{"id":659226,"date":"2025-01-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/23\/capital-economics-sees-egypts-gdp-hitting-5-0-clip-in-2024-25-in-above-consensus-projection\/"},"modified":"2025-01-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T00:00:00","slug":"capital-economics-sees-egypts-gdp-hitting-5-0-clip-in-2024-25-in-above-consensus-projection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/23\/capital-economics-sees-egypts-gdp-hitting-5-0-clip-in-2024-25-in-above-consensus-projection\/","title":{"rendered":"Capital Economics sees Egypt\u2019s GDP hitting 5.0% clip in 2024-25 in above-consensus projection"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Capital Economics expects GDP growth to more than double on the year before<\/strong>, with the research and consultancy firm pencilling in a 2.6 percentage point jump from the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/9f7ed194-9bf4-43df-b138-4372b364d873\/gdp-growth-slowed-to-2.4%2525-in-fy-2023-24\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">fiscal year before<\/a> to 5.0% for FY 2024-25, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston said in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.capitaleconomics.com\/publications\/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update\/egypts-economy-set-strong-rebound?check_logged_in=1\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">research note<\/a>. GDP growth is seen continuing to pick up again in the following fiscal year \u2014 albeit with a much less dramatic increase \u2014 to 5.3% for FY 2025-26.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The firm\u2019s forecasts lie well above the consensus from other institutions and analysts,<\/strong> which Swanston said is down to recent developments. The IMF and World Bank this week <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">scaled down<\/a> their forecasts for the current fiscal, with the World Bank cutting its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/026f12b0-b7c3-4889-9cd7-dfb174e79de5\/imf-keeps-egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-growth%253cmark%253e-outlook%253c%2Fmark%253e-unchanged\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">last forecast<\/a> 0.7 percentage points to 3.5%, while the IMF winded down its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/140daea3-14a0-4962-b51a-6369ff9535f2\/world-bank-maintains-egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-growth-forecast-%2B-shares-forecast-for-fy-25-26\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">growth expectations<\/a> 0.5 percentage points to 3.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The ceasefire in Gaza changes the outlook significantly<\/strong>, with the Houthis\u2019 subsequent pledge to reduce attacks in the Red Sea potentially setting the stage to \u201cbolster activity through the Suez Canal and, in turn, Egypt\u2019s trade and logistics sectors,\u201d Swanston argued. The calming of geopolitical tensions in the region could also aid in strengthening the country\u2019s tourism sector as security fears ease, he added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Last year may have also ended on a stronger note than many had assumed, <\/strong>with credit growth being a key factor in a better-than-expected performance for Egypt\u2019s economy near the end of the year. \u201cImproved confidence in the economic outlook has caused a jump in company registrations, largely in services,\u201d while Capital Economics\u2019 measure of real-FX-adjusted bank lending to the non-government sector grew by 2.9% y-o-y in October and manufacturing output was up 11% from its 2023 low point.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>There\u2019s also some upsides to a weakening EGP<\/strong>, as Swanston pointed to it improving \u201cEgypt\u2019s external competitiveness.\u201d Swanston added that there are additional signs from the PMI survey that this is \u201csupporting stronger external demand.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GDP growth is seen continuing to pick up again in the following fiscal year to 5.3%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":659227,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[1433,104,72,348],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-659226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capital-economics","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dc8a8a07-d5b7-4096-ad31-e5c83ac3ebdf","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1656.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Capital Economics sees Egypt\u2019s GDP hitting 5.0% clip in 2024-25 in above-consensus projection","related_issue":[659211],"teaser":"GDP growth is seen continuing to pick up again in the following fiscal year to 5.3%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/1\/.0ee0b2a2-0383-4a66-81fe-52d9beed9894.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The Madbouly government is currently predicting GDP growth to come\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/473.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594319,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/egypt-to-be-the-regions-star-performer-in-2020-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":659226,"position":2},"title":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics: Egypt will be the MENA region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 as the central bank continues to cut interest rates and the government loosens fiscal policy, William Jackson, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Thursday. GDP will grow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/660.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621449,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/08\/preliminary-govt-figures-show-egypts-gdp-growth-at-5-3-in-1q18-19\/","url_meta":{"origin":659226,"position":3},"title":"Preliminary gov\u2019t figures show Egypt\u2019s GDP growth at 5.3% in 1Q18-19","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Economy grew 5.3% in 1Q18-19, according to preliminary gov\u2019t figures: Egypt\u2019s GDP grew 5.3% y-o-y during the first quarter of FY2018-19, according to preliminary figures made public yesterday by Planning Minister Hala El Said told cabinet. Growth was driven by the gas, ICT, and construction sectors, as well as Suez\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":585774,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/30\/economy-set-to-grow-4-0-this-fiscal-year-reuters\/","url_meta":{"origin":659226,"position":4},"title":"Economy set to grow 4.0% this fiscal year -Reuters","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth is set to pick up again in the next two years","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/953.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598693,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/02\/egypts-budget-deficit-hits-5-3-of-gdp-in-9m2018-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":659226,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit hits 5.3% of GDP in 9M2018-2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit fell to 5.3% of GDP in 9M2018-2019, compared to 6.2% in the same period the previous year, the Finance Ministry said in its April monthly bulletin (pdf). The primary surplus came at 0.7% of GDP during the first nine months of the fiscal year. The numbers came\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=659226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659226\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/659211"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/659227"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=659226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=659226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=659226"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=659226"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=659226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}