{"id":654430,"date":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/fitch-upgrades-our-credit-rating-to-b-citing-greater-confidence-in-structural-reforms\/"},"modified":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-03T00:00:00","slug":"fitch-upgrades-our-credit-rating-to-b-citing-greater-confidence-in-structural-reforms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/03\/fitch-upgrades-our-credit-rating-to-b-citing-greater-confidence-in-structural-reforms\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch upgrades our credit rating to \u2018B\u2019 citing greater confidence in structural reforms"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ratings upgraded our credit rating from \u2018B-\u2019 to \u2018B\u2019 with a stable outlook for <\/strong>the first time since 2019<\/strong>, citing FX inflows from the USD 35 bn<\/a> Ras El Hekma agreement, our expanded USD 8 bn<\/a> IMF program, and the EU\u2019s EUR 7.4 bn<\/a> aid package, alongside greater confidence in the durability of our structural reforms, the credit ratings agency said in a statement<\/a>. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Our commitment to a flexible exchange rate played a key role:<\/strong> Fitch\u2019s report noted that limited intervention in FX markets since the EGP\u2019s float in March<\/a> has given the ratings agency \u201csomewhat greater confidence that the more flexible exchange rate policy will prove more durable than in the past.\u201d It also noted the country\u2019s replenished international reserves and a more positive debt outlook as among its reasons for the rating hike.<\/p>\n

Government efforts have helped:<\/strong> Fitch notes that government efforts including expanding the tax base, cutting subsidies, and limiting off-budget public investment have all moderately reduced risk to public finances. The report also noted a resilient banking sector as a key source of financing flexibility for the state.<\/p>\n

Still, the economy faces key challenges:<\/strong> The ratings agency was less sanguine about the potential impact of further regional conflict, which has already affected revenues through falling Suez Canal receipts<\/a>. Fitch noted that revenues from the Suez Canal are only expected to recover to around half of the FY 2022-23 level in FY 2025-26. \u201cSocial instability\u201d was also noted as a risk factor, with the ratings agency pointing to continued high inflation and structural challenges like youth unemployment as potentially limiting reform. <\/p>\n

Fitch still has concerns about our debt burden:<\/strong> Interest costs to general government revenue are projected to remain well above the 13.9% median for \u2018B\u2019-rated countries, with Fitch penciling in the country\u2019s interest to revenue cost for FY 2028-29 at around 37%, down from an expected high of 61% in FY 2024-25. The ratings agency expects a similar trend to hold for our debt-to-GDP ratio, anticipating it to fall to 78.9% by FY 2025-26 from 89.1% in FY 2023-24, but remain above the median \u2018B\u2019 rating of 56.4%.<\/p>\n

The ratings agency also weighed in on the potential renegotiation of our IMF agreement, <\/strong>writing that despite the government\u2019s \u201cnewly-stated intent to renegotiate some targets,\u201d it believes that the state \u201cremains broadly committed\u201d to the structural reforms agreed to as part of the agreement.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s going to get us our next rating upgrade? <\/strong>Fitch pointed to a narrowing current account deficit, higher FX reserves, continued exchange rate flexibility, and fiscal consolidation as key improvements that might lead to a ratings increase.<\/p>\n

The international press also had the story:<\/strong> Reuters<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ratings agency cited an inflow of FDI, our commitment to maintaining a flexible exchange rate, and fiscal consolidation as driving the decision<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":654431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,905],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-654430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fitch-ratings","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"42d85537-672f-4b27-b3df-0a70e3232317","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1034.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fitch upgrades our credit rating to \u2018B\u2019 citing greater confidence in structural reforms","related_issue":[654422],"teaser":"The ratings agency cited an inflow of FDI, our commitment to maintaining a flexible exchange rate, and fiscal consolidation as driving the decision","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/11\/.38ec7c3b-bd24-45d2-86ea-a3bcde8d620d.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch upgrades our credit rating to \u2018B\u2019 citing greater confidence in structural reforms - 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The catch: Our sovereign debt remains at risk of a downgrade if\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/327.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586887,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/18\/fitch-downgrades-credit-ratings-of-four-local-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":654430,"position":2},"title":"Fitch downgrades credit ratings of four local banks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The banks now have a rating of B, down from B+","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1032.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":654430,"position":3},"title":"S&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). The agencies attributed their affirmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556371,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/24\/fitch-ratings-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-outlook-stable\/","url_meta":{"origin":654430,"position":4},"title":"Fitch Ratings affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+; outlook stable","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at \u2018B+\u2019 with a stable outlook on Wednesday. The rating is supported by Egypt\u2019s \u201crecent track record of fiscal and economic reforms,\u201d coupled with its large economy, which has remained stable and resilient through the global health crisis, as \u201ccontinued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":655556,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/11\/20\/fitch-upgrades-four-egyptian-banks-credit-ratings-to-b-on-the-back-of-sovereign-credit-improvements\/","url_meta":{"origin":654430,"position":5},"title":"Fitch upgrades four Egyptian banks\u2019 credit ratings to B on the back of sovereign credit improvements","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 November 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch cited improved FX liquidity and a significant jump in net foreign assets","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/1913.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=654430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654430\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/654422"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/654431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=654430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=654430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=654430"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=654430"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=654430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}