{"id":659077,"date":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/21\/goldman-sachs-six-key-takeaways-on-egypts-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T00:00:00","slug":"goldman-sachs-six-key-takeaways-on-egypts-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/21\/goldman-sachs-six-key-takeaways-on-egypts-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs\u2019 six key takeaways on Egypt\u2019s economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs off<\/strong>ers its predictions for Egypt\u2019s economy:<\/strong> Goldman Sachs wrapped its investor trip to Egypt<\/a> at the end of last week to meet with policymakers, analysts, and local market participants with six \u201ckey takeaways\u201d on the path they think the Egyptian economy is going in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

#1- An improved policy mix:<\/strong> The new Madbouly government has injected \u201ca new sense of urgency\u201d to Egypt\u2019s policymaking, with a renewed focus on addressing the economy\u2019s low export base by encouraging private sector investment, Goldman Sachs\u2019 Farouk Soussa wrote. The finance and investment ministries have been part of a coordinated effort to reduce fees, tariffs, and other burdens placed on investors, all while streamlining the process<\/a> of collecting fees from corporates, with some currently facing \u201cdemands for payment from up to 67 different economic authorities\u201d and having their effective tax rate doubled to 45% in some cases, Soussa said. <\/p>\n

Egypt has also seen improvements in its trade policy,<\/strong> with an increased focus on reducing the amount of time that goods are held at ports to just two days<\/a> \u2014 down from 14 days previously \u2014 with the government looking to capitalize on Europe\u2019s move towards near-shoring and the larger re-routing of supply chains, according to Soussa. <\/p>\n

#2- Local sentiment remains \u201cpatchy\u201d:<\/strong> Conversations with local players in Egypt\u2019s economy indicated continued concern regarding the country\u2019s macro outlook. Many of the people the bank spoke to see the EGP weakening further against the greenback throughout 2025, penciling in predictions of the exchange rate reaching EGP 59\/USD by the end of the year. <\/p>\n

This, in turn, has created a high level of uncertainty over the inflation outlook for local <\/strong>play<\/strong>ers,<\/strong> with fiscal adjustments potentially leading to more inflationary pressures throughout the year. Local bankers and economists also see interest rates dropping by around 600 basis points to 20-21% by the end of the year \u2014 a far more hawkish prediction than Goldman\u2019s own forecast of 13% by year-end. All these factors, coupled with the ongoing erosion of real wages and uncertainty over the geopolitical environment have created larger concerns over Egypt\u2019s growth outlook in the short-term.<\/p>\n

#3- The state\u2019s progress on deeper structural reforms remains disappointing:<\/strong> The government\u2019s progress on implementing structural reforms has left a lot to be desired for local players \u2014 particularly in reforms that pertain to the state\u2019s involvement in the economy and the creation of a level playing field with private sector players, Soussa wrote. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, progress on the government\u2019s privatization program \u201cremains relatively<\/strong> w<\/strong>eak,\u201d <\/strong>Soussa added. The government has argued that many of its assets have suffered from \u201cyears of mismanagement and poor accounting\/record-keeping\u201d \u2014 which could slow down the process of preparing some of these assets for sale \u2014 and that authorities are looking to \u201coptimise divestment opportunities in accordance with prevailing market conditions and priorities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

#4- Developments in our program with the IMF remain positive: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s ongoing program with the International Monetary Fund has remained on track, with Soussa writing that both parties are demonstrating a \u201cgenuine commitment\u201d to maintaining the success of the program. While a staff level agreement over our fourth review with the Fund has seen some setbacks, authorities told Goldman that the delay is down to \u201cthe desire of the Egyptian authorities to re-calibrate certain targets\u201d that would better reflect the \u201cevolution of the macro environment (particularly the external environment),\u201d and to ensure that the goals of the program remain achievable.<\/p>\n

Some risks remain, however: <\/strong>The IMF\u2019s push for significant fiscal consolidation through the removal of exemptions and the widening of the VAT base could safeguard Egypt\u2019s debt sustainability \u2014 but they could potentially cause wider inflationary pressures and slow growth further, especially if the state continues to delay the implementation of structural reforms that could counteract some of the effects of these policies, Soussa writes. <\/p>\n

