{"id":658383,"date":"2025-01-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/09\/inflation-continues-its-downward-trend-in-december\/"},"modified":"2025-01-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-continues-its-downward-trend-in-december","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/09\/inflation-continues-its-downward-trend-in-december\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation continues its downward trend in December"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good afternoon folks, and happy Thursday. <\/strong>Read on for all the latest \u2014 and have a good weekend.<\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY TODAY<\/p>\n

#1- <\/strong>Another<\/strong> big dip in inflation augurs well for a CBE rate cut in 1Q: <\/strong>Annual headline urban inflation fell 1.4 percentage points to 24.1% in December, marking inflation\u2019s second drop in two months and Egypt\u2019s lowest inflation reading since December 2022, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Food and beverage price inflation \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 fell 4.3 percentage points throughout the month to an annual rate of 20.3%. <\/p>\n

We saw this coming:<\/strong> The fall in inflation was in line with expectations, with a Reuters poll of<\/a>13 analysts<\/a> projecting that inflation would fall to 24.2% in December \u2014 just 0.1 percentage point off the official figure. The new data bolster the case for beginning to unwind interest rates in 1Q \u2014 something the Central Bank of Egypt has said<\/a> it will only begin once \u201ca significant and sustained decline in inflation\u201d materializes.<\/p>\n

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#2- China\u2019s Asia-Potash eyes a USD 1.6 bn fertilizer complex in Upper Egypt: <\/strong>China\u2019s Asia-Potash International Investment<\/a> is planning to establish a phosphate fertilizer production complex in Egypt with investments of USD 1.6 bn in the first phase and between USD 7-10 bn across all phases, according to a General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) statement<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The details: <\/strong>The project, which will be established between the cities of Esna and Al Sibaiyya in Luxor and Aswan governorates, will see 2 mn tons of phosphate produced annually in its first phase, with production set to rise to 10 mn tons once all phases are complete. All of the complex\u2019s production will be earmarked for export to neighboring markets. <\/p>\n

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#3- SIC amends CIRA Education MTO: <\/strong>CIRA Education majority shareholder Social Impact Capital (SIC) has amended its mandatory tender offer (MTO) to buy up to 100% of CIRA Education\u2019s shares, with the Public Investment Fund-backed vehicle now offering a price-per-share of EGP 15.5, up from EGP 15.0<\/a> previously, according to a Financial Regulatory Authority statement (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The amendment also canceled a clause that stipulates the voluntary delisting of CIRA\u2019s<\/strong> shares<\/strong> within two years of the acquisition\u2019s execution, with the company subsequently lowering its purchase offer to buy up to 90% of CIRA\u2019s shares \u2014 approximately 226 mn shares by our math. The revised share price and new 90% target bring the total value of the transaction to up to EGP 3.5 bn by our math, down from EGP 4.26 bn previously.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.) <\/p>\n

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD<\/p>\n

It\u2019s another busy day in the global press,<\/strong> with int\u2019l headlines continuing to be dominated by the Los Angeles fires that have now displaced<\/a> over 100k people.<\/p>\n

Lebanon looks set to select Joseph Aoun as the country\u2019s first president since October <\/strong>2022 today,<\/strong> after Hezbollah\u2019s preferred candidate Suleiman Frangieh withdrew his candidacy and threw his support behind the Lebanese army chief. While Hezbollah has long held reservations about an Aoun presidency, three sources speaking to Reuters<\/a> suggested that enough lawmakers were expected to back Aoun\u2019s candidacy for him to reach the 86-vote threshold required for him to win office.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere in the world, <\/strong>a two-day bond selloff in the UK<\/a> has pushed yields on the country\u2019s 30-year bonds to a 26-year high, adding to concerns about the incumbent Labour government\u2019s planned public spending and tax hikes. On the other side of the pond, US president Joe Biden has announced a new \u2014 and presumably his final \u2014 set of restrictions<\/a> on the export of US-made semiconductor chips.<\/p>\n

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