{"id":656959,"date":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/12\/a-us-trade-war-could-force-the-ecb-to-bring-rates-back-down-to-emergency-levels\/"},"modified":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","slug":"a-us-trade-war-could-force-the-ecb-to-bring-rates-back-down-to-emergency-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/12\/a-us-trade-war-could-force-the-ecb-to-bring-rates-back-down-to-emergency-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"A US trade war could force the ECB to bring rates back down to emergency levels"},"content":{"rendered":"

The European Central Bank (ECB) could move to slash interest rates to<\/strong> \u201cemergency levels\u201d<\/strong> to mitigate <\/strong>the impact of a US-led trade war<\/strong>, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. These potential cuts would come just two years after the ECB ended eight years of negative rates aimed at combating post-pandemic inflation.<\/p>\n

The trade war in a nutshell: <\/strong>Donald Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d trade policies are shaking up global markets. Trump floated a 60% tariff<\/a> on Chinese goods \u2014 and later, promised an additional 10% tariff \u2014 and a 10% tariff on imports from other countries, along with a separate tariffs<\/a> on Canadian and Mexican goods. <\/p>\n

The EUR\u2019s not loving this:<\/strong> Since late September, the EUR has dropped more than 5%, now trading around USD 1.06. Investors are already pricing in potential ECB moves, with swaps markets predicting the deposit rate could fall to 1.75% from 3.25%. If things get worse, Pimco\u2019s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Andrew Balls, expects even steeper cuts, warning of a dive into \u201cemergency levels of policy rates.\u201d<\/p>\n

Across the Channel:<\/strong> The UK isn\u2019t immune to trade war effects. Investors anticipate the Bank of England will slash rates by three-quarters of a point by the end of 2025, bringing interest rates to 4%. <\/p>\n

US financial moderation isn't completely off the table:<\/strong> Trump\u2019s nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary could signal a shift toward more measured economic policies. Bessent has advocated for gradual implementation of policy changes, which has eased some market concerns. This perception of moderation has contributed to a slight retreat in the USD from its post-election high.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- A positive <\/strong>US inflation report<\/a><\/strong> showing no significant movement is the<\/strong> latest economic data to indicate a rate cut <\/strong>from the Federal Reserve is likely when it meets next week, Reuters<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the green<\/strong>, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei, South Korea\u2019s Kospi, and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng all up, tracking a rally on Wall Street that saw the Nasdaq close at a record high. Futures, however, slipped slightly following the news.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,739<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +23.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 50.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 50.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,149<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +1.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9271<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -3.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4795<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.03% (YTD: +18.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6084<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +27.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8302<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +7.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4959<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +9.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2753.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 101,784.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.1% (YTD: +138.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 3.7 bn (36.4% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 23.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In <\/strong>the green: <\/strong>Eastern Company (+4.3%), Oriental Weavers (+2.1%), and Palm Hills Development (+1.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>GB Corp (-3.4%), Juhayna (-2.6%), and Emaar Misr (-2.3%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ECB\u2019s deposit rate could fall to 1.75%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":656960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[984,72,8864,119,349,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-656959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-donald-trump","tag-enterpriseam","tag-european-central-bank-ecb","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7419e974-2e8b-42f9-9c69-6dbb482dba22","order":"15","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/1122.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A US trade war could force the ECB to bring rates back down to emergency levels","related_issue":[656933],"teaser":"The ECB\u2019s deposit rate could fall to 1.75%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/12\/.43aae8ed-f94e-403c-8c54-fbc8e8daf7ab.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nA US trade war could force the ECB to bring rates back down to emergency levels - 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Officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) are mulling a slower pace of rate hikes than the 50-basis point increases for February and March that ECB President Christine Lagarde penciled in last month, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed bank officials it says have knowledge of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/308.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586137,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/07\/federal-reserve-raises-interest-rates-by-another-25-bps-despite-regional-banking-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":656959,"position":1},"title":"Federal Reserve raises interest rates by another 25 bps despite regional banking crisis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Incoming inflation and jobs data + the plight of shaky regional lenders to determine what happens next","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/294.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":659778,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/02\/02\/european-central-bank-cuts-rates-amid-stalled-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":656959,"position":2},"title":"European Central Bank cuts rates amid stalled growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 February 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets expect at least three more rate cuts this year","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/1122.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547427,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/21\/em-corporate-bonds-are-holding-their-own-no-eurozone-debt-crisis-take-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":656959,"position":3},"title":"EM corporate bonds are holding their own + No eurozone debt crisis take 2?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"EM sovereign debt might not be doing so great right now. Corporate debt on the other hand\u2026: Emerging-market corporate bonds are holding up against a wave of interest rate hikes around the world, faring better than high-yield debt and equities in the US, Bloomberg reports. 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The bank raised its three key rates in a bid to \u201cdampen demand\u201d and \u201cguard against the risk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567791,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/07\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-7-december-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":656959,"position":5},"title":"What the markets are doing on 7 December 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The EGX30 rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of EGP 1.6 bn (18.5% above the 90-day average). Domestic investors were net sellers. 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