{"id":654452,"date":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/imf-lowers-mena-growth-forecast-amid-regional-conflicts-and-oil-cuts\/"},"modified":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","slug":"imf-lowers-mena-growth-forecast-amid-regional-conflicts-and-oil-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/imf-lowers-mena-growth-forecast-amid-regional-conflicts-and-oil-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF lowers MENA growth forecast amid regional conflicts and oil cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Middle East <\/strong>region\u2019s economic growth is expected to slow to 2.1% in <\/strong>2024<\/strong>, down from an earlier estimate of 2.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest regional economic outlook (pdf)<\/a>. Next year\u2019s growth forecast was also trimmed to 4%, driven by insufficient foreign direct investment amid regional wars and high debt levels in middle-income economies.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

The IMF attributed the slowdown to regional conflicts<\/strong>, particularly the escalated tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Sudan, impacting stability and potentially creating \u201clasting economic losses,\u201d according to the report \u2014 a projection echoed by the IMF\u2019s MENA and Central Asia director, Jihad Azour, in an interview with Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s some flexibility on structural reform, but not much:<\/strong> States around the conflict zone, including Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq, \u201cneed to be protective to preserve their macroeconomic stability,\u201d Azour said. However, \u201ccrucial structural reforms could face rising social discontent and political resistance, hindering policy execution and constraining growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oil cuts are also to blame: <\/strong>Oil production cuts imposed by OPEC+ are also squeezing revenues for oil-reliant MENA economies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The oil management alliance recently delayed a planned supply increase<\/a> to December, citing weak demand from China and increased production elsewhere.<\/p>\n

But the non-oil sector remains a bright spot:<\/strong> \u201cGrowth of the non-oil sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council has been resilient and has been driving the growth for the last couple of years,\u201d Azour said.<\/p>\n

Less gloomy on the global front: <\/strong>The IMF revised downwards its forecast for global growth in 2025 to 3.2%, a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from its July estimate<\/a>, on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,658<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +23.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 49.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.88<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.98<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,022<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0% (YTD: +0.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,349<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,621<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +13.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,729<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +20.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,177<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,878<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +7.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,749<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 69,271<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +64.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at Thursday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.0 bn (6.3% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 23.2% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Emaar Misr (+4.8%), Ezz Steel (+3.6%), and Abu Qir Fertilizers (+3.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Juhayna (-1.1%), Egypt Kuwait Holding - USD, and Eastern Company (-0.7%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IMF revised its growth forecast for the region downward to 2.1% this year, and 4% in 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":654453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[7106,104,72,119,272,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-654452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-imf","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"74647805-4d77-417e-b107-8eb824d4279a","order":"17","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/49.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF lowers MENA growth forecast amid regional conflicts and oil cuts","related_issue":[654422],"teaser":"The IMF revised its growth forecast for the region downward to 2.1% this year, and 4% in 2025","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/11\/.38ec7c3b-bd24-45d2-86ea-a3bcde8d620d.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIMF lowers MENA growth forecast amid regional conflicts and oil cuts - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/imf-lowers-mena-growth-forecast-amid-regional-conflicts-and-oil-cuts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMF lowers MENA growth forecast amid regional conflicts and oil cuts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The IMF revised its growth forecast for the region downward to 2.1% this year, and 4% in 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/imf-lowers-mena-growth-forecast-amid-regional-conflicts-and-oil-cuts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-03T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/49.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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admin","date":"3 November 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund also took note of our efforts toward fiscal balancing, including subsidy and tax reforms","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/2880.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":658906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/19\/imf-world-bank-cut-egypts-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":654452,"position":1},"title":"IMF, World Bank cut Egypt's growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF now sees the economy growing at a 3.6% clip during the current fiscal year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1175.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":664569,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/05\/04\/gaza-spillovers-reform-delays-weigh-on-egypts-growth-outlook-say-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":654452,"position":2},"title":"Gaza spillovers, reform delays weigh on Egypt\u2019s growth outlook, say IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 May 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF downgraded the MENA region's growth outlook to 2.6% for 2025","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1412.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594404,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/29\/egypt-still-expected-to-outperform-ems-regional-oil-importers-on-gdp-but-debt-pressure-is-acute-imf-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":654452,"position":3},"title":"Egypt still expected to outperform EMs, regional oil importers on GDP, but debt pressure is \u201cacute,\u201d IMF says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt still expected to outperform EMs, regional oil importers on GDP, but debt pressure is \u201cacute,\u201d IMF says: GDP growth across MENAP oil importers is expected to average at 3.6% in 2019 and 3.7% in 2020, the IMF said in its October 2019 Regional Economic Outlook (pdf). When excluding Pakistan\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1549.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":674020,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/10\/22\/imf-upgrades-our-fy-2025-26-growth-forecast-to-4-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":654452,"position":4},"title":"IMF upgrades our FY 2025-26 growth forecast to 4.5%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 October 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The upgrade was supported by the rise in inflows from remittances and an increase in tourism revenues","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/10\/1071.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":618622,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/04\/17\/imf-holds-its-growth-forecast-steady-for-egypt-for-the-current-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":654452,"position":5},"title":"IMF holds its growth forecast steady for Egypt for the current fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 April 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is the first time in several months that the IMF has not downgraded its growth forecast for Egypt","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/2\/94.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=654452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654452\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/654422"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/654453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=654452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=654452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=654452"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=654452"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=654452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}