{"id":653408,"date":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/16\/global-debt-outlook-worse-than-expected-imf-says\/"},"modified":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","slug":"global-debt-outlook-worse-than-expected-imf-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/10\/16\/global-debt-outlook-worse-than-expected-imf-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Global debt outlook \u201cworse than expected,\u201d IMF says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crossing the USD 100 tn mark:<\/strong> Global public debt is on track to surpass USD 100 tn by year\u2019s end, representing 93% of global GDP, the IMF said in a blog<\/a> ahead of the full release of its October 2024 Fiscal Monitor report<\/a>, which is due to be published in full next week. Public debt is also set to exceed 100% by 2030, 10 percentage points above 2019 levels before the pandemic ushered in higher fiscal spending. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

Worst-case scenario: <\/strong>Slower economic growth, tighter borrowing conditions, fiscal \u201cslippages,\u201d and economic and political uncertainty could see global debt soaring to 115% of global GDP within three years, the IMF says. Higher uncertainty in major economies such as the US could also create ripple effects increasing borrowing costs for more vulnerable countries. <\/p>\n

Driving the rise in fiscal debt:<\/strong> The IMF warns that, although two-thirds of countries are expected to see their public debt levels \u201cstabilize or decline,\u201d the debt outlook for many others may be \u201cworse than expected.\u201d Budget demands due to aging populations and healthcare needs, the green transition, and geopolitical uncertainty have \u201ctilted\u201d the political discourse towards greater fiscal spending, placing added pressures on state coffers. Countries also tend to be overly optimistic with regards to their debt forecasts and consistently underestimate future debt burdens. <\/p>\n

Also a culprit? Unidentified debt:<\/strong> Countries are also facing a pileup of what the IMF calls \u201cunidentified debt,\u201d which the multilateral lender says has historically stood at 1-1.5% of GDP on average. That rate \u201cincreases sharply during periods of financial stress,\u201d the IMF notes. Unidentified debt \u201cstems from contingent liabilities and fiscal risks government face, of which most are related to losses in state-owned enterprises.\u201d<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> Emerging markets are also facing a wall of debt that many could struggle to repay, with a handful of countries at risk of defaulting over the next decade, S&P Global has said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As inflation and interest rates come down, it\u2019s time to get moving on fiscal<\/strong> improvements:<\/strong> Cooling inflation and the start of the global monetary easing cycle mean that economies are in a better position today to absorb adverse effects from budget cuts, the IMF says. Economies should make use of this window to roll out budget cuts while seeking a \u201cjudicious mix of people- and growth-focused fiscal measures\u201d that balance the needs of low income individuals and economic output and growth, the multilateral lender said. Most economies will have to cut their budgets by about 3.8% of GDP over the next six years to see improvement, with China and the US requiring stronger measures to stabilize public debt.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are down in early trading this morning<\/strong>, mirroring declines yesterday on Wall Street. The Nikkei is down the most (-2.0%), but the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and ASX are all in the red. <\/p>\n

Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures are little changed <\/strong>in overnight trading, while the FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC 40 all look set to open in the red later this morning. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,584<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +22.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 48.49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 48.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,002<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,283<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,470<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,825<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +22.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,249<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +6.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,947<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.9% (YTD: +9.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 74.69<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.50<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,679<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 66,580<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +57.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 1.0% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 4.6 bn (14.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 22.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Juhayna (+7.7%), Edita (+7.1%), and E-finance (+5.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Oriental Weavers (-1.5%), AMOC (-1.1%), and Credit Agricole (-1.1%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Edita will pay out a dividend of EGP 0.571 per share<\/strong> on its 2023 earnings, after its board approved the move, according to a disclosure (pdf)<\/a> to the EGX. The decision will now be passed onto the local snack maker's ordinary general assembly for the final greenlight. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Public debts are expected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2030<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":653409,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[7106,72,119,272,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-653408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-imf","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7523e446-a797-4462-afb6-faee576c31d4","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1284.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF paints \u201cworse than expected\u201d picture of global debt outlook, passing USD 100 tn mark in 2024","related_issue":[653387],"teaser":"Public debts are expected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2030","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.eb9c23c6-ff0c-4054-ac84-4a8f923a5b1e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal debt outlook \u201cworse than expected,\u201d IMF says - 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The Global Debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2601.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561467,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/egypt-on-surer-fiscal-ground-more-debt-relief-agreed-imf-backs-wealth-tax\/","url_meta":{"origin":653408,"position":1},"title":"Egypt on surer fiscal ground + more debt relief agreed + IMF backs wealth tax","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF upgrades Egypt budget projections in latest outlook: Egypt\u2019s public finances have withstood the test of covid-19 better than previously thought, new projections released by the IMF indicate. Figures in the Fund\u2019s latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf) suggest that the outlook for Egypt\u2019s fiscal position has improved over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543023,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/02\/egypt-to-ride-the-recovery-wave-as-world-economy-set-to-surpass-usd-100-tn-in-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":653408,"position":2},"title":"Egypt to ride the recovery wave as world economy set to surpass USD 100 tn in 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Global GDP is set to surpass a record USD 100 tn in 2022, with growth expected to hit 4.2% this year, according to the World Economic League Table (WELT) from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). That\u2019s two years earlier than the UK-based think tank previously expected the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/374.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582148,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/02\/govt-to-miss-deficit-debt-targets-on-higher-rates-import-bill\/","url_meta":{"origin":653408,"position":3},"title":"Gov\u2019t to miss deficit, debt targets on higher rates, import bill","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is now predicting a debt level of 93.0% of GDP by June 2023","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/Finance-Ministry-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556183,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/14\/egypts-budget-deficit-is-expected-to-narrow-to-6-3-of-gdp-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":653408,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit is expected to narrow to 6.3% of GDP \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit is still expected to narrow by the end of the current fiscal year, but will shrink at a slower pace over the next several years than previously expected, the IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf). The IMF now sees the budget deficit narrowing to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/157.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597874,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/07\/interest-burden-on-em-governments-grows-dramatically-amid-borrowing-spree\/","url_meta":{"origin":653408,"position":5},"title":"Interest burden on EM governments grows dramatically amid borrowing spree","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EM governments face dramatically higher interest burden amid borrowing spree: Interest owed by emerging-market governments has risen dramatically over the past decade as borrowing levels soar, the FT writes. Statistics published by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows that debt-to-GDP levels among developing economies has risen to 49.7% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/1569.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/653408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=653408"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/653408\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/653387"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/653409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=653408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=653408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=653408"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=653408"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=653408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}