{"id":655843,"date":"2024-11-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/25\/a-stronger-usd-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-market-bonds\/"},"modified":"2024-11-25T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T00:00:00","slug":"a-stronger-usd-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-market-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/25\/a-stronger-usd-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-market-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"A stronger USD could spell trouble for emerging market bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investors are warning that a strong USD under the approaching Trump administration<\/strong> could lead to weaker returns in emerging market bonds<\/strong> \u2014 a line of thought that has prompted investors to pull some USD 5 bn from funds investing in USD- and local currency-denominated EM bonds during the first half of November, the Financial Times<\/a> reports, citing data from JPMorgan.<\/p>\n

Investors are continuing to redirect their attention toward the greenback,<\/strong> Wall Street stocks, and the so-called \u201cTrump trades,\u201d as analysts predict incoming tax cuts and tariffs to fuel inflation \u2014 bumping the USD and Treasury yields higher. Ten-year treasury yields have risen from 4.29 to 4.39 per cent since Trump\u2019s election win, while the USD is up against its peers<\/p>\n

US tariffs could cause additional pressures on emerging markets\u2019 local currencies due to <\/strong>lower demand for their exports<\/strong>, which could lessen returns on local currency bonds, investors and analysts warn, according to the salmon-colored paper. \u201cAll of this is going to be negative for emerging markets,\u201d GAM EM debt manager Paul McNamara told the publication.<\/p>\n

But a stronger USD under Trump is far from guaranteed<\/strong>, as the Trump administration's plans for \u201cfiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy and exchange rate outcomes are incompatible with each other,\u201d argues Quincy Institute senior research fellow Karthik Sankaran. Over time, the economic policies of the incoming government could weaken the USD, but this may be too late for EMs to dodge forecasts of exchange rate pressures, Sankaran adds.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are kicking off the day in early trading in the green<\/strong>, led by Korea\u2019s Kospi at 1.5%, Japan\u2019s Nikkei at 1.4%, along with Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng and the mainland\u2019s Shanghai index both at 0.3%.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,397<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +22.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.73<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,865<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9232<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: -3.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4724<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +16.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5969<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +25.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8262<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +6.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4789<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +5.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 75.17<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-6.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2737.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 97.317.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +129.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.8% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 2.4 bn (43.2% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 22.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>B Investments Holding (+2.6%), Elsewedy Electric (+1.1%), and Faisal Islamic Bank -USD (+1.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Ezz Steel (-2.5%), Palm Hills Development (-2.3%), and Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (-2.2%).<\/p>\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Juhayna will merge four of its subsidiaries<\/strong> \u2014 Elmasreya for Dairy Products, Eldawleya Modern Food Industries, Egyptian Food Industries, and Al Marwa Food Industries \u2014 into the parent company after its board greenlit the move, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The decision will be presented to the company\u2019s extraordinary general assembly for approval. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investors have pulled some USD 5 bn from EM bonds in the first half of the month<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":655844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[7106,115,72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-655843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"394d409c-6a28-4fc7-b69b-90f371d2b269","order":"15","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/2273.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A stronger USD could spell trouble for emerging market bonds","related_issue":[655817],"teaser":"Investors have pulled some USD 5 bn from EM bonds in the first half of the month","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/11\/.54a10311-08cb-45af-9b62-677c224b3fb7.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nA stronger USD could spell trouble for emerging market bonds - 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The USD strengthened against other currencies during the first week of 2021, putting upward pressure on yields (which means lower bond prices), notes the business\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559338,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/18\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-18-january-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":655843,"position":2},"title":"What the markets are doing on 18 January 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"EM currencies under pressure as greenback enjoys Biden bounce: Emerging-market currencies are coming under pressure as incoming US president Joe Biden\u2019s pledge to pass USD 1.9 tn in fresh stimulus sends the USD on a two-week tear, Bloomberg says. EM currencies, in turn, logged losses after having ended 2020 with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560556,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/03\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-3-march-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":655843,"position":3},"title":"What the markets are doing on 3 March 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"EM bonds are likely to continue to oscillate between rallies and sell-offs for the coming months, BlackRock\u2019s Head of Emerging Market Debt Sergio Trigo Paz tells Bloomberg, as investors respond to an increase in US treasury yields and stimulus programs in emerging markets taper out.2021 isn\u2019t 2013, he says: Despite\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562805,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/07\/what-the-markets-are-doing-on-7-june-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":655843,"position":4},"title":"What the markets are doing on 7 June 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Some foreign investors are starting to reposition their EM portfolios in anticipation of an end to US stimulus measures. 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