{"id":659086,"date":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/21\/what-a-second-trump-presidency-could-mean-for-the-mena-region\/"},"modified":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","slug":"what-a-second-trump-presidency-could-mean-for-the-mena-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/21\/what-a-second-trump-presidency-could-mean-for-the-mena-region\/","title":{"rendered":"What a second Trump presidency could mean for the MENA region"},"content":{"rendered":"

US president-elect Donald Trump\u2019s return into office is widely expected to have a <\/strong>considerable influence on the economies of the Middle East<\/strong> at large, with Trump having already dropped some hints over what could be expected from his second term during rallies and campaign addresses held during the weeks following his election into office for the second time. Some economists predict that Trump\u2019s tariffs will put extra pressure on US inflation, particularly as he has vowed \u2014 although not immediately delivered \u2014 a 60% tariff on Chinese goods<\/a>, as well as a 10% tariff on imports from other countries.<\/p>\n

The potential inflationary pressure could push the US Federal Reserve to delay its next<\/strong> round of interest rate cuts<\/strong>, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanton wrote in a report seen by EnterpriseAM. A Reuters poll<\/a> of economists echoes the same sentiment, suggesting that the Fed will keep rates on hold when its Federal Open Market Committee meets next Wednesday, 29 January. \u201cIf they [Trump\u2019s administration] deliver anything close to what they promised on the tariff front, then we are going to probably see a stalling of disinflationary pressures, where the Fed is not going to be cutting,\" said Barclays Senior US Economist Jonathan Millar.<\/p>\n

What this means for us in the region:<\/strong> As Gulf central banks follow the Fed\u2019s monetary policy decisions by virtue of their USD pegs, they would also hold off on cutting interest rates. For non-Gulf countries, such as Egypt, high interest rates in the US mean higher sovereign borrowing costs.<\/p>\n

Trump is also widely expected to impose new sanctions on Iran <\/strong>\u2014 which, along with sanctions on Russian oil, is expected to lead to higher oil prices this year, Swanton said. However, rising global supplies of oil and LNG are expected to cause prices to fall back \u2014 which could, in turn, cause \u201cthe current account and budget balances in the Gulf to deteriorate. Many governments, notably Saudi\u2019s, will turn to fiscal consolidation,\u201d according to Swanton.<\/p>\n

More US oil production could directly result in price pressures in oil-producing states in <\/strong>the region:<\/strong> Trump also signaled his intentions of increasing US oil output during his term \u2014 which, coupled with estimates from OPEC and the International Energy Agency projecting relatively weak demand for oil in 2025, could create additional price pressures result in \u201cbudget tightening by oil-producing states in the Middle East, in turn increasing the risk to government contractors of payment delays and challenges for contracting new projects,\u201d according to a report<\/a> from advisory firm DGA Group.<\/p>\n

However, the potential impact of Trump\u2019s presidency on the region's macro outlook may <\/strong>be over-stated:<\/strong> \u201cThe region as a whole is relatively sheltered from a protectionist trade shift in Trump\u2019s second term. The bigger risks to the outlook stem from geopolitics, although the agreed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria have potentially paved the way towards a de-escalation of tensions,\u201d Swanton argued.<\/p>\n

The truce represents a chance to improve economic conditions in the region, particularly <\/strong>for Egypt<\/strong>, Alraya Consulting Managing Partner Hany Abou El Fotouh told us. \u201cThe ceasefire improves regional stability, which will encourage foreign investments and revitalize tourism. For Egypt, the stability of navigation in the Suez Canal is a crucial economic gain, as the canal is a significant source of hard currency. Stability also helps alleviate pressures on Egypt's national security and allows resources to be redirected toward development,\u201d he said. Cairo-based economist Medhat Nafei agreed with this, adding that he expects the escalations in the trade war between the US and China to present a chance for the government to provide incentives for private sector players to increase exports, filling a gap in the US market. <\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a mixed morning for Asian markets<\/strong>, with investors largely holding their breaths as they adopt a wait-and-see approach following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump last night. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is just barely in the green, while South Korea\u2019s Kospi and the Shanghai Index have slipped into red territory.<\/p>\n

The picture is more or less the same across the pond<\/strong>, with Wall Street futures broadly flat in anticipation of potential tariffs with several US trade partners.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29,619<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.37<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.25<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,380<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +2.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9507<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5196<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5997<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +2.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8521<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +4.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5164<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +5.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 79.79<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2731.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 102,830.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +10.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.4% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.9 bn (0.7% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is down 0.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Elsewedy Electric (+8.7%), B Investments Holding (+2.6%), and E-finance (+1.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>ADIB (-2.7%), Emaar Misr (-2.4%), and Abou Kir Fertilizers (-1.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some economists predict that Trump\u2019s tariffs will put extra pressure on inflation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":659087,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[984,72,122,132],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-659086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-donald-trump","tag-enterpriseam","tag-planet-finance","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5099b48a-f495-4d80-b772-5e127d3bfa13","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1405.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"What 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