{"id":657239,"date":"2024-12-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/17\/more-volatility-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2024-12-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T00:00:00","slug":"more-volatility-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/17\/more-volatility-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"More volatility in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Expect more swings across stock markets in 2025<\/strong> on the back of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding US president-elect Donald Trump\u2019s tax and tariff policies, Bloomberg<\/a> cites strategists at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Spain\u2019s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) as saying. JPMorgan sees the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) averaging around 16, slightly higher than 15.5 across 2024 \u2014 still, it believes macro indicators suggest volatility will be higher, with data pointing to a VIX level of around 19 on average.<\/p>\n

Markets could see long bouts of calm interrupted by \u201cfat tails\u201d <\/strong>\u2014 extreme market swings \u2014 with BofA forecasting a fivefold increase in market fragility shocks in the S&P 500 Index compared to the past 80 years, with a major index shock likely on the cards. <\/p>\n

That trend has already started: <\/strong>\u201cThe magnitude of fragility shocks in the largest S&P stocks reached 30+ year extremes in 2024 with few signs of dissipating if the AI boom continues,\u201d BofA strategists including Benjamin Bowler wrote.<\/p>\n

Volatility will likely be concentrated in the first half of the year:<\/strong> \u201cWe could go straight into a relatively elevated equity volatility environment in the first half of next year,\u201d UBS Group\u2019s head of US equity-derivatives research Max Grinacoff said. Certainty around Trump\u2019s policy direction later in the year could later lower bond volatility, according to UBS. <\/p>\n

But some expect volatility to last through to 2026: <\/strong>Societe Generale SA strategists forecast rising volatility through 2025 and 2026, recommending buying the dips in volatility.<\/p>\n

Helping suppress volatility in the market: <\/strong>Quantitative selling strategies such as zero-day to-expiry options by banks and EFTs to exploit returns are pushing investors towards long gamma trading \u2014 meaning that dealers are making moves against the prevailing market action to hedge their risks, thereby suppressing volatility. Volatility selling is steady in the US and Europe, while in Asia, the demand for volatility is expected to rise, especially in China and Hong Kong, driven by economic pressures and stimulus measures.<\/p>\n

Heightened volatility makes an \u201cactive investment approach, diversification, and strong risk management\u201d essential<\/strong>, Goldman Sachs also said in its Asset Management 2025 Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>. The investment bank believes that investment-grade bonds are an ideal option in 2025, as rate cuts continue \u2014 albeit at different timelines. The investment bank also sees opportunity in US stocks and in emerging markets. <\/p>\n

It also recommends investing in small-cap stocks to benefit from their large valuation discounts<\/strong>. Smaller companies are expected to be more resilient in light of tariffs in comparison to their larger peers, due to larger domestic revenue sources and shorter supply chains, the report says.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mixed<\/strong> once again as traders await the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision this week, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei and Topix both up and South Korea\u2019s Kospi and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng down. Over on Wall Street, futures point to a lower open, after the Dow Jones fell yesterday to log its longest losing streak since 2018.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,799<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +23.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.86<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,097<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,280<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,048<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+4.5% (YTD: +24.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,074<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +27.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,262<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +6.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,947<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +9.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,670<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 105,823<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.1% (YTD: +151%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.9 bn (6.9% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 23.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>GB Corp (+4.4%), TMG Holding (+2.5%), and Emaar Misr (+1.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Cleopatra Hospitals (-2.4%), Oriental Weavers (-1.6%), and Elsewedy Electric (-1.5%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

The Financial Regulatory Authority has given its approval for Ezz Steel to begin <\/strong>procedures for <\/strong>delisting<\/a><\/strong> its shares from the EGX<\/strong>, with the board-approved decision to now be put forward to a general assembly, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The details: <\/strong>Under the proposal, objecting shareholders can sell their shares back to the company at either the highest closing price during the month preceding the board of directors\u2019 statement \u2014 EGP 118.98 per share \u2014 or the fair value of the company\u2019s shares as determined by an independent financial advisor registered with the FRA. The board has authorized a delisting price of up to EGP 120 per share, with the company retaining the right to void the delisting should the price per share exceed that threshold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Geopolitical tensions and tax and tariff policies are the main catalysts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":657240,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[102,984,72,119,122,132],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-657239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-donald-trump","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"32d4935f-a8f0-468a-8f4d-3bd1a2301f38","order":"14","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/1534.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"More volatility in 2025","related_issue":[657215],"teaser":"Geopolitical tensions and tax and tariff policies are the main catalysts","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/12\/.74a7f9d7-977a-4c06-8803-3e2bc720ed21.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nMore volatility in 2025 - 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Shares in developed markets also took it on the chin after China said it would hike tariffs on some US 60 bn worth of US imports. Beijing was reacting to Washington\u2019s decision last week to impose\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":702767,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/05\/17\/cerebras-pops-on-first-day-of-trading-in-biggest-year-for-ai-in-capital-markets-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":657239,"position":1},"title":"Cerebras pops on first day of trading in biggest year for AI in capital markets yet","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The IPO is the first of several potential blockbusters that could make this the year of AI for capital markets","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2026\/5\/880.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575380,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/13\/enterprise-explains-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":657239,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Explains: The VIX","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Enterprise Explains: The VIX. Cast your mind back to March of this year. Global markets were spiraling the drain as investors freaked out over the coronavirus. Equities suffered one of the most rapid descents in history, yields on US treasuries collapsed to record lows, and the short-term funding markets seized\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise explains"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise explains","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/enterprise-explains\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/130.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589099,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/21\/em-currency-volatility-on-the-decline-gulf-state-firms-go-shopping\/","url_meta":{"origin":657239,"position":3},"title":"EM currency volatility on the decline + Gulf state firms go shopping","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"One measure of EM currency volatility is at its lowest since October 2021","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1074.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550413,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/26\/wall-street-bankers-wary-of-what-the-future-holds\/","url_meta":{"origin":657239,"position":4},"title":"Wall Street bankers wary of what the future holds","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Wall Street bankers reiterated their warnings about the global economy at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh yesterday, Reuters reports. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said the Fed may have to raise interest rates beyond 4.5-4.75% if consumer demand and the labor market holds. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, meanwhile, said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543679,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/13\/planet-finance-stocks-are-down-oil-is-up-as-ukraine-crisis-spurs-volatility\/","url_meta":{"origin":657239,"position":5},"title":"Planet Finance: Stocks are down + oil is up as Ukraine crisis spurs volatility","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks plunge, oil prices rally over Ukraine invasion concerns: Stocks ended last week in the red, while oil prices soared on the back of fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Brent crude futures settled at USD 94.44 a barrel on Friday as the threat of war in Ukraine pressured\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/657239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=657239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/657239\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/657215"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/657240"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=657239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=657239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=657239"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=657239"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=657239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}