{"id":660727,"date":"2025-02-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/17\/to-cut-or-not-to-cut-analysts-weigh-in-on-the-mpcs-next-move\/"},"modified":"2025-02-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T00:00:00","slug":"to-cut-or-not-to-cut-analysts-weigh-in-on-the-mpcs-next-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/17\/to-cut-or-not-to-cut-analysts-weigh-in-on-the-mpcs-next-move\/","title":{"rendered":"To cut or not to cut: Analysts weigh in on the MPC\u2019s next move"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analysts are divided over whether the MPC will cut rates this week. <\/strong>Some are predicting that the Central Bank of Egypt will cut interest rates by 100-200 basis points (bps) when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, with analysts pointing to a strong positive base effect and slowing inflation as factors that could influence the decision. Others believe that the recent inflation data will prompt the bank to wait until the next time the MPC meets in April. Four of the analysts and economists we surveyed see the MPC cutting rates this month, two others said they were 50\/50 on the decision, while three more suggested that the committee would hold rates.<\/p>\n

Where rates currently stand:<\/strong> The overnight deposit rate stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 27.75%. Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike<\/a> following a surprise monetary policy meeting last March, which was soon followed by the float of the EGP and the approval of a larger loan package from the IMF.<\/p>\n

The central bank hasn\u2019t made any changes to interest rates since its March rate hike \u2014<\/strong> leaving them untouched when it met in May, July, September, October, November, and most recently in December<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Inflation continued its downward trajectory in January, albeit at a slower pace:<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation dipped for a third consecutive month in January<\/a>, recording 24.0%, down from 24.1% in December, holding steady as the nation\u2019s lowest inflation reading since December 2022. Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed attributed the stagnancy in the first reading in 2025 partly to higher medical care costs, as well as an uptick in some food items, mainly meat and poultry, which she said \u201cmight be linked to seasonal factors.\u201d She added that \u201csome of the pass-through effect of the relatively higher USD since early November might have been finding its way to various prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lack of agreement on how the inflation figures will factor into the MPC\u2019s dec<\/strong>ision:<\/strong> Analysts were split over whether the recent figures would be enough to prompt a rate cut from the MPC, as other factors that include continued geopolitical tension and a tightened external position could cause the committee to hold off on cutting rates. \u201cThe bank may determine that current inflation rates still necessitate maintaining high interest rates.<\/p>\n

It is worth noting that the rapid growth in Egypt\u2019s money supply has contributed to rising inflation, reaching a record high growth rate of 31% in December 2024,\u201d economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us.<\/p>\n

The base effect could create the necessary space for the CBE to begin its easing cycle:<\/strong> While heightened seasonal spending due to the month of Ramadan and education expenses are expected to maintain inflationary pressures in February, \u201cthere is a strong positive base effect expected to step in, providing a relatively ample range of positive real interest rate allowing the CBE to start easing,\u201d Ahmed told us. \u201cThe CBE might go for cutting rates by 100 \u2013 150 bps in the upcoming meeting,\u201d she added. Meanwhile, economist Mona Bedair sees room for a rate cut by around 100-200 bps, but says it\u2019s more likely for the bank to cut rates 100 bps due to \u201cthe slower-than-expected drop in the inflation reading.\u201d<\/p>\n

Expectations for this month\u2019s inflation reading could influence the CBE\u2019s decision:<\/strong> February\u2019s inflation reading \u2014 which some expect will see a sharp drop on the back of a strong base effect \u2014 could prompt the CBE to cut rates this month, National Bank of Kuwait Economic Research\u2019s Noaman Khalid told us, penciling in a prediction of a 200-300 bps rate cut on Thursday. <\/p>\n

But there are other factors at play than just inflationary pressures:<\/strong> \u201cGiven the tightened external position and the turbulent geopolitical tension and its effect of a potentially delayed recovery of the Suez Canal revenues and the US declaration of potentially displacing Gaza\u2019s residents in several countries, including Egypt, we expect the MPC to leave interest rates unchanged,\u201d HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir said. These factors could threaten Egypt\u2019s FX inflows, she said, \u201cconsidering its external debt dues and energy import bills, creating a need to maintain the attractiveness of the carry trade.\u201d<\/p>\n

