{"id":653583,"date":"2024-10-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/20\/central-bank-holds-interest-rates-in-line-with-expectations\/"},"modified":"2024-10-20T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-20T00:00:00","slug":"central-bank-holds-interest-rates-in-line-with-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/20\/central-bank-holds-interest-rates-in-line-with-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Central bank holds interest rates in line with expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Steady, as she goes: <\/strong>The Central Bank of Egypt left record high interest rates unchanged on Thursday, it said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>, citing upside risks to the nation\u2019s inflationary trajectory and stable economic growth. \u201cThe current policy rates remain appropriate to maintain the prevailing tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is realized,\u201d the bank said. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Where rates stand:<\/strong> The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the overnight deposit rate at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and discount rates at 27.75%. <\/p>\n

Four in a row: <\/strong>Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a <\/a>600 bps rate<\/a>hike<\/a> following a surprise monetary policy meeting in March in conjunction with the float of the EGP and a larger loan package from the IMF being approved soon after. Rates have now remained unchanged for four consecutive MPC meetings \u2014 the committee left rates untouched when <\/a>it met in May<\/a>, <\/a>July<\/a>, September<\/a>, and most recently last week.<\/p>\n

The gradual cooling of inflation is far from <\/strong>guaranteed<\/strong>: <\/strong>Despite a global cooling of inflation and growing confidence at home that inflation\u2019s on a downward trajectory, upside risks remain, according to the CBE. The bank referred to international commodity prices \u2014 especially for energy \u2014 as having shown \u201cvolatility due to supply chain disruptions, stemming from geopolitical tensions, and adverse weather conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

This concern makes sense \u2014 inflation accelerated for two consecutive months in <\/strong>September: <\/strong>Expectations that the bank would hold off on rate cuts were only bolstered by the country\u2019s most recent inflation data showing inflation accelerating in September<\/a> for a second consecutive month. Despite a fall in food and beverage price inflation, an increase in the prices of gas<\/a>, electricity<\/a>, and fuel<\/a> drove the rate of inflation up throughout the month \u2014 and over the weekend we got news of another fuel hike.<\/p>\n

But the overall picture is far from gloomy: <\/strong>Although annual headline urban inflation ticked up 0.2 percentage points from the month before<\/a> to 26.4% in September, the figure still places the rate of inflation a whole 11.6 percentage points below the record 38.0% recorded during the same period last year<\/a>. The bank thinks that the downturn in food inflation and improved inflation expectations show that inflation \u201cremains on a downward trajectory, albeit restrained by the drag of fiscal measures,\u201d adding that inflation is expected to stabilize in 4Q 2024 and begin declining again in 1Q 2025.<\/p>\n

Keeping up economic growth is also a consideration: <\/strong>Although the bank describes the nation's economic growth as \u201cbroadly stable,\u201d it cautions that it is still susceptible to the \u201cdampening effect of monetary tightening.\u201d<\/p>\n

The CBE\u2019s assessment is backed up by the data:<\/strong> S&P Global\u2019s most recent Egypt Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report showed activity in the country\u2019s non-oil private sector falling back into contraction<\/a> in September after having been in the green for the first and only time since November 2020. Business activity is now at its lowest since April. <\/p>\n

All the analysts we spoke to were on the money:<\/strong> The 11 analysts and economists polled by<\/a>EnterpriseAM<\/a> last week forecasted the CBE\u2019s decision to keep rates unchanged, pointing to inflationary pressures and growing geopolitical tensions. \u201cThe CBE's primary objective continues to be stabilizing inflation and managing market expectations. While the backdrop of global monetary easing presents an opportunity for potential rate reductions, the CBE is likely to prioritize controlling inflation over any monetary policy easing in response to other economic indicators,\u201d economic analyst Dina El Wakkad said.<\/p>\n

Some corners of the international press also picked up<\/strong> the story: <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/a>, who EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha told that authorities are in no rush to cut rates at the moment as they are probably cautious of a \u201cpotential second-round effect from energy-price rises.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM forecasted the decision to keep rates on hold<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":653584,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-653583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c4bed02c-b3fa-4955-ae1b-a01331a235c6","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/828.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves rates unchanged in line with expectations","related_issue":[653578],"teaser":"All 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM forecasted the decision to keep rates on hold","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.43caf4a2-b2ae-4c2a-a051-ffc13c06546b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCentral bank holds interest rates in line with expectations - 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The overnight deposit rate was held steady at 18.75% while the overnight lending rate was kept the same at 19.75%. Annual urban headline inflation rate increased to 33% in July on account of numerous subsidy cuts and a slight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":657902,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/12\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-unchanged-for-sixth-time-in-a-row\/","url_meta":{"origin":653583,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates unchanged for sixth time in a row","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 December 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The decision \u201cremains appropriate to maintain a tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is achieved\u201d","rel":"","context":"In 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