{"id":655122,"date":"2024-11-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/13\/china-braces-for-trade-war-2-0-with-some-mena-markets-poised-to-gain\/"},"modified":"2024-11-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T00:00:00","slug":"china-braces-for-trade-war-2-0-with-some-mena-markets-poised-to-gain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/13\/china-braces-for-trade-war-2-0-with-some-mena-markets-poised-to-gain\/","title":{"rendered":"China braces for trade war 2.0, with some MENA markets poised to gain"},"content":{"rendered":"

China is bracing for a renewed trade war with the US \u2014<\/strong> but the fallout could offer a silver <\/strong>lining for our corner of the world:<\/strong> As China faces another round of tariffs from US president-elect Donald Trump\u2019s incoming administration, some expect the world\u2019s second largest economy to double down on its export industries. While economists believe such a move would allow China absorb a significant portion of the tariffs\u2019 hit to its GDP, the combined effect could have an added upside for some of us here in the MENA region \u2014 cheaper imported Chinese goods coupled with stronger regional currencies to buy them with.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s most likely response to US tariffs? Opening the fiscal taps.<\/strong> An overwhelming majority of economists surveyed this week by Bloomberg<\/a> expect the Chinese government to widen its budget deficit next year, with an emphasis on shoring up key sectors like housing and advanced manufacturing. China could also seek to develop their trade ties with other trade partners \u2014 though they may risk backlash as cheaper Chinese exports undercut domestic manufacturing.<\/p>\n

Analysts also widely expect China to allow its currency to devalue: <\/strong>China\u2019s CNY is already feeling the heat of incoming tariffs, with the CNY falling to 7.25 against the USD on Tuesday \u2014 the weakest it\u2019s been since August. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg penciled in a fall of anywhere between 7.3-8 to the greenback next year, with analysts split over whether China will attempt to prop up the currency in a bid to discourage capital outflows.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s counterpunch:<\/strong> US agricultural exports, including soybeans, beef, and corn, are likely to be the first targets of Chinese counter-tariffs, reprising tactics from China\u2019s last trade war with Trump. These moves are also likely to hit the hardest in farms and factories in the US\u2019 Midwest and south, which are key constituencies of support for the incoming president.<\/p>\n

While they\u2019re duking it out, MENA could benefit: <\/strong>JP Morgan analysts speaking to Reuters<\/a> expect a stronger USD, higher US bond yields, and shifting trade policies to set the stage for a rally in MENA markets. The bank highlighted that USD-pegged economies in the MENA region \u2014 including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, and Bahrain \u2014 stand to benefit more than other emerging markets, as they will have stronger currencies with which to buy relatively cheaper Chinese goods. Egypt and other non-USD-pegged economies in the region could also see the benefits of lower import prices, which given the relatively low development of manufacturing in the region are less likely to hurt overall growth.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are starting the day in the red in early trading this morning<\/strong>, broadly tracking losses in US markets as the post-election Trump trade euphoria fizzled out yesterday. Korea\u2019s Kospi is down -1.5%, while Japan\u2019s Nikkei is at -1.4% and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is -1.0%.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,582<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +26.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 49.16<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.26<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,048<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,420<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -1.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,701<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +15.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,984<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +25.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +3.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,745<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.3% (YTD: +4.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 71.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.91<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,606.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 88,175.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +109.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 fell 0.1% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.5 bn (6.5% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 26.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -EGP (+7.0%), Credit Agricole (+4.2%), and AMOC (+4.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Cleopatra Hospitals (-2.9%), Juhayna (-2.9%), and B Investments Holding (-2.4%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economists expect China to expand its budget deficit in response to Trump\u2019s trade policies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":655123,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[116,72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-655122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-china","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"33f9a632-1261-4794-a6b4-a241c71a56c4","order":"14","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/1176.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"China braces for trade war 2.0, with some MENA markets poised to gain","related_issue":[655097],"teaser":"Economists expect China to expand its budget deficit in response to Trump\u2019s trade policies","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/11\/.7974cd1b-61bf-450b-8d45-386995d1cbc3.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nChina braces for trade war 2.0, with some MENA markets poised to gain - 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