#5- The investment outlook for the energy sector is mixed:<\/strong> While efforts at clearing arrears owed to international oil players and introducing fresh incentives to energy players represent positive developments, \u201cliquidity in the sector remains tight and the clearance of arrears slow and uneven, with smaller operators receiving less than larger ones,\u201d industry players told Goldman. In addition, some in the industry remain doubtful that production can return to previous highs without any significant discoveries, leading to a general view that the energy deficit will remain significant in the medium term.<\/p>\n

#6- More debt issuances expected in the first half of the year: <\/strong>The Finance Ministry is looking to raise some USD 3-4 bn in external debt issuances before the end of June, including eurobonds, green bonds, panda bonds and sukuk.<\/p>\n

Goldman\u2019s overall outlook for Egypt remains unchanged following the visit:<\/strong> The bank still sees deep rate cuts taking place across the year, maintaining its forecast of interest rates dropping to 13% by the end of the year. It also sees the exchange rate as \u201cwell-supported\u201d in the short-term, as a result of the reversal of \u201cfactors driving portfolio outflows in Q4 last year\u201d and subsequent surge of inflows with the start of the year, coupled with a pick-up in external issuance by the government, and further disbursements of funds from the IMF. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bank sees improvements to Egypt\u2019s overall policy mix<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":659078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,260],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-659077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-goldman-sachs","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f070a5ae-9df5-4383-aeb1-fe2e72eaec85","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/6\/1751.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Goldman Sachs\u2019 six key takeaways on Egypt\u2019s economy","related_issue":[659064],"teaser":"The bank sees improvements to Egypt\u2019s overall policy mix","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/1\/.e7925460-3bbf-46ab-9bfe-b6106851f5e6.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGoldman Sachs\u2019 six key takeaways on Egypt\u2019s economy - 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This will also be key\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2419.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596483,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/29\/goldman-sachs-sees-egypts-10-year-bonds-as-extremely-attractive-as-interest-rates-come-down\/","url_meta":{"origin":659077,"position":1},"title":"Goldman Sachs sees Egypt\u2019s 10-year bonds as \u201cextremely attractive\u201d as interest rates come down","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian 10-year bonds to remain \u201cextremely attractive\u201d as interest rates come down -Goldman Sachs: Egyptian 10-year bonds are an \u201cextremely attractive\u201d option for investors looking for higher yields and duration return as the country begins to cut its short-term interest rates, Goldman Sachs Vice President for MENA economics research Farouk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/1488.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546118,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/inflation-could-hit-17-this-year-on-the-back-of-the-devaluation-food-prices-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":659077,"position":2},"title":"Inflation could hit 17% this year on the back of the devaluation, food prices \u2013Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation could rise to 17% this year, \u201cbut most of it is transient,\u201d says Goldman Sachs: Inflation could climb as high as 17% this year thanks largely to the depreciation of the EGP and rising food prices, Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs\u2019 MENA economist, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:36).\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/389.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/22\/goldman-sachs-to-advise-efg-on-bid-by-fab-board-okays-start-of-due-diligence\/","url_meta":{"origin":659077,"position":3},"title":"Goldman Sachs to advise EFG on bid by FAB, board okays start of due diligence","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Goldman Sachs and law firm White & Case will advise EFG Hermes\u2019 board of directors on a takeover bid by First Bank of Abu Dhabi (FAB), EFG said in a regulatory filing (pdf) that confirmed reports earlier this week that it was planning to tap the international investment bank.The board\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "M&A WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"M&A WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/ma-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/313.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":616058,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/02\/28\/devaluation-unlikely-to-be-inflationary-says-goldman-sachs\/","url_meta":{"origin":659077,"position":4},"title":"Devaluation unlikely to be inflationary, says Goldman Sachs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Officials told Goldman Sachs that they expect an IMF agreement to be announced \u201cin the coming days\u201d","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/2712.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/17\/interest-rate-cuts-wont-dent-investors-enthusiasm-for-egypt-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":659077,"position":5},"title":"Interest rate cuts won\u2019t dent investors\u2019 enthusiasm for Egypt -Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EGP to stay strong, interest rate cuts won\u2019t dent carry trade enthusiasm for Egypt -Goldman: Bulge Bracket stalwart Goldman Sachs sounds optimistic about Egypt, writing in a recent report picked up by the local press that improved hard currency inflows will see a stable EGP \u2014 and predicting that an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed 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