{"id":657567,"date":"2024-12-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/23\/cbe-to-keep-rates-unchanged-on-thursday-analysts-say\/"},"modified":"2024-12-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T00:00:00","slug":"cbe-to-keep-rates-unchanged-on-thursday-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/23\/cbe-to-keep-rates-unchanged-on-thursday-analysts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, analysts say"},"content":{"rendered":"

MPC to keep rates unchanged in its last meeting of the year, analysts tell <\/strong>EnterpriseAM:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt is expected to once again leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Thursday, with analysts pointing to ongoing price volatility, mixed signals in inflationary trends, and the depreciation of the EGP against the greenback as factors that could influence the decision, according to our interest rate poll. All ten of the analysts and economists we surveyed see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holding rates steady.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Where rates currently stand:<\/strong> The overnight deposit rate stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 27.75%. Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike<\/a> following a surprise monetary policy meeting in March, which was soon followed by the float of the EGP and the approval of a larger loan package from the IMF.<\/p>\n

The central bank hasn\u2019t made any changes to interest rates since its March rate hike<\/strong> \u2014 leaving them untouched when it met in May, July, September, October, and most recently in November<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The MPC will have to take into account November\u2019s surprising slowdown in inflation: <\/strong>Annual headline urban inflation dropped a full percentage point<\/a> to 25.5% in November, marking the first fall in inflation in three months and Egypt\u2019s lowest inflation reading since December 2022. <\/p>\n

Analysts see this slowdown in inflation carrying over to next month: <\/strong>\u201cInflation is on a gradual downward trajectory, with more pronounced declines expected by February 2025,\u201d economist Mona Bedair told us. Meanwhile, HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir said that her firm expects December\u2019s inflation reading to \u201cdecelerate to 24.1% y-o-y and 0.2% m-o-m, on the back of relatively lower to stable vegetable and fruit prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

But other pressures may prompt the CBE to hold off on rate cuts just a bit longer: <\/strong>Multiple analysts noted that inflationary pressures remain on the horizon \u2014 November\u2019s unexpected drop in inflation notwithstanding. \u201c[November\u2019s] decline was mainly driven by vegetable items \u2014 namely tomatoes \u2014 which are not core inflation items. Also, some price hikes such as the recent telecom hikes<\/a> are still passing through inflation readings, which might hinder a considerable decline in the annual inflation reading in December,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos senior analyst Esraa Ahmed told EnterpriseAM. In addition, anticipated increases in fuel and electricity prices could spur further inflation, with rate cuts poised to \u201cincrease inflationary pressures and hinder the central bank's plan to reduce the inflation rate to its target levels,\u201d economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us. <\/p>\n

The depreciation of the EGP against the USD will also create some inflationary <\/strong>pressures<\/strong>, EGBank board member Mohamed Abdelaal told us. This, alongside an unfavorable geopolitical environment, provides another reason for the CBE to hold off a bit before hitting the easing button, Ahmed said.<\/p>\n

Our continued reliance on hot money may also throw a wrench into the MPC\u2019s decision: <\/strong>\u201cHigh interest rates contribute to attracting foreign capital to government debt instruments such as treasury bills, supporting FX reserves,\u201d Abou El Fotouh noted, adding that lower interest rates could lead to foreign capital outflows, putting pressure on the exchange rate. Indeed, outflows are already contributing to a more complicated FX outlook, Bedair said. <\/p>\n

Most analysts still see the bank cutting rates in the first quarter of next year: <\/strong>Analysts were mostly in agreement that the CBE would begin cutting rates in 1Q 2025, with some adding the caveat that inflation rates must continue to decline sustainably while the EGP exchange rate stabilizes. However, \u201cthe cumulative impact of monetary tightening decisions and the positive base effect\u201d are collectively expected to prompt the bank to begin loosening rates by the first quarter of next year, Abou El Fotouh said.<\/p>\n

Not everyone\u2019s so sure, however:<\/strong> Ostoul Securities Brokerage\u2019s research head Mohamed Abdel Hakim provided a dissenting view, telling us he believes the CBE \u201cwill start cutting interest rates during the second quarter of 2025,\u201d citing \u201cthe base effect and inflationary pressures resulting from fiscal tightening measures\u201d as among the reasons for the delay.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Most analysts expect the CBE to hold off on rate cuts until 1Q 2025 despite an unexpectedly large dip in November\u2019s inflation reading<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":657568,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-657567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"03e20b44-7814-47d5-81e8-99f88688b664","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/2023.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Analysts 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