{"id":654946,"date":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/11\/inflation-rises-for-the-third-consecutive-month-to-26-5\/"},"modified":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-rises-for-the-third-consecutive-month-to-26-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/11\/inflation-rises-for-the-third-consecutive-month-to-26-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation rises for the third consecutive month to 26.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Inflation conti<\/strong><strong>nues inching up:<\/strong> Annual headline urban inflation rose 0.1 percentage point to 26.5% in October, extending its upward trajectory for a third consecutive month, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. The increase follows a modest 0.2 percentage point rise in <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/c7c709e1-e024-43f6-891f-8690610c2724\/%253cmark%253einflation%253c%2Fmark%253e-accelerates-for-a-second-month-in-september-to-26.4%2525\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">September to 26.4%<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Driving the increase: <\/strong>\u201cHalf of the basket\u2019s items recorded deceleration, other remained flat with only three items recording notable annual acceleration, namely clothing &amp; footwear, housing &amp; fuel, and medical care,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos analyst Esraa Ahmed wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Food and beverage inflation continued to retreat: <\/strong>Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation \u2014 continued to rise but at a softer rate of 27.3% y-o-y in October, down 0.4 percentage points from a month prior. On a m-o-m basis, food prices climbed only 1.1%, down from September\u2019s 2.6%. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Despite the slight jump, October\u2019s reading comes much lower than expected: <\/strong>A Reuters poll of 17 analysts <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ba456530-84e8-4f51-b12d-40a44eb76292\/old-rent-law-set-for-an-overhaul%3F\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">expected headline inflation to accelerate 0.6 percentage points<\/a> to 27.0% y-o-y in October, with fingers firmly pointed at fuel price hikes that came into effect during the month and education costs. Closer to the mark was economist Mona Bedair, penciling in 26.8% in a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7261291583730290688\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">note<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation is yet to feel the pinch from rising fuel and education costs: <\/strong>While the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/2e1e29b9-af1f-412d-9492-354ca6e76353\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">mid-October fuel price hike<\/a> of up to 17% and rising education costs were expected to weigh heavily on October\u2019s inflation reading, their impact has largely been deferred. Education-related expenses will be reflected in February\u2019s 2025 data, coinciding with second semester school fees, Naeem Holding\u2019s Hesham Hamdey told <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.asharqbusiness.com\/financial-markets\/59970\/%D8%AA%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D8%B7%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%81-%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B6%D8%AE%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D9%83%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%B1\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Asharq Business<\/a>. Bedair similarly added that \u201cthe fuel basket adjustments do not appear to reflect the recent mid-October fuel price hikes.\u201d <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Annual core inflation \u2014 which excludes volatile items like food and fuel \u2014 continued to<\/strong><strong> slow<\/strong>, with the Central Bank of Egypt <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbe.org.eg\/en\/economic-research\/statistics\/inflation-rates\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">recording<\/a> an annual core inflation of 24.4% in October, down 0.6 percentage points from the month before. However, monthly core inflation continued its upward trend, picking up 0.3 percentage points to 1.3% throughout the month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Analysts are already split on which way inflation will go in November: <\/strong>Bedair expects inflation \u201cto begin a downward trajectory in November, with pressures expected to ease further,\u201d despite that \u201cnext month\u2019s reading will still reflect the impact of the recent increases in fuel and tobacco prices.\u201d <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-11-10\/egyptian-inflation-slightly-quickens-for-a-third-straight-month\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> on the other hand, sees inflation \u201clikely\u201d picking up in November as recent fuel price hikes will be fully reflected in the new data set, bolstered by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/4230aad9-3678-48a8-8585-c65e8a819820\/kazyon-to-fuel-morocco-expansion-plans-with-usd-30-mn-from-the-ifc\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">cigarette price hikes<\/a> from tobacco giant Eastern Company. Some others, including Hamdey, see falling fruit and vegetable prices as potentially offsetting additional pressures from fuel price hikes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflationary pressures could ease going forwards if back-to-back subsidy cuts get put on <\/strong><strong>pause: <\/strong>The government is in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to delay the implementation of the plan to phase out subsidies. Talks are currently underway to adjust the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f6a461ee-cdfc-4359-acbe-2c15eb7c414f\/%253cmark%253eimf%253c%2Fmark%253e-boss-is-visiting-next-week-ahead-of-fourth-review\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">timeline and targets<\/a> of previously agreed reforms as the Fund carries out its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/34a5b4ba-e7d0-46b6-a984-45db566a7c90\/imf-begins-its-fourth-review-of-egypt%25e2%2580%2599s-usd-8-bn-program\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">fourth loan review<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Don\u2019t expect rate cuts before the new year:<\/strong> October\u2019s inflation data could strengthen the case for the Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/c4bed02c-b3fa-4955-ae1b-a01331a235c6\/central-bank-holds%253cmark%253e-interest-rates%253c%2Fmark%253e-in-line-with-expectations\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting<\/a> when it meets later this month, most analysts seemed to agree. Ahmed argued that the new numbers \u201cunderscore our view of stable states rates \u2018until further notice.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Food and beverage prices continued to rise but at a softer rate of 27.3% y-o-y<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":654947,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-654946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4fbdb675-e769-438a-ba63-11d1f9466840","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/880.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Inflation in Egypt rises for the third consecutive month to 26.5%","related_issue":[654941],"teaser":"Food and beverage prices continued to rise but at a softer rate of 27.3% y-o-y","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/11\/.0ab440d0-1311-4a32-9082-ccf9705df9f9.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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Annual urban inflation stood steady to 4.5% in March. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.6% m-o-m, compared to a 0.2% monthly rise in February. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":654946,"position":1},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. 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