two years"},"content":{"rendered":"

An air of cautious optimism characterizes Egypt\u2019s economic outlook:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s economy is currently enjoying positive momentum with recent inflation data as well as the relative stability of the exchange rate representing positive indicators for the economy moving forward, French banking giant BNP Paribas said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. While support from international donors and institutions has aided Egypt\u2019s path to economic recovery, deep-seated structural problems pertaining to the country\u2019s public finances and external account position will only be resolved \u201cvery gradually,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n

FX liquidity, stability are pivotal factors on our path to recovery:<\/strong> FX liquidity and the continued stabilization of the foreign exchange market will be the key factors for sustaining Egypt\u2019s recovery in the next two years \u2014 a recovery that the bank said will be driven by household consumption, which has already shown signs of recovery in the first half of the current fiscal year. However, the bank expects a \u201cmore balanced recovery\u201d to take place starting in 2026.<\/p>\n

Investment is expected to remain slow in the short term:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s fiscal consolidation efforts under its program with the International Monetary Fund will slow public sector investment in the short term, while \u201cproductive investment\u201d from the private sector is not expected to pick up starting 2026. Meanwhile, Egypt\u2019s capacity utilization \u2014 that is, the extent to which the economy is using its productive capacity \u2014 remains below 70% on average, well below the minimum of 90% needed to trigger an investment drive, the bank said. <\/p>\n

BNP sees gradual GDP growth, inflation slowdown over the next two years:<\/strong> The bank sees GDP growing 4% in FY 2024-25, followed by a \u201cmoderate acceleration\u201d to 4.7% growth in FY 2025-26. The bank also sees inflation slowing significantly to 19.8% this year \u2014 down from 33.6% last year \u2014 before dropping even further to 10.3% in 2026, placing it just over the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s target of an average of 7% \u00b12 percentage points by 4Q 2026.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> Inflation continued to dip in January<\/a> \u2014 but at a considerably slower rate \u2014 with the latest reading coming in at 24.0%, down from 24.1% in December. While this figure marks the nation\u2019s lowest inflation reading since December 2022, it still represented a loss of momentum in the country\u2019s inflation slowdown, with the figure coming in higher than many analysts expected. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, there\u2019s no clear consensus on the country\u2019s GDP outlook over the next two years:<\/strong> Capital Economics penciled in a prediction<\/a> of 5.3% growth for FY 2025-26, slightly higher than the IMF and the World Bank\u2019s respective predictions<\/a> of 4.1% and 4.2%. <\/p>\n

\u201cCautious optimism\u201d appears to be a common sentiment among analysts over Egypt\u2019s econom<\/strong>ic outlook:<\/strong> Morgan Stanley<\/a> echoed a similar view describing the overall sentiment over Egypt\u2019s economy among local stakeholders during its recent trip to Cairo. Similarly, Morgan Stanley projected cooling inflation and significant rate cuts taking place this year, while penciling in predictions of further deterioration for the EGP in the process. A separate visit from Goldman Sachs<\/a> last month voiced similar conclusions, expecting \u201cdeep rate cuts\u201d while suggesting that the exchange rate would remain \u201cwell-supported\u201d in the short term.<\/p>\n

\n

THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP\u2019S SECOND TERM IN OFFICE-<\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s second term as US president is expected to come with multiple implications for Egy<\/strong>pt\u2019s economy<\/strong>, with the bank singling out the new administration\u2019s impact on geopolitics in the region as the key factor of concern for Egypt in the short term. Continued support for a ceasefire in Gaza on the US\u2019s part could help strengthen maritime traffic through the Suez Canal and bring up tourism revenues, contributing to a better picture for Egypt\u2019s economy. <\/p>\n

On the energy front<\/strong>, the US\u2019 push toward increasing LNG production and export capacity in the future of its energy policy \u201cis unlikely to have a positive short-term impact on Egypt\u2019s energy bill.\u201d While the US is expected to increase its exports of LNG in 2025, \u201cthe effects of the new export licences will not be felt for a few years,\u201d the bank said. <\/p>\n

The EGP is expected to continue to deteriorate against the greenback:<\/strong> In the short term, the EGP is projected to continue to fall against the USD as a result of the greenback\u2019s \u201cstrength on international markets and the increase in the current account deficit,\u201d but the drop is expected to take place at a \u201cmoderate pace.\u201d<\/p>\n

The new administration is not expected to have a large impact on Egypt\u2019s current a<\/strong>ccount balance:<\/strong> \u201cAll in all, we feel that the potential consequences of the new US administration\u2019s policy on external accounts will be relatively balanced and, in principle, limited in scope. They could be fairly positive on the current account balance and neutral or even negative on the financing side.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deep-seated structural problems pertaining to the country\u2019s public finances and external account position will only be resolved \u201cvery gradually\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":660984,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[943,104,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-660983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bnp-paribas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"17ef0040-ff86-4c22-acd6-113265b88b11","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/1975.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"BNP Paribas\u2019 two cents on Egypt\u2019s economic outlook over the next two years","related_issue":[660964],"teaser":"Deep-seated structural problems pertaining to the country\u2019s public finances and external account position will only be resolved \u201cvery gradually\u201d","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/2\/.7fb03736-7833-4e55-9d11-d700e3e630d9.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nBNP Paribas\u2019 two cents on Egypt\u2019s economic outlook over the next two years - 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The investment bank maintains its positive outlook on fixed income, particularly short-dated T-bills, and see scope for further steady appreciation in the EGP on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561793,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas\/","url_meta":{"origin":660983,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 3.1% this fiscal year, says BNP Paribas","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 3.1% clip in the government\u2019s current 2020-2021 fiscal year, down from 3.8% in the previous fiscal year, on the back of declining tourism revenues at the outset of the pandemic, BNP Paribas said in a recent economic research report (pdf). Fiscal support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/213.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":651257,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/08\/egypts-economy-to-bottom-out-in-the-current-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":660983,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to bottom out in the current fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 February 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The general optimism on the economy continues as Egypt\u2019s economy should bottom out and start improving in FY2016-17, according to a report by BNP Paribas. \u201cSeveral factors will undoubtedly have a positive macroeconomic impact, including the floating pound, improvements in foreign currency liquidity, the accelerated pace of fiscal reforms, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":638663,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/11\/bnp-paribas-says-cairo-trip-reaffirms-positive-outlook-on-egyptian-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":660983,"position":3},"title":"BNP Paribas says Cairo trip reaffirms positive outlook on Egyptian economy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent visit to Cairo by BNP Paribas reps reaffirmed the bank\u2019s \u201cpositive outlook on the Egyptian economy, whilst highlighted the key challenge of competitiveness in the medium term,\u201d according to trip notes sent to Enterprise (pdf). \u201cOngoing reforms (monetary and fiscal) have put the Egyptian economy on the right\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":650244,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/03\/20\/markets-show-that-egypt-is-now-less-likely-to-default-beating-em-peers-bnp-paribas\/","url_meta":{"origin":660983,"position":4},"title":"Markets show that Egypt is now less likely to default, beating EM peers -BNP Paribas","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 March 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s five-year credit default swaps tightened to 330 bps after falling by around 120 bps since the start of 2017, reflecting rapid improvement in the country\u2019s risk perception, according to BNP Paribas\u2019 Africa DCM Weekly Update. 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The loan benefited from a sovereign guarantee by the Finance Ministry and insurance by Germany's state-owned\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=660983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660983\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/660964"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/660984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=660983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=660983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=660983"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=660983"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=660983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}