{"id":654946,"date":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/11\/inflation-rises-for-the-third-consecutive-month-to-26-5\/"},"modified":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-rises-for-the-third-consecutive-month-to-26-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/11\/inflation-rises-for-the-third-consecutive-month-to-26-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation rises for the third consecutive month to 26.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation conti<\/strong>nues inching up:<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation rose 0.1 percentage point to 26.5% in October, extending its upward trajectory for a third consecutive month, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. The increase follows a modest 0.2 percentage point rise in September to 26.4%<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Driving the increase: <\/strong>\u201cHalf of the basket\u2019s items recorded deceleration, other remained flat with only three items recording notable annual acceleration, namely clothing & footwear, housing & fuel, and medical care,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos analyst Esraa Ahmed wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

Food and beverage inflation continued to retreat: <\/strong>Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 continued to rise but at a softer rate of 27.3% y-o-y in October, down 0.4 percentage points from a month prior. On a m-o-m basis, food prices climbed only 1.1%, down from September\u2019s 2.6%. <\/p>\n

Despite the slight jump, October\u2019s reading comes much lower than expected: <\/strong>A Reuters poll of 17 analysts expected headline inflation to accelerate 0.6 percentage points<\/a> to 27.0% y-o-y in October, with fingers firmly pointed at fuel price hikes that came into effect during the month and education costs. Closer to the mark was economist Mona Bedair, penciling in 26.8% in a note<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Inflation is yet to feel the pinch from rising fuel and education costs: <\/strong>While the mid-October fuel price hike<\/a> of up to 17% and rising education costs were expected to weigh heavily on October\u2019s inflation reading, their impact has largely been deferred. Education-related expenses will be reflected in February\u2019s 2025 data, coinciding with second semester school fees, Naeem Holding\u2019s Hesham Hamdey told Asharq Business<\/a>. Bedair similarly added that \u201cthe fuel basket adjustments do not appear to reflect the recent mid-October fuel price hikes.\u201d <\/p>\n

Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 continued to<\/strong> slow<\/strong>, with the Central Bank of Egypt recording<\/a> an annual core inflation of 24.4% in October, down 0.6 percentage points from the month before. However, monthly core inflation continued its upward trend, picking up 0.3 percentage points to 1.3% throughout the month.<\/p>\n

Analysts are already split on which way inflation will go in November: <\/strong>Bedair expects inflation \u201cto begin a downward trajectory in November, with pressures expected to ease further,\u201d despite that \u201cnext month\u2019s reading will still reflect the impact of the recent increases in fuel and tobacco prices.\u201d Bloomberg<\/a> on the other hand, sees inflation \u201clikely\u201d picking up in November as recent fuel price hikes will be fully reflected in the new data set, bolstered by cigarette price hikes<\/a> from tobacco giant Eastern Company. Some others, including Hamdey, see falling fruit and vegetable prices as potentially offsetting additional pressures from fuel price hikes.<\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures could ease going forwards if back-to-back subsidy cuts get put on <\/strong>pause: <\/strong>The government is in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to delay the implementation of the plan to phase out subsidies. Talks are currently underway to adjust the timeline and targets<\/a> of previously agreed reforms as the Fund carries out its fourth loan review<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect rate cuts before the new year:<\/strong> October\u2019s inflation data could strengthen the case for the Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting<\/a> when it meets later this month, most analysts seemed to agree. Ahmed argued that the new numbers \u201cunderscore our view of stable states rates \u2018until further notice.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Food and beverage prices continued to rise but at a softer rate of 27.3% y-o-y<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":654947,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-654946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4fbdb675-e769-438a-ba63-11d1f9466840","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/880.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Inflation 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/2603.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565438,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/inflation-uptick-as-ramadan-approaches\/","url_meta":{"origin":654946,"position":3},"title":"Inflation uptick as Ramadan approaches","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation accelerated slightly to 4.8% in March, up from 4.6% in February, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. Annual urban inflation stood steady to 4.5% in March. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% m-o-m, compared to a 0.2% monthly rise in February. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":666544,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/06\/10\/inflation-rises-once-again-in-may-to-reach-16-8\/","url_meta":{"origin":654946,"position":4},"title":"Inflation rises once again in May to reach 16.8%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 June 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":675268,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/11\/inflation-accelerates-for-first-time-in-four-months\/","url_meta":{"origin":654946,"position":5},"title":"Inflation accelerates for first time in four months","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 November 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation rose to 12.5% in October","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/735.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=654946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654946\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/654941"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/654947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=654946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=654946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=654946"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=654946"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=654946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}