The stabilization of the EGP\u2019s exchange rate and improvements in balance of payments ind<\/strong>icators could be seen as an opportunity<\/strong> for the CBE to lower interest rates without negatively affecting currency stability, Abou El Fotouh said.<\/p>\n

Some don\u2019t see the MPC cutting rates until 2Q:<\/strong> Capital Economics is penciling in April for the first rate cut of the year as the most likely scenario, but \u201cisn\u2019t ruling out\u201d a rate cut taking place on Thursday, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston previously said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

Upcoming wage hikes, subsidy cuts could have a minimal impact on inflationary pr<\/strong>essures:<\/strong> \u201cFuel and electricity price hikes had weighed heavily on households and industries when they coincided with sharp currency devaluations, but before the FX crisis and the EGP devaluations in 2022 and 2023, they had limited impact on inflation,\u201d Khalid explained. However, EGBank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal suggested that the impact of the upcoming social support package, anticipated wage increases, and the rise in the prices of certain goods could still contribute to inflation. On that note, Abdel Aal said he could see the MPC going either way on Thursday, but added that he hopes to see an interest rate cut of 200-300 bps either in the upcoming meeting or in the next one in April. <\/p>\n

A rise in real interest rates will curb investments as borrowing costs remain high:<\/strong> The real interest rate will rise from 4% in December 2024 to over 16% in February 2025 if nominal rates remain unchanged \u2014 meaning that the rise in real interest rate from February onwards will \u201cact as a brake on the recovery in investment,\u201d BNP Paribas said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Despite this, uncertainties over Egypt\u2019s inflation outlook will likely prompt the CBE to remain cautious, causing a more gradual decline in rates across 2025, the bank said. <\/p>\n

In the long-term:<\/strong> Beyond their predictions for the CBE\u2019s first rate cut of the year, analysts are divided over just how far the impending easing cycle will go, with uncertainty over the factors affecting Egypt\u2019s economy creating a mixed outlook over how the MPC decides to act. Bedair told us she sees an \u201c8-10% reduction in rates throughout the year, assuming that there are no unexpected circumstances affecting the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation,\u201d while Zilla Capital\u2019s Aya Zoheir sees the CBE cutting rates by 6-8% throughout the year. Meanwhile, Capital Economics sees \u201ca total of 1.6k bps of reductions this year, taking the overnight deposit rate to 11.25%, which is much lower than the consensus forecast of 15.0%,\u201d Swanston said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Four of the nine analysts and economists we surveyed see the MPC cutting rates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":660728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-660727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"896d92e6-a9f9-41df-9e4f-95babd3c47f5","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/481.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"To cut or not to cut: Analysts weigh in on the MPC\u2019s next move","related_issue":[660722],"teaser":"Four of the nine analysts and economists we surveyed see the MPC cutting rates","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/2\/.28e8757f-f278-426d-b695-e3a222225349.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nTo cut or not to cut: Analysts weigh in on the MPC\u2019s next move - 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The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567095,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":660727,"position":1},"title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":660727,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573592,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-august-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":660727,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in August 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE likely to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Nine of 10 analysts surveyed expect the bank to keep\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/76.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":655465,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/19\/analysts-unanimously-forecast-that-the-central-bank-of-egypt-will-keep-interest-rates-unchanged-when-it-meets-on-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":660727,"position":4},"title":"Analysts unanimously forecast that the Central Bank of Egypt will keep interest rates unchanged when it meets on Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 November 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Rising fuel and tobacco prices are set to show in next month\u2019s inflation data","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/481.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":667852,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/06\/most-analysts-see-the-cbe-holding-rates-this-week-enterpriseam-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":660727,"position":5},"title":"Most analysts see the CBE holding rates this week- EnterpriseAM poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 July 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Five of the analysts we spoke to see the MPC keeping rates unchanged this week, while three see the committee continuing its easing cycle this month","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/2177.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=660727"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/660727\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/660722"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/660728"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=660727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=660727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=660727"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=660727"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=660727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}