{"id":653760,"date":"2024-10-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/22\/the-gains-party-on-wall-street-could-be-winding-down\/"},"modified":"2024-10-22T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T00:00:00","slug":"the-gains-party-on-wall-street-could-be-winding-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/22\/the-gains-party-on-wall-street-could-be-winding-down\/","title":{"rendered":"The (gains) party on Wall Street could be winding down"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the decade ahead, returns from the S&P 500 aren\u2019t expected to remain as high as they <\/strong>were in the past 10 years<\/strong>, according to two separate notes from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

Where the market stands now:<\/strong> With a two-year bull market under its belt, the S&P recently delivered its best 9M performance in 27 years, rising c.21% during the January-September period, according to market data<\/a>. Historically speaking, in the years that the index has delivered double-digit increases during the first three quarters of a year, it typically records a positive fourth quarter as well. <\/p>\n

The rally could be winding down and US equities are likely looking at a much leaner <\/strong>decade ahead<\/strong>, Goldman Sachs strategists including David Kostin said in a note, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. The investment bank sees S&P 500\u2019s annualized nominal returns clocking in at just 3% over the next 10 years, well below the long-term average of 11% and a far cry from the 13% recorded in the last decade. <\/p>\n

Bonds are the new black: <\/strong>The analysis suggests that equities will take a backseat as assets like bonds become more appealing. Goldman sees a 72% chance that the S&P 500 will underperform treasuries, and a 33% likelihood that it will lag behind inflation through to 2034, meaning investors should brace for lower-end stock market returns. <\/p>\n

Local + global conditions make it \u201cdifficult to get further upside\u201d:<\/strong> It\u2019s unlikely that the S&P 500 will continue to register the same levels of return growth, Deutsche Bank analysts also said. <\/p>\n

\u201cWith a soft economic landing increasingly priced in, it feels more difficult to get further upside growth surprises from here,\u201d the analysts said, particularly when considering potential external shocks from geopolitical turmoil. <\/p>\n

Big tech is delaying the slide, but won\u2019t save the day: <\/strong>While the S&P 500 has bounced back by 23% this year, the boost was largely driven by a few tech giants. Goldman\u2019s team anticipates broader returns in the years to come, predicting that the equal-weighted S&P 500 will outperform the market cap-weighted benchmark. Even if the tech-heavy rally continues, average returns won\u2019t top 5% \u2014 remaining below the historical norm.<\/p>\n

ALSO WORTH NOTING- <\/p>\n

Europe wants its very own SEC:<\/strong> The European Securities and Markets Authority (Esma) is making a bid to become the EU\u2019s equivalent of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with Esma seeing the need for greater centralization in supervising the bloc\u2019s capital markets, President Verena Ross tells the Financial Times<\/a>. The Paris-based watchdog aims to tighten its grip on Europe\u2019s stock exchanges and financial infrastructure, seeking to revitalize the region's markets and boost investor confidence amid rising demand for capital.<\/p>\n

Not everyone\u2019s on board: <\/strong>Smaller EU member states like Luxembourg and Ireland are pushing back, worried the plan could undermine their local markets which rely more on localized authority. Meanwhile, bigger players like France and Germany are all for the move, seeing the benefits of syncing regulations across borders. \u201cLet\u2019s evaluate in which areas it would make sense to move a step further to central EU supervision,\u201d Ross added. <\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

US futures are a sea of red this morning, extending yesterday\u2019s downturn and dragging down early trading in Asia-Pacific markets.<\/strong> Japan\u2019s benchmark Nikkei is firmly in the red this morning, while Hong Kong\u2019s HSI is timidly in the green.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,445<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.1% (YTD: +22.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.73<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.69<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,008<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,275<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,478<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +10.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,854<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +22.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,358<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +8.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,941<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +9.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 74.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,739<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 67,697<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6% (YTD: +60.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 3.1% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.2 bn (3.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 22.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Oriental Weavers (+18.7%), Edita (+12.8%), and Palm Hills Developments (+9.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.1%) Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -USD (-0.2%).. <\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

#1- Heliopolis Housing and Development\u2019s general assembly approved a decision <\/strong>to <\/strong>raise the company\u2019s issued capital to EGP 1 bn<\/strong>, up from EGP 333.8 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The increase will be distributed across 1.3 bn shared with a nominal value of EGP 0.25 each.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

#2- Mohandes Life Ins.\u2019 assembly approved paying out dividends worth EGP 70 <\/strong>mn on its FY 2023-2024 earnings<\/strong>, with the parent company and 99.9% owner of the subsidiary Mohandes Ins. receiving EGP 69.93 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf<\/a>)<\/a>. Mohandes Life Ins. will also distribute EGP 35 mn in free shares, raising its capital to EGP 285 mn. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 has been on a two-year bull run<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":653761,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-653760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"aae902cb-0eb4-4cd2-94db-a15f16b65cc1","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1847.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The (gains) party on Wall Street could be winding down","related_issue":[653738],"teaser":"The S&P 500 has been on a two-year bull run","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.5418d4e8-f155-4db2-8581-96f5a6d056e0.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe (gains) party on Wall Street could be winding down - 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