{"id":653472,"date":"2024-10-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/17\/world-bank-trims-egypts-growth-forecast-to-3-5\/"},"modified":"2024-10-17T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T00:00:00","slug":"world-bank-trims-egypts-growth-forecast-to-3-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/17\/world-bank-trims-egypts-growth-forecast-to-3-5\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank trims Egypt\u2019s growth forecast to 3.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"

World B<\/strong>ank revises downward ou<\/strong>r growth outlook for FY 2024-2025: <\/strong>The international lender sees the Egyptian economy growing at a 3.5% clip during the fiscal year 2024-2025, trimming its outlook 0.7 percentage points from the 4.2% forecasted in June<\/a>, the World Bank said in its semi-annual MENA economic update \u2014 Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

To blame: <\/strong>The lender sees Suez Canal revenues falling to USD 4.8 bn this fiscal year, almost half the USD 8.8 bn recorded during the fiscal year 2022-2023 and down 27% from the USD 6.6 bn recorded during FY 2023-2024<\/a>. This comes as escalating risks in the Red Sea continue to drive shipping companies away from the canal. Alongside this, \u201cthe uncertainty of the conflict looms large over portfolio investments, heightening investors\u2019 apprehension across the region.\u201d <\/p>\n

That\u2019s the best-case scenario: <\/strong>The lender cautioned that its forecast is made \u201cunder the assumption that the conflict will not worsen,\u201d explaining that should the conflict escalate further, it could lead to \u201cnegative spillovers\u201d that could very much affect growth \u2014 further escalations will impact business and consumer confidence, tourism, outflows, and financial conditions. <\/p>\n

A<\/strong> little less optimistic than the government\u2019s forecast: <\/strong>The Madbouly government sees the<\/a>economy growing at a 4.0% clip<\/a> this fiscal year<\/p>\n

All in all, we\u2019re growing: <\/strong>Despite the downward revision, the economy is still expected to grow from last fiscal year\u2019s 2.5% growth estimate by the lender and the 2.4% figure provided by the government. <\/p>\n

Inflation is on a downward trajectory:<\/strong> While deemed the highest in the region, inflation in Egypt \u201chas been on a declining trend.\u201d The report attributed this to the CBE\u2019s decision to float the EGP, unify the exchange rate against the USD, and hike rates in March \u2014 a policy mainly aimed to address the persistent inflationary pressures, according to the report.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>Annual headline urban inflation ticked up for a second month in September<\/a>, rising 0.2 percentage points from the month before to 26.4%. Some see inflation rising a third consecutive month in October as recent price hikes feed in. However, the outlook for the rest of 4Q is more positive and even more optimistic walking into 2025. <\/p>\n

REGIONALLY- <\/strong>The lender now sees the MENA region growing 2.2% this year, down from the 2.8% forecasted over the summer but up from the 1.8% recorded in 2023. \u201cOver the past year, MENA\u2019s 2024 real GDP growth forecasts have been substantially downgraded, with the largest<\/p>\n

downward revisions among fragile and conflict-affected situations,\u201d according to the report. The region is expected to grow 3.8% next year \u2014 down from an earlier forecast of 4.2%. <\/p>\n

The worry: <\/strong>\u201cEconomic\u202funcertainty in MENA\u202fis currently twice the average of other emerging markets and developing economies worldwide,\u201d the report writes, saying its estimate is based on its measure of \u201cthe dispersion of views amongst private sector forecasters.\u201d<\/p>\n

What to watch for next: <\/strong>The report is out ahead of the kickoff next week of the World Bank and<\/a>IMF Annual Meetings<\/a> in Washington, DC. The meetings run Monday, 21 October through Saturday, 26 October, with the main events taking place 22-25 October. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The forecast is 0.7 percentage points below the 4.2% forecasted in June<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":653473,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-653472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c28d504b-997b-4403-8f2f-c04a2a80b6b1","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1412.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"World 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